Most of the mock drafts seem to indicate that one of either Jack, Bosa or Ramsey will somehow be available to us at 5.  This is predicated upon Tennessee staying at the # 1 overall spot and taking T Laremy Tunsil out of Ole Miss.  In his MMQB article, Peter King indicates there is a 50-50 shot at this point that the tacks trade out of the #1 overall spot.  If the tacks DO trade out of the #1 spot, it could have good, potentially great benefits to the Jaguars if the goal is one of those three players listed above.  However, if the trade down results in the wrong player being taken at 1, it could trigger the worst case scenario that many have speculated about on this board, leaving the Jaguars without Jack, Bosa or Ramsey.

 

If the tacks were to deal down with either Cleveland or Dallas in the top 5, it likely won't make too much of a difference.  Cleveland is presumed to want a QB, and the Browns and tacks switching spots would presumably lead to offensive players being taken in the top two picks (assuming Tunsil to the tacks is an accurate pairing speculation). 

 

Dallas likely would not trade up unless they wanted to assure themselves of the successor to Tony Romo, who is in his mid 30s and coming off of an injury plagued season.  If a tack-Dallas trade goes down, the best case scenario is that Dallas (QB), Cleveland (QB), and Tennessee (Tunsil)all go offense in the first four picks, which would leave the Jaguars with a choice of at least two out of the three defenders between Bosa, Jack and Ramsey. 

 

1.  Dallas-Wentz

2.  Cleveland-Goff

3.  San Diego-Tunsil, Bosa or Ramsey

4.  Tennessee-Tunsi, Bosa, or Ramsey

5. Jacksonville-Bosa, Ramsey, or Jack

 

 

However, any trade down lower than 2 could create a domino effect resulting in the Jaguars missing out on the top 3 defenders and hoping for a trade down.

 

Assuming any team lower than Cleveland trades up into that #1 overall spot for a QB, the worst case scenario might be triggered if Cleveland only likes one of the QBs at that #2 spot.  If Wentz is their guy and he's off the board when they are on the clock, maybe, maybe they stick with Goff at #2.  Maybe they try to trade down to another QB hungry team that likes Goff.  Naturally, in these first two cases, that benefits the Jaguars because it guarantees one of the three defenders are there at 5.  But there is also the possibility they take the best defensive player on the board and try to get their QB later on.  In that case, maybe San Diego bails us out by taking Tunsil or Buckner if Cleveland takes Ramsey or Bosa.  But if SD shares the consensus view that Jack, Bosa and Ramsey are the top 3 defenders and choose to take one of them (More likely Ramsey or Bosa), then Dallas stands between us and the top tier stud defender, assuming they are not the team that trades into that top spot.

 

It could go like this:

 

1.  Team X-Wentz

2.  Cleveland-Bosa

3.  San Diego-Ramsey

4. Dallas-Goff,Jack, Buckner, Elliott

 

If Dallas takes Jack here at 4 (I don't see it happening),then the nightmare scenario is the inability to make a trade down away from happening. 

 

How could the Jaguars be stuck at 5 under this scenario?

 

Let's assume Goff is still on the board at 5 and a team below Dallas traded up for Wentz (for argument's sake, let's make it San Francisco.  The draft order would be from 5-15

 

5.  Jaguars

6.  Ravens

7. Tacks (from 49ers)

8.  Philadelphia

9. Tampa

10.  NY Giants

11. Chicago

12. New Orleans

13.  Miami

14. Oakland

15. Los Angeles

 

After a tack-49er trade, no team between us and Philadelphia needs a QB.  Furthermore, you can argue Tampa, the Giants, the Saints, Miami and Oakland are all set at QB.  That would leave Chicago and Los Angeles left to bid against the Eagles for Goff's services.  But Chicago is one of those teams that rarely seems to move up in the draft, and Fox has succeeded without a stud at QB, even if you don't think highly of Cutler. 

 

Since there is no team between us and Philly that needs a QB, the only real competition is between the Eagles and Rams. and since the Rams only need to get ahead of Philadelphia, they may not need to deal with us to get there.  Worse yet, the Rams (or any other team below Philly at 8 in this scenario) interested in a QB could stand pat and take Paxton Lynch, who has been the talk of first round consideration.  If Lynch takes the competition out of the QB spot in the top ten, then the worst case scenario is realized.

 

In sum, I think for Jacksonville to have the most good options available, the tacks cannot trade out of the top 4 picks, or Cleveland has to be keen on two QBs at #2.

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