Quote:Okay, thanks for the explanation. So, the chance for either of them to repeat is 20%, and thus the chance for one or the other to repeat is 40%. Got it.


So here's the game we're going to play. I'm going to toss a coin twice. The chance that the first toss will be heads is 50%, right? So the chance that one of the tosses will be heads is 100%. It's guaranteed. Given that, you'd be fine with offering me, say, million to one odds against me tossing tails twice in a row, yes?


Like you said, basic statistics.

 

I was doing the math wrong which happens when you do math post call. Since 4% of the time, they would both do it at the same time. So the chances either of them having a 10+ TD season is 36%.

 

For your situation:

The chances for you to win would be for both tosses to be tails. Chances for 1 toss to be tails is 50% (or .5). That means the chances for tails to occur twice is  0.5 x 0.5 or 0.25. So the chances for heads to turn up once would be 1 - 0.25 = 0.75 or 75%. For a third toss, it then becomes 1 - (0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5) = 1 - (0.125) = 0.875 or 87.5 %. 

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