Quote:OP said that Hurns and Robinson have a 20% chance of repeating. I was just explaining with simple statistics what the probability would be for one of them or both of them, because it would be different.

Okay, thanks for the explanation. So, the chance for either of them to repeat is 20%, and thus the chance for one or the other to repeat is 40%. Got it.


So here's the game we're going to play. I'm going to toss a coin twice. The chance that the first toss will be heads is 50%, right? So the chance that one of the tosses will be heads is 100%. It's guaranteed. Given that, you'd be fine with offering me, say, million to one odds against me tossing tails twice in a row, yes?


Like you said, basic statistics.

---