The respective schedules for the Colts and Texans aren't likely to matter for the Jags' playoff chances. The division will be decided in weeks 16 and 17 (and probably both).  

 

Both the Colts and the Texans will beat the Titans, especially since by Weeks 16 and 17 the Titans will be long eliminated. They're basically out after tonight's loss, absent winning out the rest of the way (yeah right). 

 

The Colts and the Texans already have half the tiebreaker and a better division record - 2 games better for the Colts. The problem for the Jags is they need Houston to beat Indy or they lose the division tiebreak against the Colts (since the Titans aren't gonna do it). If Houston does beat Indy then they're 4-1 in the division going into the Week 17 game with the Jags. 

 

In order for the Jags to clinch without week 17, they'd need to be two games up on Houston. The Jags only have 5 games left to play, and we've already factored wins over the Titans and Colts into Houston's column in this scenario. So unless the Jags can go 4-1 (and the Texans go 0-4 outside the division) or 5-0 (and the Texans don't do better than 1-3 outside the division) between now and week 17 - it pretty much comes down to the result of that last game.

 

On the other hand, if Houston loses to Indy then Jax has no hope of the tiebreaker and has to finish a game ahead of the Colts. In this scenario the Colts 1 game lead + Houston + Tennessee means that Jax must go at a minimum 2-1 outside the division, while hoping Indy goes 0-fer. Indy has games against Tampa Bay and Miami, plus longer shots vs Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Of course, for this scenario to matter at all, Jax has to beat Indy. 

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