Allen completed 49% of his passes in Junior College.

Its pretty worrying that a guy has never been an upper tier player at any point in his football career. I mean even some of the worst QBs we've seen in the NFL have dominated in high school or in lesser conferences. Allen didn't at all.

It's a very relevant point you're making. 

I think there are clearly scouts/GMs/coaches coming away from his work-outs and interviews feeling like he's coachable/fixable and probably hasn't received proper coaching to this point. 

Otherwise, he's basically another Jamarcus Russell.  I'm more optimistic on him than most folks around here, but I'm really curious to see who spends a pick on him and when. Rather polarizing prospect.

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Allen completed 49% of his passes in Junior College.

Its pretty worrying that a guy has never been an upper tier player at any point in his football career. I mean even some of the worst QBs we've seen in the NFL have dominated in high school or in lesser conferences. Allen didn't at all.

I just don't understand why Kiper is all over this guy's jock. He keeps saying he's the best QB in the draft, but he is way behind the other QB's in almost every category, other than arm strength. Remember, JaMarcus Russell had one of the strongest arms of any QB, but he failed miserably. I see the same for Allen.

To be fair Kiper was all over Jamarcus Russell too. At least he's consistent....

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"Before you criticize a man, walk a mile in his shoes. That way, if he gets angry, he's a mile away and barefoot."

Allen completed 49% of his passes in Junior College.

Its pretty worrying that a guy has never been an upper tier player at any point in his football career. I mean even some of the worst QBs we've seen in the NFL have dominated in high school or in lesser conferences. Allen didn't at all.

It's a very relevant point you're making. 

I think there are clearly scouts/GMs/coaches coming away from his work-outs and interviews feeling like he's coachable/fixable and probably hasn't received proper coaching to this point. 

Otherwise, he's basically another Jamarcus Russell.  I'm more optimistic on him than most folks around here, but I'm really curious to see who spends a pick on him and when. Rather polarizing prospect.

Whatever happens, it will be very interesting to follow his career.  

It's clear his raw arm talent and size are special. As the process has gone on I've been kind of set on saying that if he was in the 3rd he'd fine as a flier.  

From the NFLs side, if you are taking him in the 3rd then why not the 2nd? Which is fair, and to expand again, if you NEED a QB and he's your guy, you don't wait until the 2nd, you take him in the first.  

I don't necessarily agree with it, but thays the thought process.

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Aikens is turning 26 years old this month.

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Can anyone capture McShays top 100 picks for the Jaguars?

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Your beliefs become your thoughts,
Your thoughts become your words,
Your words become your actions,
Your actions become your habits,
Your habits become your values,
Your values become your destiny.

It's a very relevant point you're making. 

I think there are clearly scouts/GMs/coaches coming away from his work-outs and interviews feeling like he's coachable/fixable and probably hasn't received proper coaching to this point. 

Otherwise, he's basically another Jamarcus Russell.  I'm more optimistic on him than most folks around here, but I'm really curious to see who spends a pick on him and when. Rather polarizing prospect.

Whatever happens, it will be very interesting to follow his career.  

It's clear his raw arm talent and size are special. As the process has gone on I've been kind of set on saying that if he was in the 3rd he'd fine as a flier.  

From the NFLs side, if you are taking him in the 3rd then why not the 2nd? Which is fair, and to expand again, if you NEED a QB and he's your guy, you don't wait until the 2nd, you take him in the first.  

I don't necessarily agree with it, but thays the thought process.

Ah... I remember this argument from the old Geno Smith/Teddy Bridgewater debates. Not saying you made them, but similar arguments were made re: if he's your guy, take him.

Completely disagree.

You draft QB (or any player) where you grade him. If value doesn't match, you trade back or select where it does match.

If you re-draft Brady, you DO NOT take him first overall.

You take him exactly where he was taken. There's no reason to pay more in value.

You take players as LOW as safely possible, not as high/soon as possible. That's the idea for drafting every player. You don't overdraft to get "your guy," whether he's a QB or not.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Whatever happens, it will be very interesting to follow his career.  

It's clear his raw arm talent and size are special. As the process has gone on I've been kind of set on saying that if he was in the 3rd he'd fine as a flier.  

From the NFLs side, if you are taking him in the 3rd then why not the 2nd? Which is fair, and to expand again, if you NEED a QB and he's your guy, you don't wait until the 2nd, you take him in the first.  

I don't necessarily agree with it, but thays the thought process.

Ah... I remember this argument from the old Geno Smith/Teddy Bridgewater debates.  Not saying you made them, but similar arguments were made re: if he's your guy, take him.

Completely disagree.

You draft QB (or any player) where you grade him.  If value doesn't match, you trade back or select where it does match.

If you re-draft Brady, you DO NOT take him first overall.

You take him exactly where he was taken.  There's no reason to pay more in value.

You take players as LOW as safely possible, not as high/soon as possible.  That's the idea for drafting every player.  You don't overdraft to get "your guy," whether he's a QB or not.

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but thats the thought process".  

Let's say you need a QB and have a guy in the draft you think is a franchise guy. You think he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd round but you are picking in the first. The thought process is you are better off taking that guy in the first than waiting and missing out on them.  

If you knew what Brady would be then you don't wait until the 6th to re-draft him of course. Particularly if every other teams knows what he is too.

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Ah... I remember this argument from the old Geno Smith/Teddy Bridgewater debates.  Not saying you made them, but similar arguments were made re: if he's your guy, take him.

Completely disagree.

You draft QB (or any player) where you grade him.  If value doesn't match, you trade back or select where it does match.

If you re-draft Brady, you DO NOT take him first overall.

You take him exactly where he was taken.  There's no reason to pay more in value.

You take players as LOW as safely possible, not as high/soon as possible.  That's the idea for drafting every player.  You don't overdraft to get "your guy," whether he's a QB or not.

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but thats the thought process".  

Let's say you need a QB and have a guy in the draft you think is a franchise guy. You think he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd round but you are picking in the first. The thought process is you are better off taking that guy in the first than waiting and missing out on them.  

If you knew what Brady would be then you don't wait until the 6th to re-draft him of course. Particularly if every other teams knows what he is too.

As to the point in bold, let me play Devil's Advocate.

Go back to the 2001 draft.  You are the Chargers' GM.

Do you take LaDanian Tomlinson in the first round and wait until the second to take Drew Brees, or do you take Brees in the first round and another RB in the 2nd?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but thats the thought process".  

Let's say you need a QB and have a guy in the draft you think is a franchise guy. You think he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd round but you are picking in the first. The thought process is you are better off taking that guy in the first than waiting and missing out on them.  

If you knew what Brady would be then you don't wait until the 6th to re-draft him of course. Particularly if every other teams knows what he is too.

As to the point in bold, let me play Devil's Advocate.

Go back to the 2001 draft.  You are the Chargers' GM.

Do you take LaDanian Tomlinson in the first round and wait until the second to take Drew Brees, or do you take Brees in the first round and another RB in the 2nd?

Do we know how good they become? And do other teams know how good they become?

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Ah... I remember this argument from the old Geno Smith/Teddy Bridgewater debates.  Not saying you made them, but similar arguments were made re: if he's your guy, take him.

Completely disagree.

You draft QB (or any player) where you grade him.  If value doesn't match, you trade back or select where it does match.

If you re-draft Brady, you DO NOT take him first overall.

You take him exactly where he was taken.  There's no reason to pay more in value.

You take players as LOW as safely possible, not as high/soon as possible.  That's the idea for drafting every player.  You don't overdraft to get "your guy," whether he's a QB or not.

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but thats the thought process".  

Let's say you need a QB and have a guy in the draft you think is a franchise guy. You think he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd round but you are picking in the first. The thought process is you are better off taking that guy in the first than waiting and missing out on them.  

If you knew what Brady would be then you don't wait until the 6th to re-draft him of course. Particularly if every other teams knows what he is too.

You still take him in the second.  If you have to move up ahead of you think who will take him in the second, you still take him there instead of the first.

There's always another player to take.  However, you can never recoup value after you've given it away.

Look at what happened with Arob.

In your scenario, we would have taken Robinson and left Lee on the table - instead of taking Lee where he was, then trading back up to also get Robinson.

Value is the driver.  Not emotion/desire for a player and/or position.  You can't afford to "fall in love" with a guy, then reach just because you're forcing a fit where the numbers don't match.  Numbers, not crushes on players.  We're human, so easier said than done for fans for sure.  But that's not how rational execs would do things.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

As to the point in bold, let me play Devil's Advocate.

Go back to the 2001 draft.  You are the Chargers' GM.

Do you take LaDanian Tomlinson in the first round and wait until the second to take Drew Brees, or do you take Brees in the first round and another RB in the 2nd?

Do we know how good they become? And do other teams know how good they become?

No more than normal.  For the purposes of this discussion let them keep the same pre-draft grades:  Tomlinson was a consensus top 5 pick, and Brees was a round 1-2 talent.

Heck, let's assume you know how good both are going to be.

Do you take Brees first?

If you take Brees first, how do you argue taking one future Hall of Famer (Brees) is somehow better than taking two (Tomlinson and Brees) in the same draft?

If you stick to your draft grades like Pirkster argues, you end up with both.  If you eschew draft grades and take the QB, you miss out on Tomlinson.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

"I don't necessarily agree with it, but thats the thought process".  

Let's say you need a QB and have a guy in the draft you think is a franchise guy. You think he will be selected somewhere in the 2nd round but you are picking in the first. The thought process is you are better off taking that guy in the first than waiting and missing out on them.  

If you knew what Brady would be then you don't wait until the 6th to re-draft him of course. Particularly if every other teams knows what he is too.

You still take him in the second.  If you have to move up ahead of you think who will take him in the second, you still take him there instead of the first.

There's always another player to take.  However, you can never recoup value after you've given it away.

Look at what happened with Arob.

In your scenario, we would have taken Robinson and left Lee on the table - instead of taking Lee where he was, then trading back up to also get Robinson.

Value is the driver.  Not emotion/desire for a player and/or position.  You can't afford to "fall in love" with a guy, then reach just because you're forcing a fit where the numbers don't match.  Numbers, not crushes on players.  We're human, so easier said than done for fans for sure.  But that's not how rational execs would do things.

No that thought process and scenario we are talking about is strictly limited to QBs. 

Let's say we let Bortles go this year and needed a QB bad. We pick at #29, but have a guy pegged as a franchise guy that is more likely to be taken in the 2nd than the first. You take that guy at #29 rather than risk losing him.  

The value of a franchise QB is so large that you have to get your guy above all else. The usual rules don't apply.

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Do we know how good they become? And do other teams know how good they become?

No more than normal.  For the purposes of this discussion let them keep the same pre-draft grades:  Tomlinson was a consensus top 5 pick, and Brees was a round 1-2 talent.

Heck, let's assume you know how good both are going to be.

Do you take Brees first?

If you take Brees first, how do you argue taking one future Hall of Famer (Brees) is somehow better than taking two (Tomlinson and Brees) in the same draft?

If you stick to your draft grades like Pirkster argues, you end up with both.  If you eschew draft grades and take the QB, you miss out on Tomlinson.

You're playing devil's advocate to a devil's advocate here. 

The issue with scenarios like this is you are the only team that knows how good both can be and nobody else does. So of course you do whatever lands you both prospects? 

The problem is you don't actually know what anyone else will do or think of the prospects. Its not as simple as just waiting for your HOF QB in the 2nd and taking your HOF RB in the 1st without anyone else wanting them..

I'll put the same practical scenario to you :

Let's say we let Bortles go this year and needed a QB bad. We pick at #29, but have a guy pegged as a franchise guy that is more likely to be taken in the 2nd than the first. You take that guy at #29 rather than risk losing him, correct?

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You still take him in the second.  If you have to move up ahead of you think who will take him in the second, you still take him there instead of the first.

There's always another player to take.  However, you can never recoup value after you've given it away.

Look at what happened with Arob.

In your scenario, we would have taken Robinson and left Lee on the table - instead of taking Lee where he was, then trading back up to also get Robinson.

Value is the driver.  Not emotion/desire for a player and/or position.  You can't afford to "fall in love" with a guy, then reach just because you're forcing a fit where the numbers don't match.  Numbers, not crushes on players.  We're human, so easier said than done for fans for sure.  But that's not how rational execs would do things.

No that thought process and scenario we are talking about is strictly limited to QBs. 

Let's say we let Bortles go this year and needed a QB bad. We pick at #29, but have a guy pegged as a franchise guy that is more likely to be taken in the 2nd than the first. You take that guy at #29 rather than risk losing him.  

The value of a franchise QB is so large that you have to get your guy above all else. The usual rules don't apply.

Well, it's your fantasy situation.  You're entitled to all the mental gymnastics you please, I suppose.

Some get value, some don't.

If your situation existed, the reality would likely be the value meets the pick and it's not a reach in the eyes of the club.  They still aren't taking a a second rounder with the first pick unless they have him at the top of their board.

Realistic situation - this year.  Say they have a high third round grade (Let's say pick three of round three) on a QB.  Doesn't matter who he is, that's their grade.  Taking him with our second rounder isn't reaching.  It's where the value is.

Same situation, but they have him graded mid to late third round.  You either wait for him and take him third round - or you jump ahead of who you think is going to take him (because remember, they do their homework on that and know where they would need to be to take that target) you pick your board pick with your second rounder.  Then, you move up and select that QB in the third where you've targeted to take him ahead of the competition.

This isn't hard.  No sane exec (who is successful and will keep his job) will skip a round grade for a player that's been properly slotted/graded.  Gene Smith might (Alualu) but not someone who knows what they're doing.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

No that thought process and scenario we are talking about is strictly limited to QBs. 

Let's say we let Bortles go this year and needed a QB bad. We pick at #29, but have a guy pegged as a franchise guy that is more likely to be taken in the 2nd than the first. You take that guy at #29 rather than risk losing him.  

The value of a franchise QB is so large that you have to get your guy above all else. The usual rules don't apply.

Well, it's your fantasy situation.  You're entitled to all the mental gymnastics you please, I suppose.

Some get value, some don't.

If your situation existed, the reality would likely be the value meets the pick and it's not a reach in the eyes of the club.  They still aren't taking a a second rounder with the first pick unless they have him at the top of their board.

Realistic situation - this year.  Say they have a high third round grade (Let's say pick three of round three) on a QB.  Doesn't matter who he is, that's their grade.  Taking him with our second rounder isn't reaching.  It's where the value is.

Same situation, but they have him graded mid to late third round.  You either wait for him and take him third round - or you jump ahead of who you think is going to take him (because remember, they do their homework on that and know where they would need to be to take that target) you pick your board pick with your second rounder.  Then, you move up and select that QB in the third where you've targeted to take him ahead of the competition.

This isn't hard.  No sane exec (who is successful and will keep his job) will skip a round grade for a player that's been properly slotted/graded.  Gene Smith might (Alualu) but not someone who knows what they're doing.

You can't replicate the scenario for any other position. QB is unique.  

We aren't talking about 3rd round graded Qbs either. This is about guys you have graded as a franchise QB. ( Remember the Allen post above). 

I'm all for drafting based on value as you all know. 

If there is a franchise QB in the draft you do everything you can to take him. Including potentially drafting him a round earlier than the rest of the league might view him. It's a pretty simple concept.

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No more than normal.  For the purposes of this discussion let them keep the same pre-draft grades:  Tomlinson was a consensus top 5 pick, and Brees was a round 1-2 talent.

Heck, let's assume you know how good both are going to be.

Do you take Brees first?

If you take Brees first, how do you argue taking one future Hall of Famer (Brees) is somehow better than taking two (Tomlinson and Brees) in the same draft?

If you stick to your draft grades like Pirkster argues, you end up with both.  If you eschew draft grades and take the QB, you miss out on Tomlinson.

You're playing devil's advocate to a devil's advocate here. 

The issue with scenarios like this is you are the only team that knows how good both can be and nobody else does. So of course you do whatever lands you both prospects? 

The problem is you don't actually know what anyone else will do or think of the prospects. Its not as simple as just waiting for your HOF QB in the 2nd and taking your HOF RB in the 1st without anyone else wanting them..

I get that.

However, we can surmise what teams may have thought of Brees based upon what actually transpired in that 2001 draft.

There were any number of QB starved teams in 2001, but none thought to take Brees in the first round, including the Chargers.  In fact, Vick was the only QB taken in the first round that year.  Don't you think that if the other teams thought Brees to be a Hall of Fame QB, one of them would have invested a first round pick for him?

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

The original hypothesis was about Josh Allen (Who I don't think is a franchise guy)

If a team thought he was going to go in the 2nd , but they had him graded as a franchise guy, then it makes more sense to take him in the first than wait.

Honestly I'm not sure what part is difficult in all of this? Its strictly referring to franchise QB prospects.

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You're playing devil's advocate to a devil's advocate here. 

The issue with scenarios like this is you are the only team that knows how good both can be and nobody else does. So of course you do whatever lands you both prospects? 

The problem is you don't actually know what anyone else will do or think of the prospects. Its not as simple as just waiting for your HOF QB in the 2nd and taking your HOF RB in the 1st without anyone else wanting them..

I get that.

However, we can surmise what teams may have thought of Brees based upon what actually transpired in that 2001 draft.

There were any number of QB starved teams in 2001, but none thought to take Brees in the first round, including the Chargers.  In fact, Vick was the only QB taken in the first round that year.  Don't you think that if the other teams thought Brees to be a Hall of Fame QB, one of them would have invested a first round pick for him?

I'm not following the thought process Bullseye. Ignoring draft grades isn't what I'm talking about. If the Chargers had deemed Brees a HOF guy and LT a HOF guy they would have of course taken Brees first.  

Again, I'm not seeing the comparison between my scenario and this.

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Can anyone capture McShays top 100 picks for the Jaguars?

Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 (29): Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Round 2 (61): B.J. Hill, DT, NC State
Round 3 (93): Duke Dawson, CB, Florida

This would be an interesting spot for Jackson, who wouldn't need to play right away but could be a long-term solution if Blake Bortles doesn't continue to progress. Jackson is special with the ball in his hands and would be another playmaker. Hill is a two-down run-stuffer and Dawson could help in the slot to replace Aaron Colvin.

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You really, really aren't getting this.  You simply can't admit you're a mile off base here.

Change the rounds, and absolutely nothing changes.

Just to satisfy your fantasy, we'll pretend the Jaguars have a "franchise" grade on Jackson and Rudolph.  All other QBs were spoken for and expected to be well out of reach.  (Bear with me, I've had to really stretch beyond the necessary and realistic to follow you.)

They think both Jackson/Rudolph are gone to the Saints unless they go get him.  You're going to have to get ahead of the Saints to get your franchise guy.  Not a reach.  Have to move up unless you're satisfied with passing on your "franchise" qb in favor of upcoming drafts.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 3 grade on him.  If the Jags take him with their first rounder, they're still getting the value they expected.  It's only a few slots difference.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags take BAP with the first rounder and also select Rudolph in the 2nd.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags are afraid the Colts will take him at round 2 pick 17.  Jaguars take BAP with the first rounder and move back up early in the second ahead of the Colts to take Rudolph.

This is simply how it works in practice.

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."