Quote:Home field advantage is not as big of an advantage in the NFL as it is in college football and that is proven by statistics. It's pretty obvious when you think about it:

1. College football stadiums are usually significantly larger.

2. College football fanbases are usually much more passionate and loud.

3. NFL players are paid professionals. College players are 18-22 year old kids and are much more likely to be rattled.

 

 

 

Have you ever taken a probability course? Even if all factors were equal and everyone had a 50% chance in every game, winning three straight (what the 6 seed would need to do) has a 12.5% chance of happening. Winning two straight (what the 1 seed would need to do), has a 25% chance of happening.

 

The thing is, it isn't a 50/50 chance. Even if the two teams were identical, the home team is the favorite. This is pretty obvious and is the reason why bookies give 3 to 4 points to the Home team. If the spread was 0 on a neutral site, the spread would be ~3.5 points at home. A fair assessment would be: All other things being equal, the home team has a 60% of winning.

 

So, now, even if the teams were identical, you'd have these odds for the #6 seed and #1 seed:

#6.. Game 1: 40% (road). Game 2: 40% (road). Game 3: 50% (neutral). Total probability.... 8%.

#1.. Game 1: 60% (home). Game 2 50% (neutral). Total probability.... 30%

 

And THEN you have to factor in the bye week. Coming off a bye week is roughly a 5% increase in win probability. That brings us to:

#6.. Game 1: 40% (road). Game 2: 35% (road). Game 3: 50% (neutral). Total probability.... 7%.

#1.. Game 1: 65% (home). Game 2 50% (neutral). Total probability.... 32.5%

 

 

That is a huge difference for teams that are identical in every other facet.