(06-20-2019, 11:17 AM)mikesez Wrote:

(06-09-2019, 06:34 AM)jagibelieve Wrote: You have no idea how wrong you are.  Did you happen to see the jobs report for May?  Have you looked at the yield on a 10 year treasury note?  Do you not realize that we are in a trade war right now?

I don't think any of those three things are exactly what they should be looking at.

They are supposed to look at unemployment (keep it as low as possible) and inflation (target 2%).

Granted, the jobs report is one component of the derivative of the unemployment rate with respect to time, but what are the other components indicating? Even if you saw the entire derivative, a good control system reacts to more than just a derivative.

Inflation is a bit lower than they would want it, but it may be time to consider if the 2% target is appropriate given the broader realities this generation sees, with greater energy efficiency, more automation, and reduced business travel (more webinars, for instance) confounding previous assumptions about what a healthy economy looks like.

Those three things are part of what should be looked at right now.  The weak jobs report for May is a signal that the economy could possibly be slowing down.  The 10 year treasury yield is the benchmark for corporate bond and mortgage rates which are at a low right now.  A lot will ride on negotiations with China and how tariffs might or might not be implemented.  After the Fed meeting this week they voted to hold rates steady for now, but all signs point to at least 1 rate cut before the end of the year with some thinking possibly 2 cuts.

I for one would like to see the rate unchanged for the time being.

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