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Predator · 04-02-2015, 09:51 PM

Quote:Sure, it's a possibility. We don't know what Dave's board looks like - but I'm saying if he's got the best player available on his board, let's take him.

The probability of hitting on later picks is smaller than when you pick #3 overall.

Like I said, our roster is almost too young and too inexperienced, we don't need to add multiple rookies everywhere. Hopefully some of the ones we drafted last year turn into superstars.

The probability that the #3 pick is a home run might be greater than a single guy later in the 1st rd, but it is not likely to be greater than the combined probability of the multiple players you get from trading down.

On top of that, you get the possibility of hitting a home run multiple times with the multiple players acquired for the pick. That is an impossibility from the 1 pick alone.

We have seen time and time again that nothing is guaranteed with a top pick. Nothing wrong with picking a guy if you really believe his is worth the pick. but if you aren't sold on the player slotted at the top of the draft, then you basically find yourself in a crap shoot, and nothing increases you odds more in a crap shoot than getting more shots.

Ordar · 04-02-2015, 09:56 PM

All I would say is that Cleveland has missed multiple times on having 2 mid to high picks. Personally I wouldn't trade outside the top 10, if at all

Predator · 04-03-2015, 04:27 AM

Quote:All I would say is that Cleveland has missed multiple times on having 2 mid to high picks. Personally I wouldn't trade outside the top 10, if at all

Cleveland has missed on multiple high picks too.

Here are Cleveland's top 5 picks since 1999:

Tim Couch

Courtney Brown

Gerard Warren

Braylon Edwards

Joe Thomas

Trent Green

Of all those guys, Joe Thomas is the only one I would consider worth a top 5 pick

A couple of those guys were the number 1 overall pick.

People get enamored with the thought of a high draft pick. The reality is they aren't always that successful.

Cleveland has actually had more success in that time frame with first rd picks drafted outside of the top 5.

Bullseye · 04-03-2015, 06:30 AM

Quote:Your initial argument, from what I saw, was that it did not matter if you picked third or if you picked in the top 25. To me that is not accurate. Picking third increases your chance on hitting on a prospect. That is if you pick well.

Now you're talking about the prospects, aka the investments. You're also assuming that every pick outside of Winston and whomever the 2nd pick (not Mariota) has a lower beta, aka risk, grade on them. If for argument sake, Winston and Williams are off the board when we pick. And lets say that DC has a risk/grade on those two and Cooper of above 95, and the next grades are 91 and below. You don't trade away that pick to potentially get a player with a grade of 91 and below. The risk of their ROI is much higher. To the OPs point, we have plenty of those players on our team right now. Go for the player with the highest potential return/upside to pair with the other investments.

As to your opening line in bold, it was never my assertion, expressly or tacitly stated, that there is no difference between the 3rd pick or as low as 25. I have always argued the higher you pick in a draft, the greater access to the available talent pool you have. The available talent pool shrinks with each successive pick. While picking high does not guarantee your pick will be a superstar and does not absolve the high picking team of its responsibility to choose wisely, if the team has done its due diligence and has rated the talent pool accurately, the chances of getting a good player theoretically increases. Conversely, as you get lower in the draft order, you become more reliant on the teams ahead of you to miss. It becomes harder for a team to draft a player that will become a star caliber player. It is that principle that is behind the NFL's draft order rules, which helps to foster competitive balance by having the worst teams pick first and the best teams picking last in the draft order. I have never argued otherwise in my years of posting.

Having said that, I have not argued there is no value in trading down. When certain circumstances are met, it is preferable to trade down.

I am talking about "investments" because you introduced that term into the discussion (unless I misinterpreted your use of "ROI."

Regarding your closing analysis, I agree with the premise of not trading away from elite talent as a general principle, which is why last year I strongly advocated AGAINST trading down. I thought the Jaguars were in a good position at 3, and at that spot, we'd have the choice of the QB of our choosing or Jadeveon Clowney, who, looking at him as a pure physical specimen and football prospect, far transcends anyone on the board this year. I saw him as the elite talent you don't trade away from. Absent him, I wanted the team to pick a QB. Potential franchise QBs are rare, and it isn't often you are in position to draft one without having to trade up. Jacksonville was in a position to land a QB if Clowney went off the board. We chose the QB, so QB, at this point, is not a need. I do not see that kind of transcendent non QB talent at the top of the board this year. I think the difference between the top of the draft board this year and the next level is much smaller than the difference in the top of the draft board last year and the next level.

Given that, as I illustrated earlier with the Walsh and Jimmy Johnson examples, quantity can offer the opportunity for quality. If you have a GM that can readily identify NFL caliber talent at lower points in the draft...in the mid to late rounds, he could stock a team in a hurry with good even transcendent players. That's how in 2008, Ozzie Newsome could pull off a trade down with Jacksonville. Jacksonville at 8 chose Derrick Harvey. Baltimore, picking much lower, chose Joe Flacco. Later that same draft, while Jacksonville was blowing a 2nd round pick ( and more since they traded up) on Quentin Groves, Baltimore wound up with Ray Rice. Conversely, if you have a GM that miscalculates the available talent, no draft position, no matter how high or low, or no amount of picks is going to help.

I think last year showed Caldwell is capable of finding those mid to late round gems. Let's give him more chances to do this. It's not s if this is a team without holes, even with the good young nucleus.

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!

Andy G · 04-03-2015, 07:48 AM

This thread must have set new records for number of words used.

WingerDinger · 04-03-2015, 08:28 AM

Quote:This thread must have set new records for number of words used.

Definitely not "skim worthy".

Jaguarforlife · 04-03-2015, 10:41 AM

I am all for a trade down if it only gets multple picks. Trading down is not worth it if the BAP is right there for picking. Take the pick and find ways to trade back late in the draft.

**NYC4jags** · 04-03-2015, 01:47 PM

Shadrick, Oehser, and Sexton talk pros/cons of trading back at the one minute mark in this vid for those interested:

http://www.jaguars.com/media-gallery/vid...b90b98ddb0

Patrick Mccormack · 04-03-2015, 02:07 PM

Quote:Shadrick, Oehser, and Sexton talk pros/cons of trading back at the one minute mark in this vid for those interested:

http://www.jaguars.com/media-gallery/vid...b90b98ddb0

Finally, common sense! The Jaguars, unless they get a farm like trade, should not trade back. We need super star athletes on this team. We need guys that can come in right away and be THE GUY. Leonard Williams at 3, no matter what anyone thinks, would be absolutely astounding for this defense and this team. We get Leonard Williams at 3, thats a steal. I still would not rule out Amari Cooper at 3. I would easily take him and watch our offense just take off.

If the Browns, Saints or Chargers want to give their next two drafts to us for a shot at Mariota, fine. Id love it. But if trading back just to trade back is what you want, it won't make the team better. Especially if you miss out on your Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler, Beasley, whoever. Jaguars are sitting at 3. Theres going to be a couple premiere talents available, its going to be hard to pass them up especially with how young and talent depleted we have been.

Bullseye · 04-03-2015, 02:58 PM

Quote:Finally, common sense! The Jaguars, unless they get a farm like trade, should not trade back. We need super star athletes on this team. We need guys that can come in right away and be THE GUY. Leonard Williams at 3, no matter what anyone thinks, would be absolutely astounding for this defense and this team. We get Leonard Williams at 3, thats a steal. I still would not rule out Amari Cooper at 3. I would easily take him and watch our offense just take off.

If the Browns, Saints or Chargers want to give their next two drafts to us for a shot at Mariota, fine. Id love it. But if trading back just to trade back is what you want, it won't make the team better. Especially if you miss out on your Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler, Beasley, whoever. Jaguars are sitting at 3. Theres going to be a couple premiere talents available, its going to be hard to pass them up especially with how young and talent depleted we have been.

I think Williams is a bit overrated.

I see a guy who doesn't protect his legs well at all, and is every bit the cut block Dick Vermeil thought John Henderson would be.

I also see a guy who doesn't seem particularly quick off the snap.

Worst to 1st. Curse Reversed!

SuperJville · 04-03-2015, 05:15 PM

Quote:Finally, common sense! The Jaguars, unless they get a farm like trade, should not trade back. We need super star athletes on this team. We need guys that can come in right away and be THE GUY. Leonard Williams at 3, no matter what anyone thinks, would be absolutely astounding for this defense and this team. We get Leonard Williams at 3, thats a steal. I still would not rule out Amari Cooper at 3. I would easily take him and watch our offense just take off.

If the Browns, Saints or Chargers want to give their next two drafts to us for a shot at Mariota, fine. Id love it. But if trading back just to trade back is what you want, it won't make the team better. Especially if you miss out on your Leonard Williams, Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler, Beasley, whoever. Jaguars are sitting at 3. Theres going to be a couple premiere talents available, its going to be hard to pass them up especially with how young and talent depleted we have been.

That's basically what I meant with the OP. You either take an unbelievable trade down deal, but you should look at drafting Williams or Cooper at 3.

SuperJville · 04-25-2015, 08:03 AM

At the luncheon, Dave Caldwell echoed my sentiments earlier. There's 3-5 guys that he calls "difference makers" that he's looking at, and he is taking one of them at #3. He would rather have one difference maker than 2 solid players.

It may all just be misdirection obviously but I found it interesting.