Quote:The comparison to a coin flip is bad for a number of reasons. Statistical probability and trend analysis are related but not equivalent.


A player is not a coin. A good player who is playing well should continue more or less to perform similarly from game to game unless some event has an impact on his performance (health, going up against an unusually talented opponent, benching, etc.) That's what allows us to extrapolate with some degree of confidence.

 

My point is there is a significant degree of randomness in the per game performance of any player.

 

The important part is the trend, not the individual games, and the trend for Marcedes is that of a marginal receiving TE.

 

We could go back and cherry pick games where Chad Henne or Gabbert looked pretty decent, same for Jason Hill or Mike Thomas.

 

Marcedes has had the good fortune of being signed long term and to be considered a low enough priority to not be replaced up to this point.

 

A player isn't a coin, but the variance of conditions over a single game have a large impact on performance. If the DB falls down and Marcedes catches a long TD pass does that make him a good player, or did he just have a good statistical performance because an unusual situation happened?

 

However, I expect the rising tide of Bortles to raise all ships, including Marcedes.

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