Say Manziel and Bridgewater play the exact same way in the NFL like they did in college, who would you take? I think I would go Johnny, but Bridge would also be a great pick. 

Too bad this quote has not been quoted and requoted and bookmarked in this thread. This is it.

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I want 3 players. Clowney, Bridgewater, Manziel. Jaguars have the number 3 pick. Just give me one of those 3 at 3, and I'm happy.

 

My top 6 favorite posters on these boards

Deacon
Pirkster
Shack Del Rio
Haterade
Hurricane
Badger

But is this really true?

 

How can you discern the legitimate critiques of a prospect from the contrived critiques promulgated in an effort to make a prospect fall?

 

How can you discern legitimate praise for a prospect vs. the attemps to bolster the trade up market for a team's pick?

 

How can you discern legitimate interest in a player vs. attempts to obfuscate a team's actual interest in players by examining these individual pre draft visits?

 

I'm just going by history.

 

In the eleventh hour, a lot comes out just before it actually happens.

 

Gosselin has trusted contacts that made his mocks the most accurate.  It wasn't luck or guessing (which always comes up short.)

 

As far as the hype, you stick to the facts and learn who to tune in or tune out.  I'll use Bridgewater as an example.  I questioned where all the hype was coming from, pointed out the flaws NFL scouts don't like, and certainly wasn't surprised when the wheels fell off the bandwagon... and all of a sudden we're back at Planet Theory with Clowney being the talk.  The other option being what John McClain wrote about long ago, that if it wasn't Clowney it's Bortles/Manziel because he feels they want a QB bad.  I was met with insults and smack talk from everyone who insisted Bridgewater was the best player in the draft, because they were listening/looking for what they wanted to hear/see and tuned out the whispers that had been there all along in the open.  That wasn't guesswork or luck, it was tuning out the hype and paying attention to what was important.  Yes, it's a very big deal when a QB can't throw a football without WR gloves.  It's a very big deal when a QB is rail thin, and it's also a big deal when there's an eerie silence about the QB who is supposedly the best in the class since they're usually the unquestionable first overall pick.  All the signs were there from the start that indicated something wasn't adding up.

 

This happens all the time.  The rise of Cam Newton, Mario Williams, the fall of Geno Smith and others... sooner or later these stories get traction.  You can reference Vic's hint at the Jaguars going after Alualu on the radio show a few days prior to the draft.  Ditto Caldwell saying he'd take the available of the two tackles last year.  It all comes better in to focus as the draft comes nearer.  Not everything, obviously.  But as you get closer to the draft we get closer to the truth, even though you'll never have it all.  The unexpected still happens.

---

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

I don't know if this has been posted, but this is pretty funny. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-chang...r-opens-up

---

I'm just going by history.

 

In the eleventh hour, a lot comes out just before it actually happens.

 

Gosselin has trusted contacts that made his mocks the most accurate.  It wasn't luck or guessing (which always comes up short.)

 

As far as the hype, you stick to the facts and learn who to tune in or tune out.  I'll use Bridgewater as an example.  I questioned where all the hype was coming from, pointed out the flaws NFL scouts don't like, and certainly wasn't surprised when the wheels fell off the bandwagon... and all of a sudden we're back at Planet Theory with Clowney being the talk.  The other option being what John McClain wrote about long ago, that if it wasn't Clowney it's Bortles/Manziel because he feels they want a QB bad.  I was met with insults and smack talk from everyone who insisted Bridgewater was the best player in the draft, because they were listening/looking for what they wanted to hear/see and tuned out the whispers that had been there all along in the open.  That wasn't guesswork or luck, it was tuning out the hype and paying attention to what was important.  Yes, it's a very big deal when a QB can't throw a football without WR gloves.  It's a very big deal when a QB is rail thin, and it's also a big deal when there's an eerie silence about the QB who is supposedly the best in the class since they're usually the unquestionable first overall pick.  All the signs were there from the start that indicated something wasn't adding up.

 

This happens all the time.  The rise of Cam Newton, Mario Williams, the fall of Geno Smith and others... sooner or later these stories get traction.  You can reference Vic's hint at the Jaguars going after Alualu on the radio show a few days prior to the draft.  Ditto Caldwell saying he'd take the available of the two tackles last year.  It all comes better in to focus as the draft comes nearer.  Not everything, obviously.  But as you get closer to the draft we get closer to the truth, even though you'll never have it all.  The unexpected still happens.

 

There is a difference between reading the tea leaves due to your league contacts in the last minute to determine what team takes what player at what point in the first round and determining which prospects will have successful NFL careers.

 

If I say Bridgewater is a top 3 pick who will have a HOF career, he gets picked in the top 3 and bombs, was I right?

 

If you say Bridgewater is vastly overrated, he drops to the bottom of the first round, but has a career that warrants HOF consideration, were you right?

 

I don't know you, and I don't say this to insult you, but I think it's doubtful you have the league contacts Rick Gosselin, McClain, or Ketchman has.

 

Even with the contacts, it doesn't preclude them from being wrong when it comes to talent evaluation.  Ketchman is the same guy who hyped Beanie Wells and Rob Pettiti.  We all know how they turned out.

---

 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!

There is a difference between reading the tea leaves due to your league contacts in the last minute to determine what team takes what player at what point in the first round and determining which prospects will have successful NFL careers.

 

If I say Bridgewater is a top 3 pick who will have a HOF career, he gets picked in the top 3 and bombs, was I right?

 

If you say Bridgewater is vastly overrated, he drops to the bottom of the first round, but has a career that warrants HOF consideration, were you right?

 

I don't know you, and I don't say this to insult you, but I think it's doubtful you have the league contacts Rick Gosselin, McClain, or Ketchman has.

 

Even with the contacts, it doesn't preclude them from being wrong when it comes to talent evaluation.  Ketchman is the same guy who hyped Beanie Wells and Rob Pettiti.  We all know how they turned out.

Whether he eventually succeeds or not isn't the point. Over-hyping by the media means predicting that the organizations have a higher value on a player than they actually do. It's not necessarily a knock on a players potential, it could be they see some risk factors or extra things he will have to overcome to achieve his potential that pushes the player down the board.

 

A mock draft isn't supposed to reflect an individuals personal preference but rather how the teams will value certain players. The guy you may feel is the top player could be mocked at the 15th spot because the actual teams preferences and idea of value may push him back to that spot. What you have to remember is that the people creating mocks aren't the ones drafting. It shouldn't be a reflection of their own personal preferences.

 

You can expect the same payoff from the 3rd or the 20th pick, it's just with the 3rd pick teams want the better odds. They want the fewer question marks concerning the player.

 

Don't get risk and potential confused. Everyone can see the potential in Bridgewater. Where he is drafted will more reflect the perceived risk of him not being able to achieve his potential due to his question marks.

 

He is not the prototypical mold for a NFL QB. That could be seen as enough of a risk factor by some teams to push him down the board. That doesn't mean he can't be perceived as potentially the best player in the draft.

---

There is a difference between reading the tea leaves due to your league contacts in the last minute to determine what team takes what player at what point in the first round and determining which prospects will have successful NFL careers.

 

If I say Bridgewater is a top 3 pick who will have a HOF career, he gets picked in the top 3 and bombs, was I right?

 

If you say Bridgewater is vastly overrated, he drops to the bottom of the first round, but has a career that warrants HOF consideration, were you right?

 

I don't know you, and I don't say this to insult you, but I think it's doubtful you have the league contacts Rick Gosselin, McClain, or Ketchman has.

 

Even with the contacts, it doesn't preclude them from being wrong when it comes to talent evaluation.  Ketchman is the same guy who hyped Beanie Wells and Rob Pettiti.  We all know how they turned out.

 

Predator summed it up quite well.

 

There are two parts to the equation.  Selection and development.  They are completely separate, even though we like to project at the selection phase, and reflect after the development phase.  But again, those are two separate entities.

 

The draft is about selection.  The idea is to get the best value.  Draft a player at his lowest (not highest) point.  It's counter-intuitive, but true.  There's no reason to select a player higher than necessary, especially at the expense of passing up better talent elsewhere.

 

What happens after he's selected tells the tale of your scouting and development.  Everybody misses, but to miss after poor value is both a franchise and a career killer.  Instead, if you've gotten good value then you should be able to weather the misses that are sure to come no matter how good you are.

 

That's why I believe these fantasy "re-drafts" are silly.  If NE were to re-draft the year they took Brady, they'd select him where they did all over again.

 

You sound like you're asking for guarantees, but there simply aren't any.  Value selection seems the only prudent way to combat the uncertainty.  The risk must be offset by reward, and so sets the value.  Value being price worth paying versus the risk.  Sometimes I feel some of these discussions aren't very productive but rather end up being an exercise in talking in circles, an exercise in futility.  Sisyphus pushing the rock up the hill.  When we're taking about an inexact science and philosophies, anyone can always talk themselves out of any plausible answer without really trying hard at all (just as easily as the rock falls back off the top of the hill.)

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"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

If I understand correctly, we shouldn't care how the player ends up performing as long as we didn't "reach"
.

 

That is stupid. The draft is about building your team for the future, who cares if you reached if you end up right ? You can sacrifice a little perceived value if the addition has more impact on your results, like an upgrade at QB over an upgrade at LT.

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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000...jay-cutler


Bridgewater working out with Brandon Marshall & Jay Cutler. 

---

I'm just going by history.

 

In the eleventh hour, a lot comes out just before it actually happens.

 

Gosselin has trusted contacts that made his mocks the most accurate.  It wasn't luck or guessing (which always comes up short.)

 

As far as the hype, you stick to the facts and learn who to tune in or tune out.  I'll use Bridgewater as an example.  I questioned where all the hype was coming from, pointed out the flaws NFL scouts don't like, and certainly wasn't surprised when the wheels fell off the bandwagon... and all of a sudden we're back at Planet Theory with Clowney being the talk.  The other option being what John McClain wrote about long ago, that if it wasn't Clowney it's Bortles/Manziel because he feels they want a QB bad.  I was met with insults and smack talk from everyone who insisted Bridgewater was the best player in the draft, because they were listening/looking for what they wanted to hear/see and tuned out the whispers that had been there all along in the open.  That wasn't guesswork or luck, it was tuning out the hype and paying attention to what was important.  Yes, it's a very big deal when a QB can't throw a football without WR gloves.  It's a very big deal when a QB is rail thin, and it's also a big deal when there's an eerie silence about the QB who is supposedly the best in the class since they're usually the unquestionable first overall pick.  All the signs were there from the start that indicated something wasn't adding up.

 

This happens all the time.  The rise of Cam Newton, Mario Williams, the fall of Geno Smith and others... sooner or later these stories get traction.  You can reference Vic's hint at the Jaguars going after Alualu on the radio show a few days prior to the draft.  Ditto Caldwell saying he'd take the available of the two tackles last year.  It all comes better in to focus as the draft comes nearer.  Not everything, obviously.  But as you get closer to the draft we get closer to the truth, even though you'll never have it all.  The unexpected still happens.

 

Its not the 11th hour. Still over 4 weeks to go.

 

The fact is, you've been humping Clowney's leg for over a year and have dismissed anyone who is not him as unworthy of being in the same discussion for top spot. For most of the last 12 months, Bridgewater was the guy and for that reason your target.

 

Now a few sources a month before draft day are saying Bridgewater may be slipping and you have jumped on it as gospel because they agree with you. A few months ago, when Clowney was failing to set the world alight, 'sources' were questioning him and you dismissed them.

 

As you say, the draft is very unpredictable. I for one am not comfortable making such confident assertions about what will and wont happen.

---

Just to be different, Bortles.

I don't know if this has been posted, but this is pretty funny. 

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-chang...r-opens-up

 

 

Love it.

---

Love it.

 

Yeah, that was awesome

---

If I understand correctly, we shouldn't care how the player ends up performing as long as we didn't "reach"
.

 

No, you don't understand.  That's not what was said.  Either you didn't understand it, or you purposefully misunderstood it.

---

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

The fact is, you've been humping Clowney's leg for over a year and have dismissed anyone who is not him as unworthy of being in the same discussion for top spot. For most of the last 12 months, Bridgewater was the guy and for that reason your target.

 

It's sad you're projecting so much.  Clowney never dropped out of the top spot as best player in the draft, even if he had come out last year.  Yes, some had prematurely put Ted on a pedestal (without good reason) along side him for a while.  But you can't look back on that now, even if you've fallen for him, and admit that was a bit silly.  He'll be lucky to be the first QB off the board, let alone the first pick.  Instead, even those expecting Bortles/Manziel to the Texans admit Clowney is the better selection.  Like was mentioned, teams fall in love with players sometimes.  It happens.  It would be a shock for Clowney to fall to three.  It would be equally shocking for Ted to come of the board in the first three.  I'm sorry if that upsets you.

---

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Its not the 11th hour. Still over 4 weeks to go.

 

The fact is, you've been humping Clowney's leg for over a year and have dismissed anyone who is not him as unworthy of being in the same discussion for top spot. For most of the last 12 months, Bridgewater was the guy and for that reason your target.

 

Now a few sources a month before draft day are saying Bridgewater may be slipping and you have jumped on it as gospel because they agree with you. A few months ago, when Clowney was failing to set the world alight, 'sources' were questioning him and you dismissed them.

 

As you say, the draft is very unpredictable. I for one am not comfortable making such confident assertions about what will and wont happen.

 

When EJ manuel goes top 20, you might as well stop trying to guess what will happen. 

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Its not the 11th hour. Still over 4 weeks to go.

 

The fact is, you've been humping Clowney's leg for over a year and have dismissed anyone who is not him as unworthy of being in the same discussion for top spot. For most of the last 12 months, Bridgewater was the guy and for that reason your target.

 

Now a few sources a month before draft day are saying Bridgewater may be slipping and you have jumped on it as gospel because they agree with you. A few months ago, when Clowney was failing to set the world alight, 'sources' were questioning him and you dismissed them.

 

As you say, the draft is very unpredictable. I for one am not comfortable making such confident assertions about what will and wont happen.

Bridgewater has spent most of the last 12 months as a top prospect and the top QB! Clowney has been called the top player right along, not sure where he was not discussed as the #1 prospect other than a few posters on here.

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When EJ manuel goes top 20, you might as well stop trying to guess what will happen. 

 

Not if your guess is an educated one (vs otherwise.)

 

This is the take of the best mock drafter in the business (before he stopped doing them):

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/columni...ollege.ece

<p style="margin-left:40px;"> 

<p style="margin-left:40px;">"But understand that the NFL draft is not about college production. It’s about a player’s measurables. It always has been and always will be. The NFL covets players who best fit the position prototypes, because having the ideal height, weight, strength and speed give them the best chance for success at the next level.

<p style="margin-left:40px;"> 

<p style="margin-left:40px;">...The NFL believes if a player has the measurables he can be coached to greatness."

 

That's why his were the best.  He didn't fall in love with players, and used common sense.

 

Manuel had those measurables.  Same goes for Bortles (but not all of his peers...)  And it's why Planet Theory favors Clowney.

---

"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."

Gabbert has measurables

---

If that RV sales place wants Tebow in Jax bad enough to take out a billboard saying as much.....they should just HIRE him.

It's sad you're projecting so much.  Clowney never dropped out of the top spot as best player in the draft, even if he had come out last year.  Yes, some had prematurely put Ted on a pedestal (without good reason) along side him for a while.  But you can't look back on that now, even if you've fallen for him, and admit that was a bit silly.  He'll be lucky to be the first QB off the board, let alone the first pick.  Instead, even those expecting Bortles/Manziel to the Texans admit Clowney is the better selection.  Like was mentioned, teams fall in love with players sometimes.  It happens.  It would be a shock for Clowney to fall to three.  It would be equally shocking for Ted to come of the board in the first three.  I'm sorry if that upsets you.

 

I'm not one of these 'OMGZ I know best and we must draft a QB in the first/trade up for Clowney' fan boys, I'll leave that for your ilk and your Michael Sam style love for your boy. But I'll say it again, because you're obviously incapable of the empathy required to understand someone elses opinions when they differ from your own (another crazy mutt trait) I like Bridewater, I'd be happy with him at 3 because in my limited opinion he can give us what we've not had since Brunell, but I'm not one of the lunatics who thinks his opinion means crap. I honestly find it funny when people talk like they know jack poop, its sad. Whats even funnier is when people project their own feelings onto people in charge based on opinion pieces from any swinging Richard who writes a column on the internet.

 

What the Texans or anyone says more than 3 weeks before the first pick is made is irrelevant, you know that don't you? What a 'source' says to a journalist 3 weeks before draft day is just as likely to be wrong as right. You keep telling yourself you know, I'm willing to be come draft day you'll get some surprises.

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Just to be different, Bortles.

If Bridgewater starts falling into the late first, I have to think Caldwell considers a move up.

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Agreed. 11 rookie draft picks aren't making the team.

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