All I know is that DeAndre Hopkins only played 10 games last season and the only other WR the Cardinals had to really compete with Kirk for catches was an old, broke down, shell of what he used to be in A.J. Green. Kirk had a perfect opportunity to step up and prove that he could be "the guy" in that offense and he couldn't do it. He wasn't terrible, but he wasn't good either. He just is what he is, an average slot receiver. He's not a difference maker. If he was, he would've shown that last season when he was supposed to be the main receiver for half the season and instead he only managed a hundred yards and change more than A.J. Green, who played 1 less game and is so bad, he's still a free agent, because everyone knows his tank is empty. Kirk may very well be an upgrade, but it's not enough of an upgrade to even move the needle. 

I agree that Engram should play a large role in the offense. I'm not a huge fan of Arnold though. He had a lot of drops and fumbles in the short time he played with us. Take that into account along with the fact that Engram has only had one season where he played a full schedule (2020) and he's only on a 1 year deal. We need help at TE. 

As far as Zay Jones, I don't care how fast he is. His speed has never translated into consistency. His career high is is a measly 652 yards receiving and that was back in 2018. That tells me he can't get open. As far as why he can't get open, I don't know. I've never paid that much attention to him, because he's been such a non-factor as an NFL receiver. He's played with 2 pretty good QB's in Allen and Carr, so he can't use having bad QB's as am excuse. 

I have no clue how anyone could call what we have now, "middle of the road" WR's. This is the 2nd worst group in the NFL after Atlanta. We don't even have RB's to rely on since Robinson will most likely miss time coming off ACL surgery and Etienne may never be the same after Lisfranc surgery. I'm just being a realist.

You like to draw false conclusions by making assumptions after "analyzing" an insufficient amount of statistical data. 
There are many variables left conveniently out of your explanations of why you have no faith in either receiver. 

The tape on Kirk and Jones refutes your doom-&-gloom bluster.

The 4 photos below taken at the moment Jones is receiving the ball illustrate how open he is on 80% of the targets on his 2021 tape. You should watch the cut-up sometime and educate yourself on the player. 

I can cherry pick plays from highlights reels which would appear to show Laquon Treadwell getting open too, if I tried hard enough. This proves nothing. If Jones gets open so much, why has he been 4th string and 3rd string most of his career? Why is his season high just 652 yards receiving, all the way back in 2018? You can't dispute facts with some cherry picked videos.

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You like to draw false conclusions by making assumptions after "analyzing" an insufficient amount of statistical data. 
There are many variables left conveniently out of your explanations of why you have no faith in either receiver. 

The tape on Kirk and Jones refutes your doom-&-gloom bluster.

The 4 photos below taken at the moment Jones is receiving the ball illustrate how open he is on 80% of the targets on his 2021 tape. You should watch the cut-up sometime and educate yourself on the player. 

I can cherry pick plays from highlights reels which would appear to show Laquon Treadwell getting open too, if I tried hard enough. This proves nothing. If Jones gets open so much, why has he been 4th string and 3rd string most of his career? Why is his season high just 652 yards receiving, all the way back in 2018? You can't dispute facts with some cherry picked videos.

It proves you haven't watched him play. 

These stills are literally 4 of the first seven catches from his every target cut-up in 2021. 80% of his catches show this type of clear separation.  

I'm not disputing facts. I'm telling you that you are very uninformed and incredibly assumptive when you post things like "this stat plus this stat tells me Jones can't get open."  He gets open A LOT. 


HERE ARE SOME MORE CHERRY-PICKED CATCHES
I can do this all day if you want - I'm only 2/3 through last year's targets with these screen caps - these are all complete and they all moved the chains - plenty more for me to "cherry-pick" or are you seeing a trend yet? 

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I can cherry pick plays from highlights reels which would appear to show Laquon Treadwell getting open too, if I tried hard enough. This proves nothing. If Jones gets open so much, why has he been 4th string and 3rd string most of his career? Why is his season high just 652 yards receiving, all the way back in 2018? You can't dispute facts with some cherry picked videos.

It proves you haven't watched him play. 

These stills are literally 4 of the first seven catches from his every target cut-up in 2021. 80% of his catches show this type of clear separation.  

I'm not disputing facts. I'm telling you that you are very uninformed and incredibly assumptive when you post things like "this stat plus this stat tells me Jones can't get open."  He gets open A LOT. 


HERE ARE SOME MORE CHERRY-PICKED CATCHES
I can do this all day if you want - I'm only 2/3 through last year's targets with these screen caps - these are all complete and they all moved the chains - plenty more for me to "cherry-pick" or are you seeing a trend yet? 

I'm not gonna lie to you and tell you I watched a lot of Buffalo and Raiders' games where I focused in on Zay Jones. I didn't. I can say that I saw probably 4 Raiders games last season, because there are a limited number of west coast teams with 4:00 p.m. start times and the Raiders were on the CBS late game a lot in my area last year. In those games, Jones was a complete non-factor. If you're trying to convince me that he gets open a lot during his NFL career, you're basically saying his QB's (Allen and Carr) are responsible for his lack of production. I find that extremely hard to believe. Allen is an elite QB and Carr is one of the better QB's in the NFL.

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It proves you haven't watched him play. 

These stills are literally 4 of the first seven catches from his every target cut-up in 2021. 80% of his catches show this type of clear separation.  

I'm not disputing facts. I'm telling you that you are very uninformed and incredibly assumptive when you post things like "this stat plus this stat tells me Jones can't get open."  He gets open A LOT. 


HERE ARE SOME MORE CHERRY-PICKED CATCHES
I can do this all day if you want - I'm only 2/3 through last year's targets with these screen caps - these are all complete and they all moved the chains - plenty more for me to "cherry-pick" or are you seeing a trend yet? 

I'm not gonna lie to you and tell you I watched a lot of Buffalo and Raiders' games where I focused in on Zay Jones. I didn't. I can say that I saw probably 4 Raiders games last season, because there are a limited number of west coast teams with 4:00 p.m. start times and the Raiders were on the CBS late game a lot in my area last year. In those games, Jones was a complete non-factor. If you're trying to convince me that he gets open a lot during his NFL career, you're basically saying his QB's (Allen and Carr) are responsible for his lack of production. I find that extremely hard to believe. Allen is an elite QB and Carr is one of the better QB's in the NFL.

The bolded is yet another example of you confusing correlation with causation. 

Can you seriously think of no other reasons under the sun that an "open"  receiver's stat line could be middling besides it being all on the QB? Really? 

I am not "basically saying Carr and Allen are responsible for his lack of production" as you suggest. 
 That is your poorly formed conclusion. 

Now, in 2021 - which is THE ONLY season I've used to support my refusal of your "doesn't get open" assertion - many of the incomplete pass attempts targeting Zay Jones were in fact due to Derek Carr's inaccuracy.

Since I'm pointing out the difference between causation and correlation here, I'll go on to explain that while some of them were flat out terrible passes, others were born from undue QB pressure, some of the routes continued too deep for Derek Carr to reach on while rolling away from pressure, and others were simply well-defended.

Yet another reason Jones didn't see a lot of statistical production last year is the number of targets he had in that scheme short of the sticks or even short of the line of scrimmage. He was good at getting positive yardage when called upon to be the check-down or screen target, but being the recipient of enough of these types of targets also diminishes your season stat-line. 
 
The point I've been laboriously making and will now let die a welcome death is that - if you watch the cut-up of his targets -  Jones is overwhelmingly open on the majority of them. Regardless of outcome. 

Feel free to ignore this basic fact if you so choose. I'll move on.

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I'm not gonna lie to you and tell you I watched a lot of Buffalo and Raiders' games where I focused in on Zay Jones. I didn't. I can say that I saw probably 4 Raiders games last season, because there are a limited number of west coast teams with 4:00 p.m. start times and the Raiders were on the CBS late game a lot in my area last year. In those games, Jones was a complete non-factor. If you're trying to convince me that he gets open a lot during his NFL career, you're basically saying his QB's (Allen and Carr) are responsible for his lack of production. I find that extremely hard to believe. Allen is an elite QB and Carr is one of the better QB's in the NFL.

The bolded is yet another example of you confusing correlation with causation. 

Can you seriously think of no other reasons under the sun that an "open"  receiver's stat line could be middling besides it being all on the QB? Really? 

I am not "basically saying Carr and Allen are responsible for his lack of production" as you suggest. 
 That is your poorly formed conclusion. 

Now, in 2021 - which is THE ONLY season I've used to support my refusal of your "doesn't get open" assertion - many of the incomplete pass attempts targeting Zay Jones were in fact due to Derek Carr's inaccuracy.

Since I'm pointing out the difference between causation and correlation here, I'll go on to explain that while some of them were flat out terrible passes, others were born from undue QB pressure, some of the routes continued too deep for Derek Carr to reach on while rolling away from pressure, and others were simply well-defended.

Yet another reason Jones didn't see a lot of statistical production last year is the number of targets he had in that scheme short of the sticks or even short of the line of scrimmage. He was good at getting positive yardage when called upon to be the check-down or screen target, but being the recipient of enough of these types of targets also diminishes your season stat-line. 
 
The point I've been laboriously making and will now let die a welcome death is that - if you watch the cut-up of his targets -  Jones is overwhelmingly open on the majority of them. Regardless of outcome. 

Feel free to ignore this basic fact if you so choose. I'll move on.

I'm willing to let it go too. The only way I will change my mind about Zay Jones is for him to prove it on the field and I sincerely hope he does. I really don't want another "bust" on this team. If he plays well I will gladly cop to my own mis-judgement. I'd love to "eat crow" on this one, but I just don't see it happening. In any case, onto the next subject.

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It proves you haven't watched him play. 

These stills are literally 4 of the first seven catches from his every target cut-up in 2021. 80% of his catches show this type of clear separation.  

I'm not disputing facts. I'm telling you that you are very uninformed and incredibly assumptive when you post things like "this stat plus this stat tells me Jones can't get open."  He gets open A LOT. 


HERE ARE SOME MORE CHERRY-PICKED CATCHES
I can do this all day if you want - I'm only 2/3 through last year's targets with these screen caps - these are all complete and they all moved the chains - plenty more for me to "cherry-pick" or are you seeing a trend yet? 

I'm not gonna lie to you and tell you I watched a lot of Buffalo and Raiders' games where I focused in on Zay Jones. I didn't. I can say that I saw probably 4 Raiders games last season, because there are a limited number of west coast teams with 4:00 p.m. start times and the Raiders were on the CBS late game a lot in my area last year. In those games, Jones was a complete non-factor. If you're trying to convince me that he gets open a lot during his NFL career, you're basically saying his QB's (Allen and Carr) are responsible for his lack of production. I find that extremely hard to believe. Allen is an elite QB and Carr is one of the better QB's in the NFL.

Jones was with Buffalo for a little over 2 years.  One was pre-Allen, and the other year + 5 games were with Allen when he was pretty bad.  He never played with elite QB Allen.

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Here's another stab at calling a shot in this draft:

Jags trade with jets or giants - swap 1st rounders this year and pick up this years 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.
Jags end up getting bit less than they should in return and the Baalke hate rages on.
Baalke is thrilled because he escapes #1 in a dubious draft for that position - but can't win for losing.

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Here's another stab at calling a shot in this draft:

Jags trade with jets or giants - swap 1st rounders this year and pick up this years 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.
Jags end up getting bit less than they should in return and the Baalke hate rages on.
Baalke is thrilled because he escapes #1 in a dubious draft for that position - but can't win for losing.

Would we be getting both of the Giants or Jets first rounders in return or just one of them?

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Here's another stab at calling a shot in this draft:

Jags trade with jets or giants - swap 1st rounders this year and pick up this years 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.
Jags end up getting bit less than they should in return and the Baalke hate rages on.
Baalke is thrilled because he escapes #1 in a dubious draft for that position - but can't win for losing.

Would we be getting both of the Giants or Jets first rounders in return or just one of them?

For the scenario I was imagining it would be either 4 or 5 overall. Just one.

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Would we be getting both of the Giants or Jets first rounders in return or just one of them?

For the scenario I was imagining it would be either 4 or 5 overall. Just one.

If we went to #4 or #5, it would be between "Sauce" Gardner and Jameson Williams for me, depending on if Gardner was still on the board. Ideally, I'd like to trade back again a few picks.

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Here's another stab at calling a shot in this draft:

Jags trade with jets or giants - swap 1st rounders this year and pick up this years 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.
Jags end up getting bit less than they should in return and the Baalke hate rages on.
Baalke is thrilled because he escapes #1 in a dubious draft for that position - but can't win for losing.

this sounds exceedingly plausible.

(and I wouldn't fault him for it)

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Here's another stab at calling a shot in this draft:

Jags trade with jets or giants - swap 1st rounders this year and pick up this years 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.
Jags end up getting bit less than they should in return and the Baalke hate rages on.
Baalke is thrilled because he escapes #1 in a dubious draft for that position - but can't win for losing.

Would we be getting both of the Giants or Jets first rounders in return or just one of them?

"swap" doesn't imply more than one-for-one.

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Jags go defense with  first two picks. Hutch and a linebacker.

Man so close.

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Jags go defense with  first two picks. Hutch and a linebacker.

Man so close.

Good call on the line backer. Now what's going to happen on day 2?

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Man so close.

Good call on the line backer. Now what's going to happen on day 2?

Boy, hard to predict day 2, since there are so many potential needs, but I would bet guard and wide receiver.

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Day 2 would make me happy if we either:

Trade up to grab Pickens.
or
Metchie falls to us at 65 or 70.

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Good call on the line backer. Now what's going to happen on day 2?

Boy, hard to predict day 2, since there are so many potential needs, but I would bet guard and wide receiver.

Exactly. I hope we can get 1 good one of each.

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No guard or wr. We got a center though.
Let's see what happens day 3

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Yeah surprised still no WR, but I guess the value at linebacker was too good to pass for need

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I went through the messages and found 29 clear predictions.  7 predictions turned out to be right, 21 were wrong and 1 was prefaced with an “if” scenario that didn’t happen so I considered it neither right nor wrong.  Below are the correct predictions.  I am paraphrasing them.

Two predictions were essentially the same regarding not taking a wide receiver early:

• ATLJag – Jags don’t draft a WR in the first 3 rounds.
  

• Dimson – Jags don’t draft a WR in the first 3 rounds.
  

Two predictions involved trading the #33 pick:

• Sufron – Jags trade pick 33 (either up or down). 
  

• Mikey – If the Jags stay put at 1, a trade up from 33 into the first round won’t be for a WR. 
  

Three miscellaneous predictions:

• Caldrac – Evan Neal falls out of the top 5. 
  

• Mikey – DK Metcalf doesn’t get traded on draft night.
  

• TheDuke – Jags don’t draft a safety throughout the entire draft.
  

Which correct prediction do you think was the boldest?

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Here are the incorrect predictions.  I am going to number them, but that is to make it easier to reference when we discuss them.  They are simply listed in the order of being submitted.  Again, some are paraphrased.  I’ve put comments in brackets following them.

1. Upper – Tyler Linderbaum is available at #33, and the Jags don’t take him.  [He was drafted at #25 and unavailable at #33.]

2. OLM – Kyle Hamilton slides all the way to Washington at pick #11.  [I debated whether this one was right or wrong.  Hamilton slides to #14, but I interpret the prediction is that Hamilton’s slide stops with Washington at #11.  His mock draft supports this interpretation.] 

3. Marty – There will be no quarterbacks taken in the first round.  [A quarterback was taken in the first round at #20.]

4. NYC4Jags – Jags take 5 players in rounds 1-3 via trade up.  [Only 4 players were taken.]

5. Cleatwood – Jameson Williams is the first WR off the board.  [He was the fourth wide receiver off the board.]

6. Enigma – Jags take Kayvon Thibodeaux at #1.  [The Jags took Walker.  Thibodeaux went #5 to the Giants.]

7. Caldrac – Jags trade back with Detroit or Washington on day 1.  [No trade.]

8. Caldrac – 14 wide receivers are selected in the first two rounds.  [Close, but no cigar.  Only 13.]

9. Caldrac – Arizona drafts a player or trades the 23rd pick revolving around the QB position.  [Arizona does trade the pick, but for a WR.]

10. Caldrac – Jelani Woods will be the first TE drafted (most likely in round 2).  [Trey McBride was drafted first.  Woods also wasn’t drafted until round 3.]

11. Mikey – If GB doesn’t get a WR in round one, A. A. Ron retires on Friday.  [No retirement.]

12. StayaJag – Jags will draft Hutch.  [The Jags drafted Walker.]

13. ChrisJagBoy – Evan Neal falls to round 2.  [Neal went #7 overall.]

14. Flgatorsandjags – Jags pick 2 players in the 2nd round.  [The Jags picked zero players in the 2nd round.]

15. AlsJagsFan – Jags will trade the first pick.  [No trade.]

16. Jaglou53 – Jags won’t take a receiver until round 3 or 4. [No receiver was taken in rounds 3 or 4.]

17. IronTrooper83 – Jags won’t select a WR until day 3.  [No WR was taken on day 3.]

18. IamYoda – Carolina takes a QB at #6.  [Carolina took an offensive lineman at #6.]

19. IamYoda – Jags do not draft an offensive weapon until day 3.  [I debated this one, but I don’t think a power running back was the intent of “offensive weapon”.  I consider no offensive weapons to have been drafted on day 3.]

20. Newton – Jags go defense with the first two picks (Hutch and a linebacker).  [Good call on the linebacker, but they took Walker instead of Hutch.]

21. NYC4jags – Jags trade their #1 pick with the Jets or Giants for this year’s 67th or 69th plus a 2nd rounder next year.  [No trade.]

Which prediction do you feel was the most wrong?

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