Quote:Yes, a few teams seem to manage just fine with a committee of unremarkable backs (The Parriots and the Broncos for instance, although both are helped by having big name QBs) but other teams would clearly be weaker if they lost their top quality RBs.


And yes, you could pick another measure of RB success if you wanted. Yards per carry maybe ? Career touchdowns ? But career yards seems a pretty good measure of a running backs success (and one which is frequently used).


But that's all beside the point.


The point is that you stand a higher chance of drafting a successful back if you select one in the early rounds. (I think those tables show that very clearly)


Saying that more current NFL RBs are those selected in the later rounds is misleading. There have simply been more RBs picked in later rounds, so its hardly surprising there are a lot of them around !


To illustrate that, suppose 100 RBs are selected in the draft. 10 in the first round and the remaining 90 in the others.


Of those, fifty percent of the first round RBs turn out to be high quality backs. But only twenty percent of the later-round backs turn out to be any good.


Looking at those totals, you would say that later-round backs produced 18 quality starters and there were only 5 first round backs.


So it's better to wait until the later rounds, right ?


Or would you agree that is the wrong measure of success ?


We only usually select 1 RB in a draft, not 100, so if you want a quality one, doesn't it make sense to pick one early, rather than taking pot luck in the later rounds ?


(Having said all that I don't for a minute think we will use our first round pick on one, but I think there is a good argument for going RB in round 2)

 

You've convinced me.   I think the other posters are missing your point.   A running back picked in the first 2 rounds stands a better chance of success than a running back selected later.   It is not true that all running backs are equal, or that you stand just as good a chance of getting a good one in later rounds as in earlier rounds.   The reason so many later round RB picks succeed is just the law of numbers: so many are picked later, some of them are bound to succeed.   

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