Quote:What do you mean what would happen? Either the experimental design is flawed or the original hypotheses need to be reformulated. An alternative is that you don't have the proper technology to conduct sufficient hypothesis testing. Discovering the Higgs-Boson would have been impossible in 1950.


But the tropospheric hot spot was found...

<a class="bbc_url" href='http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2310.html'>http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2310.html</a>


The question of how climate model projections have tracked the actual evolution of global mean surface air temperature is important in establishing the credibility of their projections. Some studies and the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report suggest that the recent 15-year period (1998–2012) provides evidence that models are overestimating current temperature evolution. Such comparisons are not evidence against model trends because they represent only one realization where the decadal natural variability component of the model climate is generally not in phase with observations. We present a more appropriate test of models where only those models with natural variability (represented by El Niño/Southern Oscillation) largely in phase with observations are selected from multi-model ensembles for comparison with observations. These tests show that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods and for Pacific spatial trend patterns.


Read the paper as there is mention of the tropospheric hotspot. If you cannot access the paper via an institutional login I can Dropbox the original article.