Let's say we are on the clock at #24

The Jags top rated available players in order of the grades our F.O. and staff have given them are:

WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jordan Addison
TE - Dalton Kincaid
OT - Darnell Wright
DT - Calijah Kancey

Those are your best grades available at #24 in order ^

Who should the Jaguars draft?

As ever i bend the knee to those with a more in depth knowledge of the prospects than I... But from everything I've read and digested Wright would be the fella I'd like in the first round... Or to give the FO some leeway whoever their top right tackle is!

I'd even go further and say if he's there when the commanders are on the clock and he's the last of the better tackles remaining id be happy to take the gamble and see if we could make a wee move up if the price was right! Unfortunately I'm not sure I see that scenario panning out, if I was guessing I'd predict a CB...

For those gamblers amongst us you can pick up 50/1 on the jags first rounder being a safety as well over here ... Hellish fine odds if you happen to be a Brian Branch fan!!

I would also take the OT in this scenario. It's the right value for our team at that pick. Despite bypassing higher graded players to choose him. 

Though someone will stop by soon to tell us this is incorrect because it would be "pushing need up the board."

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Yeah... I've laboured my feelings at length on another thread so I won't do so again here but I just couldn't see a better scenario than Wright being on the board at 24 ... Position of need, position of huge value, possibly upgrades two positions for one pick and gives you huge roster flexibility down the line! And that's before you get to the desperate need to keep Lawrence upright!

It'd be a race between me and Caldrac to get the card in first!

If we got him without a trade up you've also carte blanche to take another O lineman somewhere in the first four rounds ... Which I certainly wouldn't be averse to either.

On the other four on your list Kincaid and Kancey seem very very good prospects but, and this is purely a personal opinion, I just can't envision a scenario where we wind up taking either in the first (Too much tight end depth available later in the draft, and Kanceys almost certainly not there in the second) 

And beyond something utterly out of the ordinary happening, wide receiver in this draft isn't for me until you get to the moonshot boys in the ninth innings!

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Yeah... I've laboured my feelings at length on another thread so I won't do so again here but I just couldn't see a better scenario than Wright being on the board at 24 ... Position of need, position of huge value, possibly upgrades two positions for one pick and gives you huge roster flexibility down the line! And that's before you get to the desperate need to keep Lawrence upright!

It'd be a race between me and Caldrac to get the card in first!

If we got him without a trade up you've also carte blanche to take another O lineman somewhere in the first four rounds ... Which I certainly wouldn't be averse to either.

On the other four on your list Kincaid and Kancey seem very very good prospects but, and this is purely a personal opinion, I just can't envision a scenario where we wind up taking either in the first (Too much tight end depth available later in the draft, and Kanceys almost certainly not there in the second) 

And beyond something utterly out of the ordinary happening, wide receiver in this draft isn't for me until you get to the moonshot boys in the ninth innings!

I'll be right there at the podium with you and Caldrac turning in Wright's name. I do like Kincaid a lot, but Wright would clearly be the better choice.

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Back on topic.

A few national reporters are saying Van Ness to the Jags. I'm intrigued

gotta say I'm a bit weirded out by taking yet another pass rush guy in the first. Does that mean we are moving on from Allen? Giving up on Walker? Using a first to replace Arden Key?

I trust the process, but it's not a position that will wow me if that's the pick.

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Oh i understand.   He literally said the same thing that's been said.  Rare occasion do you take a lesser rated player.  What the few needs drafters on here do is far from what Baalke is talking about.

Let's say we are on the clock at #24

The Jags top rated available players in order of the grades our F.O. and staff have given them are:

WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jordan Addison
TE - Dalton Kincaid
OT - Darnell Wright
DT - Calijah Kancey

Those are your best grades available at #24 in order ^

Who should the Jaguars draft?

I'd probably say Kincaid out of those 5, but I'd also entertain most any reasonable offer to move off the pick. Kincaid gives us options w/r/t Engram's deal, and we're going to need some affordable weapons around TLaw as his bill comes due. WR is all but off my board entirely, we are as close to full as we can be roster-wise.

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Back on topic.

A few national reporters are saying Van Ness to the Jags. I'm intrigued

gotta say I'm a bit weirded out by taking yet another pass rush guy in the first. Does that mean we are moving on from Allen? Giving up on Walker? Using a first to replace Arden Key?

I trust the process, but it's not a position that will wow me if that's the pick.

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Let's say we are on the clock at #24

The Jags top rated available players in order of the grades our F.O. and staff have given them are:

WR - Zay Flowers
WR - Jordan Addison
TE - Dalton Kincaid
OT - Darnell Wright
DT - Calijah Kancey

Those are your best grades available at #24 in order ^

Who should the Jaguars draft?

I'd probably say Kincaid out of those 5, but I'd also entertain most any reasonable offer to move off the pick. Kincaid gives us options w/r/t Engram's deal, and we're going to need some affordable weapons around TLaw as his bill comes due. WR is all but off my board entirely, we are as close to full as we can be roster-wise.

Losing Smoot and Key adds up to a really big number of snaps to replace.
Depending on who falls or doesn't fall - expect a vet signing after the draft as well
Adding talent gives the team leverage in a negotiation with Allen should they seek to retain
They fully expect Walker to develop
You can't really have enough of these guys
Walker will likely play more snaps inside this year

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Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

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Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

Torrence.  The only thing standing in the way of having an overwhelming offense is our underwhelming offensive line.  

But I wouldn't be mad if we took one of the others.

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Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

Van Ness from this group.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

Branch is the odd man out here for me.

I likely lean Van Ness because of how depleted the DLine got with departures from Key and Smoot. However, wouldn't be mad at Torrence at all. Plug and play day 1.

I was also listening to this round table and they brought up some great points about the future of this offense when the Jags have to pay Trevor.

https://twitter.com/1010XL/status/165120...70368?s=20

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Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

Branch is the odd man out here for me.

I likely lean Van Ness because of how depleted the DLine got with departures from Key and Smoot. However, wouldn't be mad at Torrence at all. Plug and play day 1.

I was also listening to this round table and they brought up some great points about the future of this offense when the Jags have to pay Trevor.

https://twitter.com/1010XL/status/165120...70368?s=20

I don't like Torrence. Doesn't offer versatility to the line and he has questionable footwork. Probably not a good fit for this offensive scheme in the long run. If Darnell Wright was here? I would probably take him instead of Van Ness. Dempsey has me warming up to Oklahoma's Anton Harrison as well.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Hypothetically, Branch, Torrence and Van Ness are available at 25. Who do you take?

Van Ness.

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Branch is the odd man out here for me.

I likely lean Van Ness because of how depleted the DLine got with departures from Key and Smoot. However, wouldn't be mad at Torrence at all. Plug and play day 1.

I was also listening to this round table and they brought up some great points about the future of this offense when the Jags have to pay Trevor.

https://twitter.com/1010XL/status/165120...70368?s=20

I don't like Torrence. Doesn't offer versatility to the line and he has questionable footwork. Probably not a good fit for this offensive scheme in the long run. If Darnell Wright was here? I would probably take him instead of Van Ness. Dempsey has me warming up to Oklahoma's Anton Harrison as well.

What would you do with the line if Wright was the pick? Put him at RT and move Little to LG? Or the opposite of that? Wright has mainly played on the right side hasn’t he?

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I don't like Torrence. Doesn't offer versatility to the line and he has questionable footwork. Probably not a good fit for this offensive scheme in the long run. If Darnell Wright was here? I would probably take him instead of Van Ness. Dempsey has me warming up to Oklahoma's Anton Harrison as well.

What would you do with the line if Wright was the pick? Put him at RT and move Little to LG? Or the opposite of that? Wright has mainly played on the right side hasn’t he?

I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

What would you do with the line if Wright was the pick? Put him at RT and move Little to LG? Or the opposite of that? Wright has mainly played on the right side hasn’t he?

I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

You have a better chance of being on the Jags roster in 2024 than Robinson. He's gone after this year.

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What would you do with the line if Wright was the pick? Put him at RT and move Little to LG? Or the opposite of that? Wright has mainly played on the right side hasn’t he?

I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

You have a better chance of being on the Jags roster in 2024 than Robinson. He's gone after this year.

Just curious is this your opinions regardless of his salary? Because if he plays like a middling, about league average tackle, can't the Jags just work with him to cut up the deal in 24 off season and sign him to a cheaper deal instead of just cutting him for the dead cap hit?

It's not like good to great tackles "just spring out of holes in the ground", and reasonable depth is always important for the line.

Plus ideally, that is the peak of the current contending window. Trusting a new FA/rookie may not always turn out for the best.

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I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

You have a better chance of being on the Jags roster in 2024 than Robinson. He's gone after this year.

Just curious is this your opinions regardless of his salary? Because if he plays like a middling, about league average tackle, can't the Jags just work with him to cut up the deal in 24 off season and sign him to a cheaper deal instead of just cutting him for the dead cap hit?

It's not like good to great tackles "just spring out of holes in the ground", and reasonable depth is always important for the line.

Plus ideally, that is the peak of the current contending window. Trusting a new FA/rookie may not always turn out for the best.

Robinson almost cost us Lawrence last year. If you go back and look at that Detroit game. He's the blocker that blew it and got Lawrence in that awkward tackle that messed up his toe on his planting foot for the rest of the year. 

If we were not cap strapped with his contract? We probably had a chance to bring back JaWaan Taylor this off season. I wouldn't be against bringing him back. As long as the price is fair and he's not getting our QB hurt anymore. 

He's really bad technique wise though. Uche Nwaneri hammers him in this video below. FYI, Uche drops a ton of F bombs. Right off the bat he calls him a [BLEEP] bum.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPnUSX_LXrA

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

I force Robinson and Little to duke it out for LT and Wright is my automatic starter at RT as a rookie. Loser of the LT battle goes to LG or reverts back to swing tackle duties. 

Robinson won't be here after 2023. I wouldn't count on it. Unless he comes out and plays like the LT he was paid to be. Which I just don't see it in him. His technique is dog [BLEEP] and his durability is just as bad dog [BLEEP] wise.

You have a better chance of being on the Jags roster in 2024 than Robinson. He's gone after this year.

Just curious is this your opinions regardless of his salary? Because if he plays like a middling, about league average tackle, can't the Jags just work with him to cut up the deal in 24 off season and sign him to a cheaper deal instead of just cutting him for the dead cap hit?

It's not like good to great tackles "just spring out of holes in the ground", and reasonable depth is always important for the line.

Plus ideally, that is the peak of the current contending window. Trusting a new FA/rookie may not always turn out for the best.

On Robinson being here next year just depends on how he plays this year.  If he has a good season he will be here in 2024.  It's like a contract year for him

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Just curious is this your opinions regardless of his salary? Because if he plays like a middling, about league average tackle, can't the Jags just work with him to cut up the deal in 24 off season and sign him to a cheaper deal instead of just cutting him for the dead cap hit?

It's not like good to great tackles "just spring out of holes in the ground", and reasonable depth is always important for the line.

Plus ideally, that is the peak of the current contending window. Trusting a new FA/rookie may not always turn out for the best.

On Robinson being here next year just depends on how he plays this year.  If he has a good season he will be here in 2024.  It's like a contract year for him

If he plays anything like this in the below video? He shouldn't be the starting LT this year. He shouldn't really make it through preseason if he plays this piss poorly again. I don't care what his contract say nor what his cap percentage says. If this kind of technique and poor play is putting our franchise QB at risk? He needs to be benched or moved to a position along the line that he can handle better. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPnUSX_LXrA

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"What do I know of cultured ways, the gilt, the craft and the lie? I, who was born in a naked land and bred in the open sky. The subtle tongue, the sophist guile, they fail when the broadswords sing; Rush in and die, dogs - I was a man before I was a king."

Branch is the odd man out here for me.

I likely lean Van Ness because of how depleted the DLine got with departures from Key and Smoot. However, wouldn't be mad at Torrence at all. Plug and play day 1.

I was also listening to this round table and they brought up some great points about the future of this offense when the Jags have to pay Trevor.

https://twitter.com/1010XL/status/165120...70368?s=20

I don't like Torrence. Doesn't offer versatility to the line and he has questionable footwork. Probably not a good fit for this offensive scheme in the long run. If Darnell Wright was here? I would probably take him instead of Van Ness. Dempsey has me warming up to Oklahoma's Anton Harrison as well.

The odds are pretty good that both Van Ness and Wright will be off the board. If both Porter and Banks are also gone as well as the top 4 Offensive linemen (Johnson, Skoronski, Jones and Wright) the Jaguars will likely have to decide between Branch or Anton Harrison if they can't trade back. Hays Carlyon's predicted today that they's take Dawand Jones since Baalke loves the big guys. I hope he is wrong because I see Jones' career following the same path as Mekhi Becton, another behemoth whose size has resulted in injuries with the Jets. In this scenario, it would be a tough choice between Harrison and Branch. Harrison can play right tackle, but is more suited to play on the left side due to his excellence in pass protection. He also needs to get stronger, but that shouldn't be a big problem once he receives an adequate amount of strength training from the conditioning coach. We've already discussed Branch ad-nauseam and it's safe to say he'd be a very safe pick, but definitely not a home-run due to lack of speed to play outside corner. 

This would be the worst possible scenario if the Jaguars can't trade back. I'd probably lean towards Harrison since good left tackles don't grow on trees and the Jaguars can still find a good nickel in rounds 2 or 3. None of the other pass rushers (White, Uzomah, Foskey, Ojulari, McDonald) excite me enough to take in round 1 so Harrison would likely be the pick. Thoughts?

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Thing is, I don't know of many here (other than one) that is black and white need or value and never the twain shall meet. Most of us have been arguing that like Baalke, the aim is to find where need and value overlap. It's extremely rare that a GM is going to lean entirely toward need or entirely toward value. Those are the GMs that are going to be in trouble if their picks miss or their trades end up lopsided against them.

Are you saying that it is rare that a GM darfts where the value aligns with a position of need? Because to me that is the exact opposite of what Baalke suggested above.

Hell no.  I did not say that!  How in the world did you get that from what I wrote?  Re-read what I said.  I said, according to Baalke, it is rare that a GM has to make a choice between need and value.  

So, when we argue about need vs BPA, we are arguing about a situation that is rare, at least according to Baalke.  So if you believe him, and I have no reason not to, we should probably dispense with these arguments about "need vs BPA."  It just doesn't happen often enough to worry about it.

I think Baalke is confirming the "needs" position.  BAP people believe that you always take the player rated as BAP regardless of need.  Baalke said that it is very rare that he doesn't draft a need.  What are the odds that the BAP and the biggest need are the same with pick after pick after pick after pick?  Baalke saying that he rarely has to make a choice is clearly because he's willing to bypass the BAP for a need if it is close.  That's the argument of the needs people on here.

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