It's pretty clear their two criteria are 1) Record and 2) Quality wins

 

Record is clearly #1 because FSU is ahead of the SEC teams with tougher schedules and better wins (according to committee rankings)

 

Mississippi State has beaten Auburn and FSU has beaten Notre Dame

 

Auburn has beaten Kansas State and LSU

Ole Miss has beaten Alabama

Oregon's best win is Michigan State

Alabama's best win is West Virginia

 

That means that FSU has a good shot as a 1-loss team as long as Notre Dame and Clemson win out. Oregon controls their own destiny because you won't have three 1-loss SEC teams all with better wins than Michigan State. Too much playing each other.

 

A 2-Loss SEC team will NOT make the playoffs. All the undefeated teams are ahead of all the 1-loss. Almost all the 1-loss teams are ahead of all the 2-loss. The exceptions, East Carolina and Duke, have played ridiculously weak schedules including no one in the top 25 of their poll.

 

Clearly prior reputation and the eye-test aren't as important looking at Alabama being behind Oregon. I hope to see a lot of movement week to week after teams get quality wins. So far, I like that they didn't echo the polls and their internal logic seems to be consistent.

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