The average Joe doesn't have a good understanding of how odds work. They also tend to be overconfident in their ability to beat the odds.

 

In reality, the difference in success rate of the top 10 picks is pretty insignificant, yet people believe with the number one pick they somehow have a greater chance for success than the statistical reality shows.

 

This overconfidence effect and the biases that come with it is so pervasive, that an entire field of finance has developed to take advantage of how people overvalue things and overestimate their abilities to make the best decisions. Entire markets fluctuate over these fallacies.

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