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UCF Knight · 10-24-2014, 02:24 PM

Quote:I really don't think they're accounting enough for the fact that all those SEC schools still have a lot of games against each other. With 4 very good teams in the playoffs you'd expect the best odds of winning two in row to become champions close to 4:1 given you've made the playoffs. Simple math says they're giving Alabama and Ole Miss approximately an 80% chance of making the playoffs and Georgia a 67% chance. The next batch at 7:1 would all be about 57%.

Not including the 10:1 or higher, there's an implied expected 4.55 teams in the playoff. Once you include those, the number goes up even further.

Vegas always overstates the odds because it increases their profit margin, but this is WAY over. Especially for the SEC teams. Based on the given odds, the expected number of SEC teams in the playoff is about 3.23 once you add in LSU at about 40%.

Bad bets all around except for the top non-SEC teams.

I think thats what they are accounting for though...they know at least one of those schools is going to make the championship. If its up to Vegas and they think whatever SEC team makes it out of that conference has the best shot, then thats how they are making the odds.