We aren't going to see eye to eye on it, and we are both very educated baseball fans, so we should really just agree to disagree.

 

1. Most managers will handle a lot of situations the same as others. If the 8 hitter leads off an inning with a single, I can't think of many managers that will have their pitcher swing away. In those cases, it is statistically better for the pitcher to bunt. While this is a very obvious situation, the same concept can be applied to other in-game situations.

 

2. You don't "beat" sabermetrics. Sabermetics provides tools in baseball decision making. It isn't something you beat or lose to.

 

3. Sabermetrics emphasizes focusing on large sample sizes, not individual occurrences. If I had a six-side die and gave you 1:1 odds on rolling a 6, would it be a smart decision to take that bet? No. Let's say you took the bet and I rolled a 6. Was it a smart bet now? The answer is still no. If someone pops up 90% of their bunts, do you still have him sac bunt? No. If you did have him sac bunt 10 times, and the 10th time was successful, does that make it the smart decision? Still no.

 

4. Using individual situations and hindsight is going to result in nothing more than confirmation bias. What if the player had hit a game winning home run, but instead gave up an out? What if the reliever comes in and strikes out the side? What if the gassed starter would have given up an RBI double instead? Because of these uncertainties, it's almost always the correct decision to go with the odds. 

 

 

Again, neither of us are going to change our mind, so I just suggest we agree to agree.

---