(01-24-2022, 11:18 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(01-24-2022, 09:56 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: The overtime rules are right where they need to be.  The old rules allowed a team to win the coin toss and only have to move in to field goal range to likely win the game.  Too easy.  The rule as it stands is the perfect amount of equal opportunity and limits to how much time the league wants to spend in overtime while citing player safety as a major concern.  Defense is part of the game.  If you want the ball back, hold them to a field goal or get a stop.  The advantage of losing the coin flip (and there is one) is that if you are able to get a stop, you only need to now get in field goal range to win or if you hold your opponent to a field goal you can now end the game with a TD.

Also, there were a couple of things they could have done differently with 13 seconds left on the clock that would have won them the game.  They assumed the game was over (as most did) and it wasn't and it bit them in the [BLEEP].  Lets not flip the table over now because they lost.  They can blame themselves for that.

Advantage is the wrong word.  What you described is an upside to the scenario, but it's not good enough to cancel the downside.  No sane coach would defer under the current overtime rules.  There's no advantage. The math says the team that wins the OT coin toss in the NFL wins the game 53% of the time, and lose 47% of the time.  That's a 6% spread.  A coach increases his chance of winning 6% if he gets the ball first in OT.  No coach turns that down no matter how much he likes his defense.  
For comparison, winning the coin toss in college OT only increases your chance of winning by about 0.5%

BTW, I wouldn't say 53% win percentage in overtime for the team winning the coin toss is worth scrapping the rules over.  I'd think the league is pretty happy with that number.  I'm not sure what the number in college is for win percentage of taking the ball first or second in overtime, but I'd bet it isn't 50% if that's what you're shooting for. 

Also, your stat isn't as relevant as Louis Riddick's.  If the team that wins the toss doesn't close it out on the first possession with a TD (which they aren't doing almost 80% of the time) then the other team got their offense an opportunity in overtime.

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