The Jaguars season thus far has been part refreshing, part frustrating, and mostly entertaining. We have already surpassed last season's win total, and we still have nine games to go. However, the way the season has unfolded has led to some questions to ponder.
Allow me to preface by stating that despite the subject matter of some of these questions, by no means am I stating these Jaguars are as good as the '84 and '85 Bears defense. For that matter, I don't think this defense is as good as the Seahawks Super Bowl defenses. Not yet. This team has to win a Super Bowl to be considered among the all time greats. That said...
1. Can this team break the record for number of ten sack games in a season? With yesterday's ten sack performance against the Colts, the Jaguars became only the 3rd team in NFL history to record two 10 sack games in a season behind the 1967 Raiders and the 1984 Bears. It's especially amazing considering the defense has accomplished this before the halfway point of the season. So with nine games to go, can this defense become the first in league history to have three (3) ten sack games within a season? I think to answer this question, an examination of the factors that contributed to the ten sack games is needed.
- The Jaguars faced a relatively inexperienced QB in both instances. Against Houston, they faced 2nd year guy Tom Savage in the first half, and rookie QB Deshaun Watson in the second half. Yesterday, the Colts offered Jacoby Brissett, a 2nd year guy getting his 7th career start. If you look at our remaining schedule, we'll face relatively inexperienced guys in whomever Cleveland offers (Kizer, Kessler, or Hogan), San Francisco (Beathard), and likely Arizona (Stanton). Younger, less experienced guys tend to run around and hold onto the ball longer for a few reasons. They still believe in their ability to make plays with their legs. They haven't learned when to give up on a play. Because they haven't had much experience, they still aren't sure or confident in what they are seeing from the defense. All of these factors lead to younger QBs holding onto the ball longer, which leads to more sacks.
- The Jaguars faced a less than full strength or quality offensive line. In week one, the Texans were without LT Duane Brown, who was holding out. Yesterday, the Colts were without C Ryan Kelly and G Jack Mewhort. Without those guys, the backups were outmanned by the fast and athletic Jaguars defensive line. Down the stretch, the Jaguars will face Cleveland, who lacked a quality RT already and just lost HOF LT Joe Thomas for the season. When Thomas went out, the tacks pressured the Browns QB relentlessly, Arizona, whose OL is not known as a great one, and San Francisco. Also on the docket are the Bengals, who are playing with two disappointing tackles, and Seattle, whose OL has been a disaster.
- The Jaguars were able to play with leads. When you play with inexperienced QBs and mediocre offensive lines, that sort of thing doesn't lend itself to playing with many leads. The Jaguars took leads of 19-0 against Houston, and scored on their first four drives against Indy. Once the Jaguars take the lead, attempts to come back by passing the ball plays into the Jaguars hands, because the secondary provides excellent coverage, forcing QBs to hold onto the ball longer, allowing the pass rush to get home, while at the same time minimizing the Jaguars weakness in stopping the run.
- Good health-'nuff said.
Taken together, assuming good health, as rare as it is to record ten sacks in a game, I think it is possible (even if unlikely) for this team to reach the ten sack mark again
2.
Can this team break the single season sack record set by the 1984 Bears? Again, possible if unlikely. The Jaguars have notched 33 sacks in 7 games, or 4.7 sacks a game. The thing is, this was accomplished playing most of the games on the road. The Jaguars have five true home games remaining. While the Jaguars have not managed much of a home field advantage, that could change, especially if the Jaguars win these next two over the Bengals and Bolts. If the Jaguars can win these next two, that will put the team at 6-3 with road games against Cleveland and Arizona. Jacksonville could end up at 8-3 in that scenario, with a three game home stretch. I think by then, under that scenario, home field for that three game stretch, with the team in the thick of the playoff hunt, the team wins a lot of converts here, the enthusiasm spikes, and the defense has an added edge. Given the factors delineated in question one, plus the home field advantage envisioned here, I think 4.7 sacks a game is doable. Anywhere around 60 sacks would be an outstanding year for the pass rush. If it matches the 33 sacks notched thus far over the last 9 games, it surpasses the '85 Bears who notched 65 sacks. As I have repeatedly indicated, that would surpass my wildest expectations for this year's defense.
3.
Can the passing game continue the improvement it showed yesterday against the Colts? A difficult question to answer, and a difficult task for this team to accomplish. The next two games will be the toughest tests for this offense short of the Seattle game. Both Cincinnati and the Bolts boast good defenses who can get after the QB and good secondaries, which are stark contrasts to what the Jaguars faced yesterday. I think there are several factors to consider.
- A return to health of Linder, Robinson, Fournette and Westbrook.
- A willingness of Marrone and Hackett to continue to go against their tendencies and open things up a little.
- Continued improvement from Cole. Bottom line is he needs to stretch out defenses to help get 8 men out of the box
- Fournette continuing to run the ball well.
I believe there will be ups and downs, but I think the offense will be improved over the last 9 games overall.
4.
Can this team make the playoffs? The schedule seems to suggest it is a strong possibility. All of the remaining games on the schedule are winnable, but despite the perception the remaining schedule is easy, there are some challenges. I think Cincinnati, the Bolts, the Seahawks, tacks and Texans represent formidable tests for this team. I also have a ton of respect for Arians as a coach, and despite the slew of injuries the Cards have faced, I think he can have them ready to play tough at home. There is also the issue of other teams within the conference. The AFC E has three teams (Miami, Buffalo, and New England) sitting at only two losses. Even though we beat Pittsburgh, they too have a better record than we have. Tennesseee has the same record we have, but right now they hold the tiebreaker, while Houston still has our same record. The AFC West has four tough teams, though Denver is dropping while the Bolts and raiders appear to be trending up. We could have a vastly improved record this year, but depending upon which games we win/lose from here on out, we could find ourselves in a tiebreaker. Winning the division could be our only route to the postseason. But until this team can demonstrate the ability to be consistently good and string some wins together, winning any game left on the schedule, much less making the playoffs, is not a foregone conclusion.
5.
Can we win the division? Considering we are a half game out of first place due to the earlier loss to the tacks, yeah we still have a shot at winning the South. It may come down to our remaining schedules. I already touched on our remaining schedule. The tacks have tough games left against Cincinnati week 10, @ Pittsburgh in week 11, Houston on December 3, the Rams in week 16, and us in week 17. The Texans go to Seattle this coming Sunday, go to the Rams in week 10, at the tacks Dec 3, , come to Jacksonville in week 15, and host Pittsburgh on Christmas.I think the Texans' have the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams at the top of the division, with most of them being on the road. I think the Jaguars should be big Rams fans for the remainder of the season. Irrespective of who the tacks and Texans have remaining, we have to take care of business, or talk of winning the division becomes moot.
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
