Quote:LOL, Hey Anchorman, you keep using the word majority...  I don't think it means what you think it means...

 

Good point.  I do not mean, "majority" in the sense of 50% plus one.  The proper term I should have used was a "plurality".  If a candidate walks in with the most votes, but not the majority, and they give it to another guy that is behind that person in delegates, then what the heck are you doing as a party?

 

You're basically saying, we don't care what the voters are saying, we're gonna go with what the establishment elites believe is best for you little dumb voters.  

 

A contested convention is one where no candidate has a majority of the delegates on the first ballot.  Since this is what might happen this time, I looked up the history of contested conventions. 

 

http://leavittpartners.com/2016/03/a-his...nventions/

 

"When a contested convention does occur, the candidate with the highest number of delegates after the first ballot has only won a minority of times.  For the Democrats, the leading candidate after the first ballot secured the nomination 7 out of 16 times.  For the Republicans, the leading candidate only secured the nomination 3 out of 10 times. "

 

"When a candidate is ultimately selected in a contested convention, it doesn’t appear to be fatal for the party’s nominee.  For the Democrats in 6 out of 16 contested conventions the eventual nominee has won the presidency.  For the Republicans the odds have been even better – their candidate has won the general election 5 out of 10 times.  Interestingly, in only 3 out of 26 contested conventions has the leading candidate for either party after the first ballot eventually secured the presidency – Buchanan in 1856, Cleveland in 1884, and FDR in 1932.  In the other 7 occasions where the contested nominee has won the general election, he was not the leading candidate in the first round of balloting. "

 

 

So what conclusion can we draw from this?  

 

1) If Trump has the most delegates, but not a majority, and he winds up not getting the nomination, it won't necessarily damage the party's prospects in the general election.  At least, not if history is any guide. 

 

2) This has happened a lot of times, but not in the last 60 years. 

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