The other thread got side-tracked, so.  With today's loss the Jags were eliminated from the playoffs.  Therefore I wanted to see what is the WORST spot they can draft.

 

Just by not not making the playoffs the Jags can do no worse than the 19th pick because 12 teams make the playoffs.

 

However, in the AFC, in the North and East there are already 5 teams with 7 wins and only 4 at most can get into playoffs, so one of those teams will miss the playoffs and be behind us in draft, so we are at least number 18.

 

Then you can add San Diego who has 6 wins (which is the most Jax can have) but they have the 4th hardest strength of schedule (SOS) and we have 4th easiest, so they will also be behind us, which gives us number 17.

 

Over in the NFC, it also will now take 7 wins minimum to make the wild card.  That leaves Seattle and SF both of whom have 6 wins. They have the 5th and 6th hardest SOS, and will be behind us if they fail to make the playoffs.   That moves us to 15

 

I am not yet penciling in Miami or Baltimore with 6 wins because their SOS is not overwhelmingly better than ours, so...

 

Halfway thru the week's games on 11/23/2014, the Jags are guaranteed to pick no lower than number 15. 

 

 

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