Quote:We are all aware of the "rules" of the draft. Only DLine, OLine, QBs and WRs shalt be taken in the first five picks. Thou shalt not pick a running back in the first round etc...


But are these rules really based on fact or on assumptions ?


I'm bringing it up because I've seen it written a few times here recently that we should avoid picking a RB in the first two rounds, with the reasoning being that we are just as likely to find a capable back in the later rounds. But is that true ?


This is a genuine question and I don't know the answer, I was wondering if any research had been done to prove this ?


You would probably need to look at the number of RBs selected in each round over a ten year time span and then work out what proportion of them turned out to be high performers (maybe ask if they are pro bowlers or if they ran 1000yd seasons). Then we would know if it is true that RBs selected in the later rounds are just as likely to succeed or whether you improve your chances by taking them early.


And if this research hasn't been done, can anyone explain what this assumption is based on ? (The assumption that there is no advantage in drafting a RB early).

 

The assumptions are true, and based on fact.  I'd say maybe you are looking at the rules backwards.  The reasons you draft the positions you mentioned in the the top 5 picks is that you are unlikely to fill those positions later in the draft.   Just look at the top players in each position and evaluate their draft position and there would be a pattern leading you to believe certain positions required higher picks than others to get an elite player.   The reason you wouldn't draft a RB that high is because being in position to draft a premier position is a rare occasion but being in position to draft a RB is not.  There is a 15% chance a team gets a top 5 pick.  So on average a team may pick in the top 5 once every 7 years.  So when you finally get the opportunity to draft a player at a premier position, why blow it and pick a player you could have drafted any year?  

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