1,891 snaps at DE for Hutchinson in his time at Michigan. 17.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL in 4 seasons. 

"Walker played 200 snaps as a backup in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He had 37 of his career 65 college tackles last season. As a junior, he played 381 snaps at defensive end, 105 at defensive tackle, 98 at linebacker, 11 at nose guard and one as a cornerback, according to the NFL Network."

Can't find his snap count as a freshman for whatever reason, but based on the stats above it's pretty safe to assume he's played close to half as much football as Aidan Hutchinson, And on top of that he was not rushing the passer 100% of the time like Aidan was.

Yet, 17.5 sacks in nearly 2,000 snaps is "production" whilst 9.5 in what I would assume to be somewhere in the range of 500-700 snaps of rushing the passer, presumably less than that even looking at how Georgia played defense is considered "not producing"

It took Aidan Hutchinson 22 games to get 3.5 sacks as a pure pass rushing DE. It took Travon 29 games to get 9.5, whilst being a backup in each of his first two seasons and only just this year being a starter whilst also not rushing the passer 100% of the time. 

Hutchinson had one good year stats wise, How is this a sure fire pick? I think we made the correct choice here.

Good find!  One counter I could make to that was the stat breakdown of what % of their sacks were unblocked vs blocked.  Somewhere on these boards a month or so ago, someone posted a link to an image showing which rushers "earned" the biggest % of their sacks compared to those who were "gifted" their sacks because of being unblocked or just a good defensive play design.  Hutch and Thibs "earned" the majority of their sacks whereas as Walker was almost as high as 50% of his sacks were either being unblocked or just schemed.  Which if you think about it makes sense.  His role in that defense wasn't to rush the passer.  And when he did, they would often have him stunt around and there are highlights where you can see the offensive lineman getting confused and letting him rush clean.  He just didnt have that many sacks where he was asked to rush the passer and beat his guy straight up because he wasn't asked to do it.  If our plan is to turn him into a double digit sack guy in the NFL, it is based purely on potential and nothing with the numbers.

Obviously, have others have said 100 times on here, none of these guys were a slam dunk 1st overall.  And probably does them a disservice to hold them to that expectation even though that'll be what happens.  As I've thought about it more, I could see them both have an equally low floor and high ceiling.  The scheme fit and how much development they receive may ultimately determine who has the better career.  Hopefully for our sake we get the most out of Walker.  I'm assuming their plan is for him to be a double digit sack guy but if not, I do wonder what their vision looks like.

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________________________________________________
Scouting well is all that matters.  Draft philosophy is all fluff.

Just a reminder for those who are into these scores:

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1500...rMhujbciuw

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1,891 snaps at DE for Hutchinson in his time at Michigan. 17.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL in 4 seasons. 

"Walker played 200 snaps as a backup in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He had 37 of his career 65 college tackles last season. As a junior, he played 381 snaps at defensive end, 105 at defensive tackle, 98 at linebacker, 11 at nose guard and one as a cornerback, according to the NFL Network."

Can't find his snap count as a freshman for whatever reason, but based on the stats above it's pretty safe to assume he's played close to half as much football as Aidan Hutchinson, And on top of that he was not rushing the passer 100% of the time like Aidan was.

Yet, 17.5 sacks in nearly 2,000 snaps is "production" whilst 9.5 in what I would assume to be somewhere in the range of 500-700 snaps of rushing the passer, presumably less than that even looking at how Georgia played defense is considered "not producing"

It took Aidan Hutchinson 22 games to get 3.5 sacks as a pure pass rushing DE. It took Travon 29 games to get 9.5, whilst being a backup in each of his first two seasons and only just this year being a starter whilst also not rushing the passer 100% of the time. 

Hutchinson had one good year stats wise, How is this a sure fire pick? I think we made the correct choice here.

Good find!  One counter I could make to that was the stat breakdown of what % of their sacks were unblocked vs blocked.  Somewhere on these boards a month or so ago, someone posted a link to an image showing which rushers "earned" the biggest % of their sacks compared to those who were "gifted" their sacks because of being unblocked or just a good defensive play design.  Hutch and Thibs "earned" the majority of their sacks whereas as Walker was almost as high as 50% of his sacks were either being unblocked or just schemed.  Which if you think about it makes sense.  His role in that defense wasn't to rush the passer.  And when he did, they would often have him stunt around and there are highlights where you can see the offensive lineman getting confused and letting him rush clean.  He just didnt have that many sacks where he was asked to rush the passer and beat his guy straight up because he wasn't asked to do it.  If our plan is to turn him into a double digit sack guy in the NFL, it is based purely on potential and nothing with the numbers.

Obviously, have others have said 100 times on here, none of these guys were a slam dunk 1st overall.  And probably does them a disservice to hold them to that expectation even though that'll be what happens.  As I've thought about it more, I could see them both have an equally low floor and high ceiling.  The scheme fit and how much development they receive may ultimately determine who has the better career.  Hopefully for our sake we get the most out of Walker.  I'm assuming their plan is for him to be a double digit sack guy but if not, I do wonder what their vision looks like.

Yeah if you are wanting to rate him as a pass rusher right now he would be a day 3 pick. He has a ton of developing to do. Hopefully in the mean time he can be a force vs the run and get schemed into some pressures and hopefully sacks.

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Jim Caldwell sucks. So.... yea, I wouldn't listen to him

This post should be required reading for all board members.
Tells you everything you need to know about the author, that's for certain.

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I didn't like the film on Hutch. He is going to have a hard time this year. I saw very little move and or bend on the highlight reel. Bad year to have the number one pick. They probably should have taken the CB but big fast guys in the trenches are hard gets.

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The Khan Years

Patience, Persistence, and Piss Poor General Managers.

Jim Caldwell sucks. So.... yea, I wouldn't listen to him

This post should be required reading for all board members.
Tells you everything you need to know about the author, that's for certain.

I gotcha. Check me off the requirement list.

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A new broom always sweeps clean.

It will be interesting to compare how well the top rookies play throughout this season.

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I think it also doesn't help that for whatever reason, there didn't seem to be any "slam dunk" or "can't miss picks" at number 1, or in the top 5 for that matter. In years past, usually a QB of course, there was a player or players that were "no-brainers" at number 1. This crop seems weak.

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If they're listening to Caldwell they should be fired.

Are you perhaps forgetting that our defensive coordinator is Mike Caldwell?

Nah, I was just jerking his chain a bit, like a PTSD response.

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“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

I think people have both overstated how high Hutch's floor is and how low Walker's floor is.

Hutch is pretty unprecedented. There is basically no one as tall as he is with such short arms. He also wins off inside counter moves and bull rushes, it's pretty rare for an EDGE to win like that when they aren't scary around the corner. I think there's a decent chance Hutch is a guy who loses both the punch battle and the leverage battle, and whose counter moves don't work because the OT isn't scared of being beaten outside.

Walker with his freak athleticism, size, length, and versatility plus what he has shown on the field is pretty much guaranteed to be solid IMO. He may not ever become the pass rusher you would have hoped for at #1, but I think there's very little chance that he is flat out bad. There is that chance, even if it's small, that Hutch winds up being bad.

Some might say you’re being kind.

https://twitter.com/goran1510/status/151...ZfQZr0L5LA

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1,891 snaps at DE for Hutchinson in his time at Michigan. 17.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL in 4 seasons. 

"Walker played 200 snaps as a backup in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He had 37 of his career 65 college tackles last season. As a junior, he played 381 snaps at defensive end, 105 at defensive tackle, 98 at linebacker, 11 at nose guard and one as a cornerback, according to the NFL Network."

Can't find his snap count as a freshman for whatever reason, but based on the stats above it's pretty safe to assume he's played close to half as much football as Aidan Hutchinson, And on top of that he was not rushing the passer 100% of the time like Aidan was.

Yet, 17.5 sacks in nearly 2,000 snaps is "production" whilst 9.5 in what I would assume to be somewhere in the range of 500-700 snaps of rushing the passer, presumably less than that even looking at how Georgia played defense is considered "not producing"

It took Aidan Hutchinson 22 games to get 3.5 sacks as a pure pass rushing DE. It took Travon 29 games to get 9.5, whilst being a backup in each of his first two seasons and only just this year being a starter whilst also not rushing the passer 100% of the time. 

Hutchinson had one good year stats wise, How is this a sure fire pick? I think we made the correct choice here.

Very good post.  I remember hearing during the draft that Walker has less than half the snaps of hutch and Walker was never allowed to settle into one position.

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Just a reminder for those who are into these scores:

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1500...rMhujbciuw

RAS Comps for Travon Walker as a DE
Myles Garrett Texas A&M 20179.99
Jevon Kearse Florida 1999 9.97
Ezekiel Ansah Brigham Young 2013 9.76
Shawne Merriman Maryland 2005 9.95
Preston Smith Mississippi State 2015 9.83

Pretty good company

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Just a reminder for those who are into these scores:

https://twitter.com/MathBomb/status/1500...rMhujbciuw

RAS Comps for Travon Walker as a DE
Myles Garrett Texas A&M 20179.99
Jevon Kearse Florida 1999 9.97
Ezekiel Ansah Brigham Young 2013 9.76
Shawne Merriman Maryland 2005 9.95
Preston Smith Mississippi State 2015 9.83

Pretty good company

Brian Johnston

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Interesting find. Well, if I’m wrong about Walker, I’ll apologize…

We’ll see….

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"If you always do what you've always done, You'll always get what you always got"

Interesting find. Well, if I’m wrong about Walker, I’ll apologize…

We’ll see….

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1,891 snaps at DE for Hutchinson in his time at Michigan. 17.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL in 4 seasons. 

"Walker played 200 snaps as a backup in 2020, per Pro Football Focus. He had 37 of his career 65 college tackles last season. As a junior, he played 381 snaps at defensive end, 105 at defensive tackle, 98 at linebacker, 11 at nose guard and one as a cornerback, according to the NFL Network."

Can't find his snap count as a freshman for whatever reason, but based on the stats above it's pretty safe to assume he's played close to half as much football as Aidan Hutchinson, And on top of that he was not rushing the passer 100% of the time like Aidan was.

Yet, 17.5 sacks in nearly 2,000 snaps is "production" whilst 9.5 in what I would assume to be somewhere in the range of 500-700 snaps of rushing the passer, presumably less than that even looking at how Georgia played defense is considered "not producing"

It took Aidan Hutchinson 22 games to get 3.5 sacks as a pure pass rushing DE. It took Travon 29 games to get 9.5, whilst being a backup in each of his first two seasons and only just this year being a starter whilst also not rushing the passer 100% of the time. 

Hutchinson had one good year stats wise, How is this a sure fire pick? I think we made the correct choice here.

Good find!  One counter I could make to that was the stat breakdown of what % of their sacks were unblocked vs blocked.  Somewhere on these boards a month or so ago, someone posted a link to an image showing which rushers "earned" the biggest % of their sacks compared to those who were "gifted" their sacks because of being unblocked or just a good defensive play design.  Hutch and Thibs "earned" the majority of their sacks whereas as Walker was almost as high as 50% of his sacks were either being unblocked or just schemed.  Which if you think about it makes sense.  His role in that defense wasn't to rush the passer.  And when he did, they would often have him stunt around and there are highlights where you can see the offensive lineman getting confused and letting him rush clean.  He just didnt have that many sacks where he was asked to rush the passer and beat his guy straight up because he wasn't asked to do it.  If our plan is to turn him into a double digit sack guy in the NFL, it is based purely on potential and nothing with the numbers.

Obviously, have others have said 100 times on here, none of these guys were a slam dunk 1st overall.  And probably does them a disservice to hold them to that expectation even though that'll be what happens.  As I've thought about it more, I could see them both have an equally low floor and high ceiling.  The scheme fit and how much development they receive may ultimately determine who has the better career.  Hopefully for our sake we get the most out of Walker.  I'm assuming their plan is for him to be a double digit sack guy but if not, I do wonder what their vision looks like.

I saw this a while back and it gave me pause, but then you realize he had 9 sacks and played far less snaps and it starts to mean less to me because instead of hearing "49% of his sacks came from stuns, you can simplify it to "4.5 of his sacks came from stunts" and it doesnt really sound that bad, also in some of his highlights you see him do a "stunt" and still run through a linemen on the way to the backfield so I wonder how much thats taken into account. 

I will say this tho, he has a nasty bull-rush.. let him learn some other moves and he might be insane.

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I think it also doesn't help that for whatever reason, there didn't seem to be any "slam dunk" or "can't miss picks" at number 1, or in the top 5 for that matter. In years past, usually a QB of course, there was a player or players that were "no-brainers" at number 1. This crop seems weak.

I think the reason it felt like that was purely because there was no concensus lineman/QB prospect. I think Sauce Gardner had a solid case to go 1 based on how good he was, but DB never gets looked at in that light. There seems to be an abundance of talent coming from this draft, just not that one guy.. or a QB.

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I think it also doesn't help that for whatever reason, there didn't seem to be any "slam dunk" or "can't miss picks" at number 1, or in the top 5 for that matter. In years past, usually a QB of course, there was a player or players that were "no-brainers" at number 1. This crop seems weak.

I think the reason it felt like that was purely because there was no concensus lineman/QB prospect. I think Sauce Gardner had a solid case to go 1 based on how good he was, but DB never gets looked at in that light. There seems to be an abundance of talent coming from this draft, just not that one guy.. or a QB.

Gardner wasn't even the first corner taken

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I think the reason it felt like that was purely because there was no concensus lineman/QB prospect. I think Sauce Gardner had a solid case to go 1 based on how good he was, but DB never gets looked at in that light. There seems to be an abundance of talent coming from this draft, just not that one guy.. or a QB.

Gardner wasn't even the first corner taken

...so you're saying we should laugh at the tinhorns?

OK, you're the boss.

LOL tinhorns

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I think it also doesn't help that for whatever reason, there didn't seem to be any "slam dunk" or "can't miss picks" at number 1, or in the top 5 for that matter. In years past, usually a QB of course, there was a player or players that were "no-brainers" at number 1. This crop seems weak.

I think the reason it felt like that was purely because there was no concensus lineman/QB prospect. I think Sauce Gardner had a solid case to go 1 based on how good he was, but DB never gets looked at in that light. There seems to be an abundance of talent coming from this draft, just not that one guy.. or a QB.

I think with a different situation Gardner could have gone #1 in this class. Just not with a pass rush fetish like Baalke has, and not with a depth chart where corner is probably our best position group already.

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