(02-01-2022, 11:43 AM)Mikey Wrote:

(01-31-2022, 05:36 PM)mikesez Wrote: Teams are always trying to win, and they don't care how they win.  Getting a TD on the first possession counts the same as an FG on the 2nd.
If we are going to deliberately introduce a random event, a coin toss, into the end of a game, we should look at the win/loss record of a team that wins the coin toss, regardless of how they eventually win the game.

but your argument was that the coin flip is a near-automatic failure for the loser. what significance is the coin flip if both teams have their chance to score? At that point, the coin flip was a moot point. Once both teams possess the ball, the supposed advantage of winning the toss goes away.

Given that we're only working with 12 games in over a decade makes the reliability of any percentage extremely suspect.

The bolded above is wrong.  Common belief, but wrong. 
Even if you include the statistics from the regular season, when teams might play for a tie, coin flips starting overtime are never moot.  The advantage goes down, but it's still there.  It doesn't go all the way down to 50-50 like it should.
The team that goes second might have the same number of possessions, or one less, but never one more.  That's why there a durable statistical advantage for the team going first in OT that never goes away no matter how you cherry pick the data.  Even if you apply a "play til the end of the overtime period" rule, the advantage remains.

So, if you want to stop play when the clock goes to zero, and then restart it, there are only three fair choices:
1) do college overtime rules, guaranteeing an equal number of possessions for each team regardless
2) set up a new "penalty kicks" type situation to determine the winner, again each team gets the same number of chances at whatever the thing is,
3) do a quick "penalty kick" or "skills competition" between the two teams just to replace the coin flip, then play 11 on 11 with sudden death.

(1) takes the longest with the most contact
(2) has no contact at all, could be quick, but doesn't feel like football
(3) has the same amount of contact as today's rules, still ends with 11 on 11 scoring plays, takes about the same amount of time, and eliminates the unfairness.

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