The original hypothesis was about Josh Allen (Who I don't think is a franchise guy)

If a team thought he was going to go in the 2nd , but they had him graded as a franchise guy, then it makes more sense to take him in the first than wait.  

Honestly I'm not sure what part is difficult in all of this? Its strictly referring to franchise QB prospects.

Your point is not difficult to understand at all.

Hell I actually support your side.  I would be very hard pressed to "wait" until later to get a guy I thought was a franchise QB.  In fact, I dare say that if there was a guy I felt would be a franchise signal caller, I'd have a much higher grade on him, making the value argument moot.  Yes, QBs are different.

But reading the debate brought the 2001 Chargers to mind, and I felt that supported Pirkster's argument.  The 2L in me just wanted to see how the debate would transpire.

I do not think the Chargers were sold that Brees was going to be a franchise guy.  If they were, I think they would have taken him over Tomlinson.

But my point is there is an argument to be made for knowing how you view a player, and how other teams view a player, and taking a player as low as you can.  Just like trading down can maximize value, "knowing the value and the market" for a player maximizes value too.

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Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

You really, really aren't getting this.  You simply can't admit you're a mile off base here.

Change the rounds, and absolutely nothing changes.

Just to satisfy your fantasy, we'll pretend the Jaguars have a "franchise" grade on Jackson and Rudolph.  All other QBs were spoken for and expected to be well out of reach.  (Bear with me, I've had to really stretch beyond the necessary and realistic to follow you.)

They think both Jackson/Rudolph are gone to the Saints unless they go get him.  You're going to have to get ahead of the Saints to get your franchise guy.  Not a reach.  Have to move up unless you're satisfied with passing on your "franchise" qb in favor of upcoming drafts.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 3 grade on him.  If the Jags take him with their first rounder, they're still getting the value they expected.  It's only a few slots difference.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags take BAP with the first rounder and also select Rudolph in the 2nd.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags are afraid the Colts will take him at round 2 pick 17.  Jaguars take BAP with the first rounder and move back up early in the second ahead of the Colts to take Rudolph.

This is simply how it works in practice.

In this scenario if the Jaguars have a franchise grade on Rudolph they take him in the first instead of A) Allowing any other team in the first or 2nd a chance to draft him (if you have a franchise grade on him it's entirely reasonable other teams do) and B) You don't have to find a way to trade up in the 2nd to ensure you get him. 

You leave the draft with a franchise QB a happy man. The alternative is you risk losing him.

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You really, really aren't getting this.  You simply can't admit you're a mile off base here.

Change the rounds, and absolutely nothing changes.

Just to satisfy your fantasy, we'll pretend the Jaguars have a "franchise" grade on Jackson and Rudolph.  All other QBs were spoken for and expected to be well out of reach.  (Bear with me, I've had to really stretch beyond the necessary and realistic to follow you.)

They think both Jackson/Rudolph are gone to the Saints unless they go get him.  You're going to have to get ahead of the Saints to get your franchise guy.  Not a reach.  Have to move up unless you're satisfied with passing on your "franchise" qb in favor of upcoming drafts.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 3 grade on him.  If the Jags take him with their first rounder, they're still getting the value they expected.  It's only a few slots difference.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags take BAP with the first rounder and also select Rudolph in the 2nd.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags are afraid the Colts will take him at round 2 pick 17.  Jaguars take BAP with the first rounder and move back up early in the second ahead of the Colts to take Rudolph.

This is simply how it works in practice.

I've gotta say I read through this whole thread and firmly agree with pirk and bullseye here. 

Logically it makes complete sense. There must be some sort of disconnect.

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Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

Thanks for confirming that you're not following. There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table. Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting. It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason. You select where the pick meets the value. You always lose something when you don't. If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round. You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth. It's where you graded him. Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision. Never fall in love with a player.

---

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

The original hypothesis was about Josh Allen (Who I don't think is a franchise guy)

If a team thought he was going to go in the 2nd , but they had him graded as a franchise guy, then it makes more sense to take him in the first than wait.  

Honestly I'm not sure what part is difficult in all of this? Its strictly referring to franchise QB prospects.

Your point is not difficult to understand at all.

Hell I actually support your side.  I would be very hard pressed to "wait" until later to get a guy I thought was a franchise QB.  In fact, I dare say that if there was a guy I felt would be a franchise signal caller, I'd have a much higher grade on him, making the value argument moot.  Yes, QBs are different.

But reading the debate brought the 2001 Chargers to mind, and I felt that supported Pirkster's argument.  The 2L in me just wanted to see how the debate would transpire.

I do not think the Chargers were sold that Brees was going to be a franchise guy.  If they were, I think they would have taken him over Tomlinson.

But my point is there is an argument to be made for knowing how you view a player, and how other teams view a player, and taking a player as low as you can.  Just like trading down can maximize value, "knowing the value and the market" for a player maximizes value too.

Okay I understand you better now. 

The essential part of what I'm saying is if you have a QB graded as a franchise QB, then you take him ASAP rather than give others the chance. Even if the pre draft consensus seems to be that they will be drafted a round to two later.  As you said a lot of this is moot because most franchise guys are already projected in the first. Was really just explaining how teams would view a specific scenario relating to Josh Allen.

Yep fully agree. Generally you aim to take players as low as you can, within reason. No point taking someone like Brandon Linder in the first even if you highly rate him. With QBs , it all goes out the door.

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You really, really aren't getting this.  You simply can't admit you're a mile off base here.

Change the rounds, and absolutely nothing changes.

Just to satisfy your fantasy, we'll pretend the Jaguars have a "franchise" grade on Jackson and Rudolph.  All other QBs were spoken for and expected to be well out of reach.  (Bear with me, I've had to really stretch beyond the necessary and realistic to follow you.)

They think both Jackson/Rudolph are gone to the Saints unless they go get him.  You're going to have to get ahead of the Saints to get your franchise guy.  Not a reach.  Have to move up unless you're satisfied with passing on your "franchise" qb in favor of upcoming drafts.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 3 grade on him.  If the Jags take him with their first rounder, they're still getting the value they expected.  It's only a few slots difference.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags take BAP with the first rounder and also select Rudolph in the 2nd.

Say Jackson is taken by the Saints, but Rudolph is still there.  Rudolph has a round 2 pick 31 grade on him.  Jags are afraid the Colts will take him at round 2 pick 17.  Jaguars take BAP with the first rounder and move back up early in the second ahead of the Colts to take Rudolph.

This is simply how it works in practice.

(emphasis added)

Now I'm going to argue the other side.

As to the portion in bold, that's how it works in theory.  I submit it rarely works out this way in practice...at least as it pertains to franchise QBs.

First problem involves Rudolph's grade.  My question is Rudolph's grade according to whom?  If you assume that every team has exactly the same grade on Rudolph, fine.  The fact is, even with a consensus, there will likely be at least one team, probably more, that has a higher grade/need at QB than you, who presumably has him a rnd 2 pick 31 grade.  That one team can be enough to ruin your draft hopes.

Second problem is even assuming you see the need to trade up to get your guy, it doesn't mean teams are willing to trade down to accommodate your desire for a QB.  Maybe the player they want is already on the board.  Maybe the team that has the higher grade on Rudolph offered more to trade up for him.  The fact is, trades are far easier to make on a message board.  If there is a guy you think is a legitimate franchise QB, and you don't have one, it is absolute hubris to pass on him thinking he will be around later.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Thanks for confirming that you're not following.  There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table.  Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting.  It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason.  You select where the pick meets the value.  You always lose something when you don't.  If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round.  You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth.  It's where you graded him.  Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision.  Never fall in love with a player.

You are missing the point entirely Pirkster (not that that's surprising). 

Your "grade" on them is that they are a franchise guy. The general consensus may be that they will be a 2nd round guy but you have them graded as a franchise QB. You take that player in the first instead of letting him be taking by another team. 

That's why every single year every team makes huge moves to get "their" guy. They are too valuable to miss out on.

---

Thanks for confirming that you're not following.  There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table.  Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting.  It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason.  You select where the pick meets the value.  You always lose something when you don't.  If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round.  You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth.  It's where you graded him.  Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision.  Never fall in love with a player.

Fear of losing a player you love is how you end up with Tyson Alualu

---

Thanks for confirming that you're not following.  There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table.  Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting.  It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason.  You select where the pick meets the value.  You always lose something when you don't.  If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round.  You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth.  It's where you graded him.  Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision.  Never fall in love with a player.

Fear of losing a player you love is how you end up with Tyson Alualu

It's also how you end up with a Troy Aikman, Peyton manning, Bruce Smith, or any other player you have rated highest on the board and still don't trade down.

Evaluating the player incorrectly is how you end up with Tyson Alualu being a top ten pick.

Even if you had no fear of losing the player, and traded down to the bottom of the first round and still drafted him to the Jaguars, he'd still have the same lack of impact for us as he would have had as a top ten pick.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

Thanks for confirming that you're not following.  There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table.  Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting.  It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason.  You select where the pick meets the value.  You always lose something when you don't.  If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round.  You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth.  It's where you graded him.  Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision.  Never fall in love with a player.

Fear of losing a player you love is how you end up with Tyson Alualu

Well I was going to eat dinner but for some reason I just lost my appetite

---

Coughlin when asked if winning will be a focus: "What the hell else is there? This is nice and dandy, but winning is what all this is about."

Thanks for confirming that you're not following.  There's no "discussion" with you on this topic.

You don't leave value on the table.  Period.

Otherwise, you're talking Madden drafting.  It's just not realistic.

Clubs grade them for a reason.  You select where the pick meets the value.  You always lose something when you don't.  If you think he could be your franchise guy but he's got enough flaws or uncertainties to give him a non-first round grade, you do NOT draft him in the first round.  You draft him where he grades.

It's why Brady is taken in the sixth.  It's where you graded him.  Anyone would have been a fool to draft him in the first.

Once emotion, like "fear" of losing a player - ANY player, enters the equation, you are certain to make a horribly bad decision.  Never fall in love with a player.

Fear of losing a player you love is how you end up with Tyson Alualu

---