To expand on my point about a true top ten defense, the Jaguars defense allowed 400 points in 2016, the tenth best scoring defense (Pittsburgh) allowed 327 points. If the Jaguars were a borderline top ten defense, say allowing about 320 points, they'd have allowed 5 less points per game, in a season in which the Jaguars were 2-8 in one score games. If the defense allowed 5 less points per game how many more games does the team win?

 

If the defense had allowed 5 less points in every game the Jaguars would have been 8-7 with one overtime game against KC, which maybe they win, maybe they lose.

 

Teams that beat the Jaguars by less than 5 points:

 

Green Bay

Baltimore

texans twice

cotls in week 17.

 

So that's 5 games the Jaguars win if the defense allows 5 less points, and one they might win.

 

8-8 should be the lower end of expectations for the team if the defense actually turns into a real top ten unit. If the run game is dominant that 8-8 should be foregone. If Bortles becomes more consistently good the team should easily win the division and possibly be looking at a bye in the playoffs.

 

A lot of ifs, but like I said, but the big one is the defense being an actual top ten unit, not just a top ten "yardage" unit.

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