I think you are missing the point. the point is that these statistical probabilities don't take into account the above on purpose. It represents the percentage from a historical sense. What this is saying is that looking at last years statistical performance and given the schedule and the other teams in the division and there performance last year, 12% of the time a team like that wins the division. Its the baseline from a probabilistic stand point historically speaking. Its what you would start with if you considered all those factors equal. When you start to take all those other things into account and begin to differentiate from the baseline, those baseline numbers are what you have to overcome, so if the jags are 31% points behind the Texans in the historical baseline, those outside factors relatively speaking have to make up the gap. For example if you argue that actually because BB has a good chance of progressing, along with FA signings, draft etc, and when looking at the other teams changes, the jags in relation to the other three teams have increased there odds by actually 20%, then it has to be put into the context of where the starting point is. Long winded and probably many are lost. But summarizing, what the numbers say from a historical sense is that the Jags have take a large leap forward in relation to the other teams this year in ability or some improbable things have to happen, for the jags to win the South. All things being equal it's basically a pickem between the colts and Texans with the Texans as small favorites.

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