Awhile back I saw an article stating that every BCS champion had at least 50% of their recruiting classes as 4 or 5 star recruits or Blue Chips for the previous 4 years. This rule really proved its merit last year as Auburn and FSU were both part of the 9 teams that fit the criteria despite no one considering Auburn a preseason favorite. The others were Alabama, UF, LSU, Notre Dame, USC, Ohio State, and Texas. Looking at Auburn's example, I figured I'd find the teams that have been recruiting well that have perhaps been underperforming and could break out this year.

 

For the upcoming season the teams that fit the recruiting profile of a BCS champion are:

 

#2 Alabama - 67.7% Blue Chip rate

#15 USC - 67.1% Blue Chip rate (However has about 20 fewer commitments than these others due to probation)

#6 Ohio State - 63.2% Blue Chip rate

#13 LSU - 58.1% Blue Chip rate

Unranked UF - 56.8% Blue Chip rate

#1 FSU - 56.7% Blue Chip rate

#5 Auburn - 56.5% Blue Chip rate

#17 Notre Dame - 55.2% Blue Chip rate (However has about 10 fewer commitments for no reason I can find)

#24 Texas - 54.5% Blue Chip rate

#12 UGA - 51.5% Blue Chip rate

 

This leads me to think UF and Texas are underrated and could be in the hunt given they avoid the ever unpredictable injury bugs and/or bad QB play. I'm seeing a playoff including SEC champ, FSU, Ohio State, and PAC 12 champ which won't be Oregon.

 

The next tier that are between 40% and 50% include:

 

Unranked Michigan 47.7%

#7 UCLA 47.6%

#11 Stanford 46.4%

Unranked Tennessee 45.0%

#4 Oregon 41.0%

#20 TAMU 40.9%

 

Michigan's coaching will hold them back again, but Tennessee is dangerous and TAMU has more young talent than people realize. TAMU has often been cited as overrated this year, but I disagree.

 

Notable teams not included in the above list include:

 

#3 Oklahoma 39.8%

#8 Michigan State 19.0%

#9 South Carolina 33.3%

#10 Baylor 10.2%

#16 Clemson 39.4%

Unranked UM 31.9%

 

I would mark Baylor down for a collapse, but other than OU and Texas there's no one to threaten them. Same for Michigan State. Despite being very thin there isn't enough talent in the Big 10 to give them a lot of losses. But they will be stomped by Ohio State again. Despite losing a lot, Clemson will be good again, and UM could have a breakout year if they find a QB.

 

 

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