Quote:Thinking about it more, we cannot finish tied with Houston at 8-8 and win the division, even if we beat them to end the season.

 

Houston finishing 8-8 means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Their last three games are all divisional games, which would place their divisional record at 4-2, which is better than our divisional record.

 

Indy finishing 8-8 also means they would have gone 2-1 in their last three games.  Two of their last three games are divisional games (Houston and Tennessee).  This would place their divisional record at worst 4-2, which is better than our best possible divisional record of 3-3.

 

What if we all finish 7-9?

 

A 7-9 finish for Houston means they would have gone 1-2 in the last three games.  If one of the two losses is to Indy, that would give Indy the division based on the divisional record.  Houston would have to beat Indy then lose to Tennessee and us to close the season.  That would give them a 3-3 divisional record.

 

A 7-9 record for Indy also means they would have to go 1-2 the last three games.  Both of those two losses would have to be their divisional games.  That would give them and Jacksonville identical 3-3 divisional records, assuming Jacksonville went 2-1 down the stretch, beating Houston in week 17. 

 

 

If Indy beats Houston, they would need to lose the last two (Miami and Tennessee) and Jacksonville would have to win out for us to beat them out.

 

 

I have yet to process the lower tiebreakers.  Give me a few, and I will post.

 

If both Jax and Houston finish at 7-9 and Indy is at 6-10, we would win the tiebreaker.  Houston would have to beat Indy in that scenario and would have had to lose to both Tenn and us.  We could go 1-1 against Atl and NO and we'd win the division.

 

If all three of us (Jax, Houston, and Indy) finish at 7-9, we only win the tiebreaker if Houston beats Indy, we beat Houston, and Tenn beats both Houston and Indy.

 

The easiest way to think about this is to focus on the Houston-Indy game.  It is far and away more important than our game against Atlanta, which surprisingly doesnt change much whether we win or lose.  If Indy wins this weekend, they've all but clinched the division.  They would have to lose their remaining two games and either Houston or Jax would have to win their remaining games.  If Indy wins, we're basically done.  A loss to Atl would officially eliminate us while a win would keep our slim chance still alive.  But if Indy wins this weekend and gets a bunch of confidence, I dont see them losing out while seeing us win out.

 

If Houston wins though, our game against the Falcons doesnt mean as much surprisingly.  No matter what we would need Houston to lose to Tenn and then lose to us... that wouldnt change whether we win or lose against Atl.  However a win against Atlanta would mean all we'd need is an Indy loss to either Miami or Tenn.  Doesnt matter which one.  Just need one more loss.  But if we were to lose to Atl, Indy would have to lose to Tenn in week 17.  Their game against Miami would be irrelevant.  

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