In the Week 12 Interest thread I said I thought FSU would lose one of their games to instate rivals.  Was kind of banking on Miami being that game... so now I'm stuck with Florida having to do so.  I think it's possible.  FSU is good but not great.  And Florida, while inconsistent and saddled with poor coaching, has talent.  And if they put it all together has enough players to hang with FSU.

 

I will say though I dont think its a great matchup for Florida.  The way to beat FSU is through the air.  Their run defense is pretty solid but the secondary can be picked on.  Which isnt what Florida does well.  When they win, or play well, they do so by running the ball and controlling the clock.  Now obviously if Florida can do that to FSU, that would be ideal... limit the number of possessions the Noles have.  I just dont think theyll be able to.

The other thing is FSU has had to come from behind against a bunch of good but not great teams.  Miami, Louisville, Notre Dame, Virginia, NC State... etc... some are average, some are good, none are really good or even great.  The one thing they all have in common, aside from Notre Dame, is that they are all just ok on offense.  None of them had enough offense to keep scoring points in the 2nd half to pull off the upset.  Notre Dame is the only one with a good offense and obviously they were a controversial call away from winning.  A good offensive team can beat the Noles because they could just out score them.  None of those teams they almost lost to could do that.  And frankly I'm not sure Florida can either.  Offense just isnt good enough.

 

Saying all that you just never know with rivalry games.  And maybe Muschamp, who has nothing to lose, wont play so conservatively.  And again, Florida has a ton of talent.  But they just havent maximized it.  Catch them on a good day though and they'll definitely put up a fight.

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