So I went through this simulator and picked every game for every week. Tried to be super honest with myself, across the Jags remaining games I gave them wins vs every team except the tinhorns and clots.

It came down to the Jets beating the Bills in week 17, which gives us the WC over the BIlls.
However, if in week 17 we beat the clots, the Bills can beat the Jets and we'll get the WC.

In this scenario the tinhorns win the AFCS
and there are 3 teams battling for two WC spots, Jags, Bills, clots.

I just hope the Bills hot start simmers down and perhaps I'm wrong about being swept by the clots and tinhorns (but I do have us sweeping the tacks for the first time in what seems like forever)

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This is the exact scenario I discuss above.
Playing out the entire NFLs games we would need the Jets to beat the Bills in week 17, because the Bills would then finish with the same record (and we get tie breakers)
Although somehow I have the Bills starting 9-1 and finishing 9-7 (woof) lol

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Picking just Jags games in the above scenario and letting their simulator run the rest of the NFL Jags have 42% chance of making playoffs (as a WC)

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But if we split all divisional games our chances actually go down to 38%
Oops, if we split all divisional games our chances increase to 51% to make playoffs as WC and 37% to host WC (and a 97% total chance of making it)

Realistically, the Jags have to beat the Texans. They can split with the Colts, but then really need to beat the Titans.

The realism here is real.  Getting swept by a division rival would put a serious damper on playoff implications.

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If the Jaguars defeat the Jets and the Texans, their odds of making the playoffs increase to 50%.
Then they have 2 weeks to rest up and prepare for the AFC South participants from central Indiana.

I'll stop there for now.

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"Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something."        --Plato

We're ahead of the Browns, Bears, Chargers, and Falcons.  If you would have told me that in August I would have been super excited.

Two of those teams are NFC so don't really matter. But point taken as no one expected the Falcons to fall to pieces and the Bears looked better last year than they do this year.
Brownies were supposed to be something. I was riding that Baker train hard and he has disappointed (but I don't put it all on him, that OL sucks bawls)
Problem is that the Ravens are way better than I thought they'd be. As are the Bills.
And the rest of the AFCS is better than we thought they'd be, namely the clots minus Luck.



The best thing for this team to do is take care of what they can though. Just win. Preferably all of the remaining games, but certainly the AFC foes.
up first, the jests.

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If the Jaguars defeat the Jets and the Texans, their odds of making the playoffs increase to 50%.
Then they have 2 weeks to rest up and prepare for the AFC South participants from central Indiana.

I'll stop there for now.

We almost had the tinhorns in a low scoring affair.... but that was with he who shall not be named guarding Nuke.
I don't have great optimism about that match up in round 2. Even being a "home" game away from home.

If the team looks really good vs the jests it would go a long way in making me feel better about the match up across the pond.

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The bottom line is ALWAYS win the divisional games.  What makes the Patriots look so good is the fact that they play in a weak division (and it's been so for quite a while).  That's what made the Colts look so good for so many years.  The AFC South this season isn't as well defined.  There are 4 teams in our division that can realistically win the division.  In the AFC East, it's pretty much a two team battle.  In the AFC North it's basically already decided.  In the AFC West it's probable that the Chiefs will win it though the Raiders aren't really out of it.  The two "powerhouses" of that division (Broncos and Chargers) are pretty much done.

It's all about winning the division.

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There are 10 kinds of people in this world.  Those who understand binary and those who don't.