Quote:Trump will be the nominee, so don't sweat that other stuff.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that.  The odds and the math are definitely not in his favor.  1237 delegates is the "magic number" in the republican primary.

 

Trump currently has 678 delegates so that means that he needs 559 more in order to reach that number.

 

Cruz currently has 413 delegates so that means that he needs 824 more in order to reach that number.

 

Kasich currently has 143 delegates so that means that he needs 1094 more in order to reach that number (mathematically impossible).

 

There are only 946 total delegates available between now and the convention.  Kasich is already mathematically eliminated.  Odds are that neither Cruz nor Trump can win a large majority of the remaining delegates.  Of the remaining 946 delegates available, 597 are from "winner take all" states with the biggest prize being California with 172 delegates.  An argument can be made that Cruz would win the state because of the high Hispanic population and Donald Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric.  An argument could also be made for Trump for the very same reason.  The same could be said about Arizona with 58 "winner take all" delegates.

 

In my opinion, we are headed for a brokered convention.  If that's the case, I highly doubt that Trump ends up as the nominee.  Those that scream "the party is going against the will of the people" won't understand that Trump would have failed to get a majority of support from the republican party.

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