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Blasphemy: If they're available, should the Jags draft Mariota or Winston?

#40
(This post was last modified: 12-18-2014, 05:29 PM by Vicus.)

I'd say if you rate him as equal to Bortles or even a little bit higher, you try to trade back with a QB needy team. There is just no point in blowing our third first in five years on another QB. 

 

Look at the (simplified) math. If 50% of first round QBs have serviceable careers (VERY optimistic), the probability of finding at least one good QB when selecting them back to back only increase to 75%. Is it really worth the draft equity to improve your odds by 25%? Remember that there aren't enough snaps to develop two QBs simultaneously and only one of them can be on the field at any given time. Sure, there is hitting on both picks (25%) and trading one of them away for picks, but would you actually get enough value from the trade to make the whole ordeal worth it?

 

Jags would be much better off focusing on improving other positions of need than gambling again. Plenty of late round QB prospects to scout and develop.


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Blasphemy: If they're available, should the Jags draft Mariota or Winston? - by Vicus - 12-18-2014, 05:29 PM



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