It's pretty evident that this is going to a brokered convention.  My own theory behind this...

 

1237 votes are needed to win the nomination outright.

 

Donald Trump has 739 delegates at this point.  That means that he needs to earn 498 more.

 

Ted Cruz has 465 delegates at this point.  That means that he needs to earn 772 more.

 

There are only 536 delegates left in the remaining states yet to hold their primaries.

 

Of course, there is no way that Ted Cruz wins all of the remaining delegates, and even if he does, it's still not enough.  There is also no way that Donald Trump wins 498 out of 536.  Mathematically, the other two candidates still in the race just need to win 38 delegates combined in order to eliminate the possibility of an outright winner.

 

Other significant delegates in the first vote of the convention.  Note, these numbers can change with the early voting numbers and the fact that Kasich is still actively campaigning.

 

Marco Rubio holds 166 delegates.

 

John Kasich holds 143 delegates.

 

So it comes down to the question of who the republican party eventually nominates.

 

Other factors to consider is that the republican party has pretty much made it clear that they don't want Trump.  They also sour on Ted Cruz, especially since he refuses to bend to party pressure.  I also don't think that they would bring in someone from outside of the primary election (Mitt Romney, etc.).  My guess is that it will end up being a Kasich/Rubio ticket or Rubio/Kasich ticket in the end.

 

Thoughts?

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