Quote:And if the Congress manages to reject the deal, which is unlikely, what would be your prediction for what happens then?   Does Iran go ahead and develop nuclear weapons unconstrained by ongoing negotiations?   And does Israel then attack them, and ask us to come in and help them?   And does the Middle East choose up sides and all of them go to war?   Do you think that, absent this agreement, we are capable of keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon if it wants one? 

 

What happens if Congress manages to override the President and reject the deal?    

 

Very good questions, and I'll attempt to address each one.

 

The first, regarding Congress, I can see a very partisan battle going on, especially since we are getting into campaign season.  The key factor will be the Senate being able to garner a 2/3 majority to override a veto by The President.  As far as that goes, The President "fired the first shot" stating that he would veto anything against this deal (so much for "compromise" or "reaching across the aisle").

 

I expect a bill, or a multitude of bills to pass through The House and The Senate.  The bills will pass Congress mostly along party lines, and I expect them to get vetoed.  The key to any bill getting through will ultimately depend on having enough votes to override a veto from The President.  I don't see that happening, especially when "campaign season" is getting cranked up.  So Congress won't "object" to the deal in a meaningful way.

 

Iran is going to continue it's development of nuclear weapons, and they have been given more funds to do so.  If anyone thinks that they will follow this "deal" honorably, then they have no idea about how this regime (the Iranians) works.

 

I can't speak or speculate on what Israel will do, but I will say that if they see an increasing threat, they will in fact put a stop to the threat by any means necessary including military force.  If Israel does choose to use military force to stop the threat to them, in my mind we should "have their back".  The current administration will not do so, and what would happen is further chaos in the Middle East.  This scenario is a very real scenario that the incoming administration is going to have to address.

 

If Israel does choose to use military power against Iran, it will be a "scramble" to get any of the countries in the region to form any meaningful alliance, especially since the narrative and projection of our current administration has been very "passive".  Keep in mind, in the area we are viewed as being "weak".

 

If this agreement never happened, then yes, I do believe that we could prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.  Withholding cash to them via sanctions works (somewhat) and assurance that we would back Israel is another huge deterrent.  The other thing that many people don't think about or consider is our ability to "silently disrupt the program" (stuxntet).

 

Finally, if Congress did manage to override the President, it would be a good thing.  If that happens, then Iran doesn't get yet another "win" in the Middle East.  We used to be "feared" and now we are viewed as "weak".

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