It's not that complicated. The Jags can't get tiebreakers on either Indy or Houston at 8 wins. They can at 7 wins.

 

The reason for this is Jax has a 5-6 conference record with only one AFC game to play, and the other two have 4-5 with all three games to play in the AFC. Either Indy or Houston are guaranteed 7 regular wins and another AFC win (total of 5) this week since they play each other. If the Jags win @ Houston, they have a 6-6 AFC record, which would trump Houston/Indy if the tie was at 7 wins. However, if it is at 8 wins, that team would have another AFC win (since they don't play any non-AFC opponents).

 

Jags can't win the head to head tiebreaker - Because they've lost to Houston and Indy already.

Jags can't win the division record tiebreaker - Because Jax is limited to at most a 3-3 division record, while the Indy/Houston winner is guaranteed at least 3 division wins.

Jags can't win the common opponents tiebreaker - Because all three teams went 1-1 in their uncommon games.

Jags can't win the conference record tiebreaker at 8 wins - as noted above

Strength of Victory is theoretically possible - BUT Houston beat 10-win Cincy and Indy beat 10-win Denver, so Jags are unlikely to catch up in this regard, much less pass the others

Jags are guaranteed to lose the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker - Cincy + KC / Denver + Pitt vs ... 3 win San Diego + 4 win Baltimore

 

Without tiebreaks, Jacksonville's season comes down to neither Indy nor Houston reaching 8 wins and taking two out of three (Houston required) themselves. Three is better as it prevents an 4-2 division Indy (by virtue of beating the the Titans after losing to the Texans) from knocking J'ville out at 7 wins.

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