As much as I agree with letting MJD go and I like adding Gerhart.. Caldwell still over-payed

If you go strictly by past performance sure, but the past performance is a function of him playing behind a great starter. Part of the contract assumes a certain degree of potential. If Gerhart goes for 1300+ yards rushing this year it'll look like a great investment.

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By now most of us are over the initial (somewhat shock) of the Jags signing Toby Gerhart to be their starting RB for next season, and letting MoJo walk, as we move on into the future with the current regime. 

 

Here's the thing,...if we were all paying attention better to our own management, we might have seen this one coming before it did. 

 

Look at Caldwell's history - 

 

What team did we get him from again?...Atlanta, correct? 

 

Well, pretty much this exact scenario played out in Atlanta several years back. Atlanta was in need of a workhorse RB, as their current crop of RB's at the time were aging/ not getting the job done. How did Atlanta address their issue? By signing Michael Turner, backup RB (to LaDanian Tomlinson) on the San Diego Chargers for his first 4 years, and was productive in his limited work, but largely unknown playing behind an established star RB. 

 

Caldwell apparently took a page from that book in how we went about filling our need for the RB position this offseason with the Gerhart deal. The only real difference being slight - Gerhart is a year older than Turner was at the time of his signing, but to offset that, Gerhart got only a 3 year deal which expires at the age of 30 for Gerhart, which IMO, was a smart decision by Caldwell. 

 

Otherwise, Gerhart and Turner are pretty similar in skill and the type of runners they are. Both bigger RB who move really quick for their size. This isn't the usual plodding 240 pound RB addition, 

 

For those worried about age - Turner was able to post 1300 yard seasons at age 28 & 29 (his 3rd and 4th seasons in Atlanta and that was after totaling over 1500 yards that first season as a starter with the club. During his first 4 years as a Falcon Turner averaged 4.5 YPC, which is similar to the kind of YPC Gerhart has shown thus far as a career average. I anticipate that like the Turner example showed, Gerhart has a lot of tread left on the tires despite the age of 27, due to a reduced workload in total carries, thus far in his career. 

 

Also overlooked here - is if Gerhart does indeed play out like Turner did - the 4 MIL per year we are paying Gerhart, will suddenly look cheap, relatively speaking. 

 

Looking back, its amazing few if any of us saw this coming, given Caldwell has proven at times to follow his Atlanta script, such as his hire of Bradley which is somewhat similar to the regime in Atlanta hiring Mike Smith. 

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Solid post, TMD.

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"Let us not become conceited, provoking and envying each other." Galatians 5:26

2015 NFL Draft - Analyzing Targets www.jungle.jaguars.com/index.php?/topic/7892-2015-nfl-draft-analyzing-targets/

Good analysis. Now lets look at Caldwell's history in regards to the QB position.. Will he go the same route? They did select Ryan 3rd overall.. 

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Shock the world

Good analysis. Now lets look at Caldwell's history in regards to the QB position.. Will he go the same route? They did select Ryan 3rd overall.. 

 

I've actually thought of that....and also Manning - as Caldwell also learned under that organization too. 

 

So, maybe expect the Jags to try to get a QB that perhaps has similarities to Ryan and Peyton (yes, easier said than done). 

 

Who might it be from this draft? Who is the closest to fit those molds or a morph of both? If anyone. 

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I noticed this as well TMD. You broke it down much more than I did though.


I see nothing in Dave's history that suggests he is ok waiting on a qb and hoping they pan out.


Also to the qb that fits the mold. It's teddy.

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It's a good move.  He has low mileage on him, unlike MJD.  However, like Turner, I'm sure he'll fall off pretty quickly once he gets a ton of carries.  I can see him being pretty productive for those 3 years and we probably let him walk after that.

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It's a good move.  He has low mileage on him, unlike MJD.  However, like Turner, I'm sure he'll fall off pretty quickly once he gets a ton of carries.  I can see him being pretty productive for those 3 years and we probably let him walk after that.

 

Yep, Turner fell off quickly at age 30.....not coincidentally why Caldwell gave Gerhart a 3 year deal that expires by the time he turns...........

 

 

wait for it.....

 

 

30. 

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Who's got the "icy-ness" of Matt = Manziel

Who's got the "read the defensey-ness" of Manning = Bridgewater

 

I don't see a prospect that equals both of them though. Good insight on OP! I doubt they are following the same/exact gameplan, but the similarities are definitely there and you take with you what you learn and see what works.

 

I'm still wanting us to take Manziel. Especially since we are playing Henne this year and possibly next. If we needed a starter today and for this year, I'd say probably Bridgewater or Bortles. But having a year or two for Manziel to learn the system in depth, get some experience on how fast the NFL truly is, he could be great!

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Let's Get Em!!!! Go Jags!

Who's got the "icy-ness" of Matt = Manziel

Who's got the "read the defensey-ness" of Manning = Bridewater

 

I don't see a prospect that equals both of them though. Good insight on OP! I doubt they are following the same/exact gameplan, but the similarities are definitely there and you take with you what you learn and see what works.

 

I'm still wanting us to take Manziel. Especially since we are playing Henne this year and possibly next. If we needed a started today and for this year, I'd say probably Bridgewater or Bortles. But having a year or two for Manziel to learn the system in depth, get some experience on how fast the NFL truly is, he could be great!

 

The only thing that could further complicate the type of QB Caldwell chooses is Bradley's influence, given he's was familiar with a QB like Russell Wilson. Perhaps Caldwell inherits some of that influence QB wise. The Jags under Caldwell haven't been shy to all things Seattle, as well. 

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We can only hope Gerhart pans out like Turner.. Ill guess will see. Good analysis too.

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I don't think that many people were surprised they chose another running back over MJD.

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I don't think that many people were surprised they chose another running back over MJD.

 

A lot of people were initially surprised at who they chose. And I also think there was a good amount that felt MoJo would be back. 

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I've actually thought of that....and also Manning - as Caldwell also learned under that organization too. 

 

So, maybe expect the Jags to try to get a QB that perhaps has similarities to Ryan and Peyton (yes, easier said than done). 

 

Who might it be from this draft? Who is the closest to fit those molds or a morph of both? If anyone. 

 

I would say the closest to Ryan would be Bridgewater.

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Shock the world

I would say the closest to Ryan would be Bridgewater.

 

As the type of QB, no doubt at all. 

 

The size? Notsomuch. 

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As the type of QB, no doubt at all. 

 

The size? Notsomuch. 

 

The size is similar. Im not really concerned about the size. If a QB is good at protecting his body he will be better off. EJ Manuel has the size, but missed half the year because he simply did not run out of bounds. However, Russell Wilson has not missed a game in 2 years because he is smart with it.

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Shock the world

Does this mean we get our Matt Ryan at 3? Didn't the Falcons take Ryan at 3 haha. 

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Nice to see a good post for TMD

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By now most of us are over the initial (somewhat shock) of the Jags signing Toby Gerhart to be their starting RB for next season, and letting MoJo walk, as we move on into the future with the current regime. 

 

Here's the thing,...if we were all paying attention better to our own management, we might have seen this one coming before it did. 

 

Look at Caldwell's history - 

 

What team did we get him from again?...Atlanta, correct? 

 

Well, pretty much this exact scenario played out in Atlanta several years back. Atlanta was in need of a workhorse RB, as their current crop of RB's at the time were aging/ not getting the job done. How did Atlanta address their issue? By signing Michael Turner, backup RB (to LaDanian Tomlinson) on the San Diego Chargers for his first 4 years, and was productive in his limited work, but largely unknown playing behind an established star RB. 

 

Caldwell apparently took a page from that book in how we went about filling our need for the RB position this offseason with the Gerhart deal. The only real difference being slight - Gerhart is a year older than Turner was at the time of his signing, but to offset that, Gerhart got only a 3 year deal which expires at the age of 30 for Gerhart, which IMO, was a smart decision by Caldwell. 

 

Otherwise, Gerhart and Turner are pretty similar in skill and the type of runners they are. Both bigger RB who move really quick for their size. This isn't the usual plodding 240 pound RB addition, 

 

For those worried about age - Turner was able to post 1300 yard seasons at age 28 & 29 (his 3rd and 4th seasons in Atlanta and that was after totaling over 1500 yards that first season as a starter with the club. During his first 4 years as a Falcon Turner averaged 4.5 YPC, which is similar to the kind of YPC Gerhart has shown thus far as a career average. I anticipate that like the Turner example showed, Gerhart has a lot of tread left on the tires despite the age of 27, due to a reduced workload in total carries, thus far in his career. 

 

Also overlooked here - is if Gerhart does indeed play out like Turner did - the 4 MIL per year we are paying Gerhart, will suddenly look cheap, relatively speaking. 

 

Looking back, its amazing few if any of us saw this coming, given Caldwell has proven at times to follow his Atlanta script, such as his hire of Bradley which is somewhat similar to the regime in Atlanta hiring Mike Smith. 

 

I think you are overplaying the shocked that he let MJD go angle. I don't  think many (most?) of us were surprised. That's not to say that many of us wouldn't have been pleased if Mojo remained (I'd be ok with it), but most of us know how  the NFL is trending regarding running backs, especially regarding age and number of carries.

 

Your history lesson is instructive though - Caldwell has no ties to Jaguars history is is not likely to let sentiment get in the way of common sense.

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The sun's not yellow, it's chicken.

Hmmmm ill take 1.2 mill Mojo ova 4 mill Gerhart all day everyday..Ijs.. and playing behind a bad o-line isnt worn down..

 

 i totally agree.....and i also think MoJo should have retired as a Jag. just MY opinion. I dont like the TG signing.....but that wont be what kills Caldwell...this draft and this #3 overall pick will make or break him. Guess we will see in 2017.

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