(01-31-2022, 12:08 PM)Mikey Wrote:

(01-31-2022, 08:31 AM)mikesez Wrote: After last night, the team that wins the toss won 10 out of 12 games.  That's far from "just fine."

But now the "scores a TD on first possession" is down to 7/12, only 58.3%, which shows that as sample size grows, the percentage is regressing to the mean (54%).

Teams are always trying to win, and they don't care how they win.  Getting a TD on the first possession counts the same as an FG on the 2nd.
If we are going to deliberately introduce a random event, a coin toss, into the end of a game, we should look at the win/loss record of a team that wins the coin toss, regardless of how they eventually win the game.

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