Quote:Sure, it's a possibility.  We don't know what Dave's board looks like - but I'm saying if he's got the best player available on his board, let's take him.

 

The probability of hitting on later picks is smaller than when you pick #3 overall.  

 

Like I said, our roster is almost too young and too inexperienced, we don't need to add multiple rookies everywhere.  Hopefully some of the ones we drafted last year turn into superstars.  

The probability that the #3 pick is a home run might be greater than a single guy later in the 1st rd, but it is not likely to be greater than the combined probability of the multiple players you get from trading down.

 

On top of that, you get the possibility of hitting a home run multiple times with the multiple players acquired for the pick. That is an impossibility from the 1 pick alone.

 

We have seen time and time again that nothing is guaranteed with a top pick. Nothing wrong with picking a guy if you really believe his is worth the pick. but if you aren't sold on the player slotted at the top of the draft, then you basically find yourself in a crap shoot, and nothing increases you odds more in a crap shoot than getting more shots.

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