RANKING THE DEFENSIVE ENDS IN THE 2016 DRAFT BASED UPON 2015 PRODUCTION (STATS)

 

Since pretty much we all know that the greatest need on the Jags roster is for more pass rush and production from their Defensive Ends.

 

Sure Dante Fowler Jr, when he comes back will hopefully improve the Jags Pass Rush, but given the premise that the Jags will most likely let Andre Branch, Chris Clemons and Chris Smith go in the off-season, either as a Free Agent or as a roster cut, this leaves a hole of at least two DE Pass Rushers. Assuming the Jags find one Pass Rush DE in Free Agency, then the team needs to find another in the draft. The question is which DE should they select in the draft and when?

 

Rather than worrying where the Jags select, let's evaluate the DE prospects coming out in the draft and let's base our evaluation on production stats, regardless of the number of games they played or the strength of the opponents they faced.

 

The three criteria used in this analysis include:

 

TT - Total Tackles - This is important because we would like all our defensive players to help stop the offensive players and Total Tackles is a stop

TFL - Tackles for Loss - Typically, TFL are an indication of how disruptive a player is and how many big plays he creates or is in on

Sacks - This is obviously the glamour stat for DE, but it too is an indication of the effectiveness of the DE as a Pass Rusher

 

Now let's look at the prospects.

 

Joey Bosa - DE - Ohio State - 6'6" 275 lbs - Thru 10 games: 44 TT; 15 TFL; 4 Sacks

 

Emmanuel Ogbah - DE - Oklahoma State - 6'4" 275 lbs - thru 11 games: 59 TT; 16.5 TFL; 12 Sacks

 

Shaq Lawson - DE - Clemson - 6'3" 275 Lbs - thru 11 games: 45 TT; 19 TFL; 7.5 Sacks

 

DeForest Buckner - DE - Oregon - 6'7" 290 lbs - thru 11 games: 69 TT; 14.5 TFL; 8.5 Sacks

 

Shilique Calhoun - DE - Michigan State - 6'5" 260 lbs - thru 11 games: 37 TT; 11.5 TFL; 8.5 Sacks

 

Jonathan Bullard - DE - Florida - 6'3" 283 Lbs - thru 11 games: 53 TT; 13.5 TFL; 5.5 Sacks

 

Shawn Oakman - DE - Baylor - 6'9" 280 Lbs - thru 9 games: 35 TT; 13 TFL; 4.5 Sacks

 

Carl Nassib - DE - Penn State - 6'7" 272 Lbs - thru 11 games: 46 TT; 19.5 TFL; 15.5 Sacks

 

Yannick Ngakoue - DE - Maryland - 6'2" 255 Lbs - thru 11 games: 37 TT; 15 TFL; 13.5 Sacks

 

Jonathan Allen - DE - Alabama - 6'3" 283 Lbs - thru 11 games: 26 TT; 11.5 TFL; 9 Sacks

 

Noah Spence - DE - Eastern Kentucky - 6'3" 265 Lbs - thru 11 games: 63 TT; 22.5 TFL; 11.5 Sacks

 

Bronson Kaufusi - DE - BYU - 6'7" 265 lbs - thru 11 games: 53 TT; 16 TFL; 10 Sacks

 

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Based upon the above stats, the Defensive Ends Ranks as follows in Total Tackles (TT)

 

1. DeForest Buckner - Oregon - 69 TT

2. Noah Spence - Eastern Kentucky - 63 TT

3. Emmanuel Ogbah - Oklahoma State - 59 TT

4. Jonathan Bullard - Florida - 53 TT

5. Bronson Kaufusi - BYU - 53 TT

6. Carl Nassib - Penn State - 46 TT

7. Shaq Lawson - Clemson - 45 TT

8. Joey Bosa - Ohio State - 44 TT

9. Shilique Calhoun - Michigan State - 37 TT

10. Yannick Ngakoue - Maryland - 37 TT

11. Shawn Oakman - Baylor - 35 TT

12. Jonathan Allen - Alabama - 26 TT

 

Based Upon the above prospect TFL stats, the ranking is as follows:

 

1. Noah Spence - Eastern Kentucky - 22.5 TFL

2. Carl Nassib - Penn State - 19.5 TFL

3. Shaq Lawson - Clemson - 19 TFL

4. Emmanuel Ogbah - Oklahoma State - 16.5 TFL

5. Bronson Kaufusi - BYU - 16 TFL

6. Joey Bosa - Ohio State - 15 TFL

7. Yannick Ngakoue - Maryland - 15 TFL

8. DeForest Buckner - Oregon - 14.5 TFL

9. Jonathan Bullard - Florida - 13.5 TFL

10. Shawn Oakman - Baylor - 13 TFL

11. Shilique Calhoun - Michigan State - 11.5 TFL

12. Jonathan Allen - Alabama - 11.5 TFL

 

Based upon the SACKS stat, the prospects rank as follows:

 

1. Carl Nassib - Penn State - 15.5 Sacks

2. Yannick Ngakoue - Maryland - 13.5 Sacks

3. Emmanuel Ogbah - Oklahoma State - 12 Sacks

4. Noah Spence - Eastern Kentucky - 11.5 Sacks

5. Bronson Kaufusi - BYU - 10 Sacks

6. Jonathan Allen - Alabama - 9 Sacks

7. DeForest Buckner - Oregon - 8.5 Sacks

8. Shilique Calhoun - Michigan State - 8.5 Sacks

9. Shaq Lawson - Clemson - 7.5 Sacks

10. Jonathan Bullard - Florida - 5.5 Sacks

11. Shawn Oakman - Baylor - 4 Sacks

12. Joey Bosa - Ohio State - 4 Sacks

 

If we weigh each of these three rankings and sum them up, the overall ranking is as follows:

 

1. Noah Spence - Eastern Kentucky -  7

2. Carl Nassib - Penn State - 9

3. Emmanuel Ogbah - Oklahoma State - 10

4. Bronson Kaufusi - BYU - 15

5. DeForest Buckner - Oregon - 16

6. Shaq Lawson - Clemson - 19

7. Yannick Ngakoue - Maryland - 19

8. Jonathan Bullard - Florida - 23

9. Joey Bosa - Ohio State - 26

10. Shilique Calhoun - Michigan State - 28

11. Jonathan Allen - Alabama - 30

12. Shawn Oakman - Baylor - 32

 

While STATS are NOT the END ALL - BE ALL, they do give us a clue in terms of the effectiveness of the prospect and the results of this analysis are a bit surprising when viewing the more highly rated prospects like

 

Joey Bosa - Ohio State and Shilique Calhoun - Michigan State

 

It should be noted that Carl Lawson - DE - Auburn was not included in this analysis due to the limited number of games he has played this year.

 

There is a consistent rumor that Carl Lawson will not declare for the 2016 college draft and will return to Auburn for the 2016 season.

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