Posting early since the Colts have a Thursday Night Game this week.
Last week, our beloved Jaguars bounced back from a disappointing loss to the loathsome and detestable tacks, grounding the Jets 31-12. The tacks maintained their first place status by beating the Eagles in overtime in the latest in a series of gritty performances. Pulling up the rear, Colin Cowherd's divisional favorites (the Colts and Texans) battled into overtime, where the Texans notched their first win of the season, beating the Colts and leaving each two games behind the tacks and defending AFC South Champion Jaguars.
Prediction wise, it was more of the same mediocrity for me, with my third straight 1-2 week. Never let it be said that I am inconsistent!
Anyway, here are my picks for this week. I have to get better sometimes....right?
Colts (1-3) at
Patriots (2-2)-While this match up does not have the same level of significance the Colts-Pats games of the Manning and early Luck era had, this is nevertheless an interesting match up. Buoyed by the infusion of draft picks from the off season trade down with the Jets and the return to some version a health by Luck, the Colts seem like they could be a team on the rise if they can continue to build on what they did this past off season. Meanwhile, there have been some observers who theorize the Patriots are on the way down. As long as Brady and Belichick are active and healthy New England Patriots, I will not write them off. You see what they just did to the Fish, don't you? WR Julian Edelman returns from his four game suspension for PEDs, but there is no telling what kind of shape he is in. Meanwhile, newly acquired WR Josh Gordon apparently still has hamstring issues, and perhaps most importantly, Gronk is iffy due to an ankle. Defensively, the Colts embody the middle of the pack, although rookie second round pick Darius Leonard looks like a budding star, leading the league in tackles and notching 4 sacks thus far. It will be interesting to see how much the Patriots will rely upon rookie RB Sony Michel, who had some good moments against us in week 2, and notched his first 100 yard game in the rout over the Dolphins. The Patriots have been particularly vulnerable defensively. Despite adding NT Danny Shelton, they rank near the bottom in rush defense. Unfortunately for the Colts, the addition of rookie OL's Quentin nelson and Braden Smith has not translated into success running the ball. As it has so many other times, it comes down to the QBs, where I still give Brady the edge on a short week, at home, with more support on the ground.
Pats win 27-20.
tacks (3-1) at
Bills (1-3)-Thanks to my buddy the Bills fan, I have grown to despise the Bills over the year, and I usually take great glee in their habitual demise. However, my pro Jaguars allegiance causes me to have to root for the Bills from time to time. This is one of those times. However, I have zero realistic hope of the Bills actually serving a useful purpose this week. Yes they beat the Vikes a couple of weeks back. However, that was a Vikes team in a collective shock over DE Everson Griffen having some sort of mental breakdown involving threats of violence against staff in a Minneapolis hotel the night before that game. Griffen has not played since, and it is unclear when he will play again, but I digress. In the other three weeks, the Bills have looked like they would set standards for neolithic incompetence, being routed 47-3 in week one, shut out by Green Bay just last week, and dominated by the bolts in between. Right now, it seems the tacks are playing too gritty and too well defensively for a team with a rookie QB, no offensive line, and no speed at WR to handle.
tacks win 24-7.
Jaguars (3-1) at
Chiefs (4-0)-the good guys travel to the mid west to take on the undefeated Chiefs in Arrowhead in a battle pitting the proverbial irresistible force (the Chiefs' offense) against the immovable object (the Jags' defense). Though it is still early in his career, it seems Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes is on his way to becoming the league's next QB star. He has thrown for 14 TDs and 0 INTs over the first four games this year! No matter how you slice it, that is an amazing start. This past Monday Night, he was slowed off of his pace some on the road by a Denver defense that features a good pass rusher (Von Miller) and two good CBs. The Jaguars offer the same things the Denver defense offers and more, with six Pro bowlers on defense. They have 4-5 defensive linemen that can rush the passer (Ngakoue, Campbell, Jackson, Dareus and Fowler). They have LBs who are fast, athletic and well rounded in OLB Telvin Smith and MLB Myles Jack. They have possibly the best CB tandem in football with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, with very good safeties in Barry Church, Tashaun Gipson, and rookie Ronnie Harrison. The Chiefs have lots of offensive weapons in TE Travis Kelce, explosive WR Tyreek Hill, and stud RB in Hunt. But they may be missing WR Sammy Watkins, who may be out with a hamstring injury. If he is out, that will make things easier for the defense, who has the personnel to cover those receivers. On the other sides of the ball, the Jaguars' offense is missing Leonard Fournette, who is dealing with a hamstring injury of his own, while the Chiefs may be without pass rushing OLB Dee Ford, but would still be left with bookend pass rusher Houston. That aside, the Chiefs rank last in defensive yards allowed, 25th in scoring defense, despite the leads they have jumped out to, they are 28th in rush defense, and next to last in pass defense. I believe there will be two keys to this game. A fast start and turnovers. If the Jaguars get off to a fast start, keep the Chiefs from turning the game into video game football, and give themselves the opportunity to run the football and not turn the ball over, they can win this game. Conversely, if the Chiefs get off to an early lead, it could enable Justin Houston to take over the game as a pass rusher. The Jaguars have had success playing in hostile environments, and defense tends to travel well. Perhaps this is another homer pick, but to heck with it.
Jaguars 24, Chiefs 20.
Cowboys (2-2) at
Texans (1-3)-Even though it seems like J.J. Watt has returned to form, the Texans can't stop the pass well. Fortunately for them, they play Dallas, who can't seem to pass the ball well/\. What Dallas does do well is get after the QB, as they are second in the league in Sacks. What Houston does NOT do well is protect the passer, as Watson has been sacked 17 times, the second most in the league. I think Dallas controls the game on the ground and wins.
Dallas 21-20.
Last week: 1-2
Overall: 5-8
Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!
