There is little point in rehashing the bad bad W-L record our Jaguars have endured over the past few years.  We've endured it first hand.  Nevertheless, it is understandable that fans, weary from all of the losing, have a visceral response to the product and throw any and everyone under the bus, from players to coaches to the GM to the owner.  However, what often gets lost in the moment of frustration is a broader perspective.

 

One of the things people, including myself, people have cited to explain the poor performance of the team thus far is the role of inexperience.  Yesterday, the Jaguars played SIX (6) rookies yesterday, starting 5-all on the offensive side of the ball.  Those rookies were:

 

QB Blake Bortles

WR Allen Robinson

WR Allen Hurns

C Luke Bowanko

RG Brandon Linder

 

and RB Storm Johnson had playing time.

 

If I had to read the tea leaves, I suspect Johnson will be a starting RB for the Jaguars soon.

 

Also keep in mind Marqise Lee has started two games thus far this season, and he likely would have started at least one of the last two barring his own injuries.

 

In an attempt to gain a broader perspective and better understanding on our losing, I examined the starting lineups of the worst teams in football dating back to 1980.  No team I examined had a record of better than 4 wins.

 

Of all of the teams with 4 wins or less dating back to 1980, only three (3) teams besides this year's Jaguars team has had 6 or more rookies in the starting lineup at any one time.  Number in parenthesis is the number of rookie starters, according to profootballreference.com   Those teams were the 1983 Oilers (8), the 1999 Cleveland Browns (6), and the 2001 Buffalo Bills (6). 

 

A few points of explanation are in order.  First, the 1983 draft was known as the best and deepest draft in NFL history.  It was 12 rounds in length and only 28 teams picked.  Guys like Richard Dent and Mark Clayton were found in the 8th and 9th rounds.  Secondly, the 1999 Cleveland Browns were an expansion team.  Finally, with all of those teams, the rookie starters were evenly distributed between the offense and defense.  With the Jaguars, all of the rookies that started yesterday were on offense.  Based upon history, that is a most unusual distribution of talent.

 

But surprisingly, very few of the teams had as many rookie starters as this years Jaguars.

 

I see several possibilities to explain this.

 

1.  Coaches are generally loathe to start rookies, even in rebuilding situations like the one we face here in Jacksonville.  I think this is due to one of two related factors below: 

 

2.  rookies typically are not refined enough in their games to readily supplant starters in their rookie years.

 

3.  Rookies make mistakes that make it more difficult for teams to win, even in rebuilding situations.

 

4.  The Jaguars roster was so talent depleted coming into this offseason, the team had no real choice but to start rookies, even in positions where more experienced players were preferable;

 

5.  Maybe despite the current record, the Jaguars rookie class was actually a very good one.

 

This ties into my second conclusion.  Just because the team is in the midst of a horrible stretch of losing, that fact in itself does not necessarily mean the team is headed in the wrong direction.  There are several teams within the parameters of this study that leap to mind.

 

The 1985 Buffalo Bills finished with a record of 2-14, which followed a 2-14 record the year before.  However, despite finishing that season with a 2-14 record, they wound up drafting a couple of Hall of Famers in that class who would eventually take them to four straight Super Bowls:  DE Bruce Smith and WR Andre Reed.

 

The Carolina Panthers hav had several disastrous seasons in their history.  2001 was one of those seasons, and they finished 1-15 that year.  However, their rookie class that year produced three quality starters that played in their one Super Bowl year a couple of seasons later:  DT Kris Jenkins, LB Dan Morgan, and S Deon Grant.

 

Of course, Dallas' ascent to champion is a well chronicled journey.  Landry's last year in Dallas (1988) was 3-13, while Jimmy Johnson's first year in Dallas (1989) was 1-15.  Even though their records were horrible those two seasons (4-28 overall), they had several key contributors to Super Bowl teams already on that roster, which included HOF WR Michael Irvin, Pro Bowl LB Ken Norton Jr., 5 time Pro Bowl G Nate Newton, OL Kevin Gogan, and 1989 rookie draft picks HOF QB Troy Aikman, and pro bowlers FB Daryl Johnston and C Mark Stepnoski.

 

Of course, history is also replete with teams that never ascended from the dregs to above mediocre within a reasonable period of time.  But the point is it is probable better days lay ahead for us despite the poor record over the past few years, and it is quite possible we'll see the results sooner (within the next year) rather than later.

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