Quote:I think the 1912 election would be a better analogue. Teddy Roosevelt, a wildly popular President, ran as a third party in opposition to his former Republican colleague William Howard Taft. He and Taft split the Republican vote deeply, allowing Woodrow Wilson to win easily. If Roosevelt had run as a Republican, or the Republicans had backed him instead of Taft, Wilson would not have won in 1912.

 

In fact, the 1912 election has a lot of parallels to 2016. The Democratic Party faced a split of its own (albeit much more minor) when Eugene Debs ran under the Socialist Party's banner. I suspect the end result will be the same, too. The GOP convention will find a way to make someone, anyone, not named Trump the nominee, Trump will go to a third party and shred what's left of the Republicans, and the Democrat will take it as a result. I don't see Sanders running as a third party candidate, partially because he's already said he won't, and partially because I don't think he could live with himself if the 15% of the vote he took was enough to put Trump in the White House.

 

I agree that the GOP convention will not nominate Trump.  Regarding him going third party, I personally doubt it, but then again, Trump isn't the smartest candidate in the race.

 

First of all, I don't think that you will see that many in the republican party go with him, especially people that have voted in more than a couple of elections.

 

Second of all, if he waits for the convention he has another problem.  At that point it may be too late for him to make it onto the ballot for the general election in some states.

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