Looking at raw stats like that is going to be misleading... he had a very good rookie year, but acting like it's going to be an indicator of stardom is probably misguided. In reality he got off to a hot start in his first few weeks, then faded down the stretch, and was passed on the depth chart by Marqise Lee. 

 

First 4 games: 12 catches, 254 yards, 3 TDs, 21.2 YPC (3 - 64 - 0.75 per game)

Last 12 games: 39 catches, 423 yards, 3 TDs, 10.8 YPC (3 - 35 - 0.25 per game)

Last 7 games*: 22 catches, 211 yards, 1 TD, 9.6 YPC (3 - 30 - 0.14 per game)

 

*Yeah this is purely an arbitrary endpoint after a 100 yard game, but being ineffective for the last 7 games of the season is fairly significant. 

 

I don't much care for PFF's WR stats but for those who do, he was -9.8 overall. In the first 4 weeks he was +0.1, so that means over the last 12 weeks he was -9.9. 

 

Football Outsiders ranks him 75/87 and 74/87 in DVOA and DYAR respectively. 

 

Marqise Lee had more snaps than Allen Hurns in each of the last 3 games, with 61 - 52 - 54 (167) compared to Hurns' 54 - 37 - 32 (123). 

 

All of this combined with his limited pedigree (UDFA), limited athleticism (4.55 40, 31" vert, 10" broad, 4.5 shuttle, 7.23 3-cone), and propensity for drops would suggest to me his ceiling is limited.

 

Since he lost his starting job at the end of last year, and now with the return of Allen Robinson and the additions of Julius Thomas and Rashad Greene (Shorts leaving helps) I think expectations for Hurns' production should be tempered. I think it's assumed that the Jaguars' base offense will be 2 TE (Thomas/Lewis, obviously) and 2 WR (I would suggest Robinson and Lee are the frontrunners). I would expect Hurns to mostly compete with Rashad Greene for snaps in 3 WR formations. 

 

(Comparing Hurns to Robinson statistically and athletically is not going to end well for Hurns. It would be a stomp). 

 

Edit: I used 'and' twice in one sentence, must commit seppuku. 

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