Quote:Half a season is a sample size that can be quite deceiving.

 

Especially against the kind of competition that the Jaguars faced.

 

We have people on this board that are predicting levels of performance out of Henne in 2014 that are unprecedented from him except for the small sample at the end of the 2013 season.

 

I'll say that nothing is impossible, but when you get an outlier performance it likely is just that rather than being the new norm.

 

Honestly it isn't hard to argue that the second half of last season is the MOST relevant chunk of his career to examine when trying to predict his performance next year, and potentialy further into the future.

 

Prior to the start of last season the the Jaguars had experienced large changes in management coaching and personnel every year and on a couple of occasions during the year, this creates a pretty dodgy environment if you are trying to use old statistics to project how a player will perform in the future due to the lack of experimental control.

 

Going into this year he should have the same:

Owner

GM

Coach

OC

QB

 

The last time he had a similar environment? 2010.

 

2013: New coach/GM/OC

2012: New Coach/OC/QB

2011: New QBs/Owner (late)/ Coach (late)

 

I am not saying that he will continue to do well.  I am saying that due to the large number of variables, data prior to last season is basically useless.

 

Since he was injured for the first 6 games of last year, he only played in 10 games.  Projecting his stats for a full year based on those 10 games would yield 574 yards and 6TDs.  This would put him in the top half of the league for TE passing stats.

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