Quote:Lol ok, the implication was that winning games precluded the team from getting the first pick. If you're forcing me to be so literal then I will say that having the first pick is better than any other pick. If we can manage to win some late games and get the first pick then that is obviously the best of both worlds, but that usually doesn't happen. 

 

I thought the same thing, and did some research on 1st pick vs. 2nd to prove the point. I looked at all of the drafts since 1990. The 2012 and 2013 drafts were too recent to make a clear player evaluation, so I threw them out. 
I've highlighted franchise quality picks in green (16 total), solid contributors in red (12), disappointments in black (16).

 
1990 Jeff George ... Blair Thomas
1991 Russell Maryland
... Eric Turner

1992 Steve Emtman ... Quentin Coryatt
1993 Drew Bledsoe
... Rick Mirer
1994 Dan Wilkinson
... Marshall Faulk

1995 Ki-Jana Carter ... Tony Boselli

1996 Keyshawn Johnson
... Kevin Hardy

1997 Orlando Pace
... Darrell Russell

1998 Peyton Manning
... Ryan Leaf
1999 Tim Couch ... Donovan McNabb

2000 Courtney Brown ... LaVar Arrington

2001 Michael Vick
... Leonard Davis
2002 David Carr ... Julius Peppers

2003 Carson Palmer
... Charles Rogers
2004 Eli Manning
... Robery Gallery
2005 Alex Smith
... Ronnie Brown
2006 Mario Williams
... Reggie Bush

2007 JaMarcus Russell ... Calvin Johnson

2008 Jake Long
... Chris Long

2009 Matthew Stafford
... Jason Smith
2010 Sam Bradford
... Ndamukong Suh

2011 Cam Newton
... Von Miller

 
Using my ratings, the 1st pick was better in 9 cases, the 2nd pick better in 7 cases, with 6 ties. Six times the 1st pick turned out significantly better, vs. four times the 2nd pick.

 
As far as I can see, there was a slight but not statistically significant advantage in picking 1st rather than 2nd. That result surprised me, as I thought there would be a clear advantage. You may disagree with some of my ratings (I valued long-term starting QBs like McNabb and Palmer higher than others might because the position is so important), but I don't think it makes a difference to the conclusion.

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