At what point is sufficient time to have developed a player?

To me, this is the critical question that someone (Khan?) has to answer. In a larger sense though, what will determine Gus's fate here will be the win/lose record more than if he was successful in 'developing talent'. Now, one would tend to assume that the one would effect the other; however, it's possible to have a very talented team... and go nowhere. On the other hand, we've seen teams that, overall, only had average talent who went to the playoffs. 

 

That being said, I think it's a general truism to expect that a coach who has better ability to develop talent will, in the long run, have a better win/lose record than one who isn't as adept at such development. It's that 'in the long run' part that's the fly in the ointment. What is a reasonable expectation of the amount of time required for the development of rookie talent? This is the same question, I just worded it a bit differently.

 

Anyway, at least on this forum the most commonly referenced amount of time is three years. I don't know what that three year time line expectation is based on, I'm just aware that I've seen it used over and over again on here. It may be that it has more to do with the fact that we happen to now be going into the third year of the rebuild and fans are getting tired of waiting to see positive results. It's getting really old to be compared to the buc's and lions as one of the league's historically bad teams, particularly when we were (back in the TC days) at one time a very good team. Maybe there is some research on line somewhere showing that statistically talented rookies start to really shine at about the three year mark. If this is true, and if Gus is any good at developing rookie talent, and if we have some truly good rookie talent... then maybe we have something to look forward to this season.

 

On the other hand, that was a lot of 'if's to be considered. The last time I saw something posted on here about what Vegas was predicting we stood at a 5.5 season. That isn't a .500 season, but it may be enough to dissuade Khan from putting Gus on the hot seat... yet. Some would argue that going 5-11 or 6-10 is the worst of both possible outcomes; it's another losing season while being enough to prevent us from getting a top 10 draft pick. I guess that's the 'glass is always half empty' view. Others would point out that going 6-10 would be the best season we've seen around here in years; and while that's true it it nevertheless... pathetic.

 

Even so, it may be the start of an upward trend. Many on this forum have mentioned that the real expectation for this team to 'come alive' is in 2016... next season. And while this perhaps may be so, almost all of us are sick and tired of hearing 'next season, next season'.

 

If anything is going to put Gus on the 'hot seat', it's going to be because Khan is aware of fan sentiment and being the businessman that he is, he will act to rectify fan dissatisfaction to the best of his ability. We have outstanding facilities, we have (arguably) more talent on the roster now than we've had in years; the great question mark that is left is the coach.

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