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Tack Trade Down scenarios
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I can see Dallas or someone trading up to get Wentz in front of Cleveland, I just don't think it's 50/50 odds like King suggests. The tacks would be foolish to come off the pick for anything but a king's ransom and the GM of a QB needy team would have to have brass balls to pay the king's ransom to move up. And like I said above, this scenario is talked about every year and it just doesn't happen.
The smart pick for Tennessee is Tunsil to protect their investment in what they have to believe is their franchise guy at QB (who coincidentally got hurt last year). The only way they trade picks and still likely get their guy is if they swap with Cleveland who may fear the Dallas scenario happening and want to ensure they get their guy in Wentz and then Tennessee takes their guy in Tunsil at 2nd overall and likely picks up Cleveland's 2nd round pick. I'm not sure what the value chart says you do here but if its anything more than that for Cleveland to move up I don't think they do it and even giving up the 2nd might be too much considering you have to assume Tennessee isn't drafting another QB in back to back years and the price would have to be too steep for anyone else to move up. Dallas is a prime candidate to draft a QB because how often do you pick in the top 4 and already have a relatively talented roster like they do? And with their recent experience last year of having terrible backup QB play which led to them drafting where they are now, you have to believe they don't want to go into the season without someone on the bench that they'd feel comfortable having to play if necessary. And lastly, Jerrah won't be firing himself or his son any time soon if he botches up this potential trade scenario. A motivating factor for Dallas could be that Goff may not be top 5 material based on size alone. He's got the height but he's a little thin overall and has relatively small hands. Wentz has prototypical size and will likely go in the top 2 picks. Cleveland would be foolish to pass on him even with the RGIII signing. They'd have to feel pretty good about their QB situation (but not much else) if they rolled into the season with Wentz and RGIII. And you know a new coach in Hugh Jackson is going to want to get his QB pretty early in his tenure. I doubt he believes his guy is RGIII at this moment. I actually think a Cleveland/Tennessee swap of picks is more likely than anyone else moving up, but I still believe it's even more likely that the top 4 picks order remains unchanged. |
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