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Caldwell done?


(03-28-2018, 04:17 PM)MalabarJag Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 11:47 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: That's not an observation. It's an opinion. You are basically saying that no other coach the Jags were considering outside of Marrone could have taken this talented roster to the post-season. Which is quite a stretch in reasoning. 

Marrone didn't bail anyone out.  He jumped at the chance to be one of 32 head coaches in the NFL -  with a team and organization he was familiar with to boot. It so happens that Caldwell and Kahn (and to a lesser degree Coughlin) were wise to appoint him.  I fail to see any luck in the equation. 

It's been pretty well documented that the Bradley hire and retention were joint decisions in which the owner and his son had stake in. Caldwell is not free from blame, but we don't know the dynamics of those decisions and how much sway Caldwell ultimately held.

I don't know if it has been documented.

However, keeping Bradley after 2015 makes no sense at all unless there was an agreement that Bradley would get a full four years. That's something that makes logical sense considering the disaster of a roster the Jags had in 2013. If that's the case, and I believe it had to be, then Caldwell and/or Khan simply took the honorable path in keeping Bradley.
Yeah, for all the fault to go around, keeping Bradley for most of that last year wasn't something i think badly of the FO for. He was always supposed to get 4 years, and he pretty much did. I think that alone will improve our chances the next time we need a coach on the open market.


Yes, it's improvement, but it's Blaine Gabbert 2012 level improvement. - Pirkster

http://youtu.be/ouGM3NWpjxk The Home Hypnotist!

http://youtu.be/XQRFkn0Ly3A Media on the Brain Link!
 
Quote:Peyton must store oxygen in that forehead of his. No way I'd still be alive after all that choking.
 
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(03-28-2018, 05:41 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 03:56 PM)atburg Wrote: I defended Gabbert for 2 years, came out looking like a fool and I owned it! Looks like someone else has a hard time doing the same.

I gave Tom plenty of credit.  If you want to say Caldwell is a good draft guru, I would agree with that.  He has hit more than he misses.  Being a General Manager is a lot more than just getting talent.

The facts speak for themselves

Dave Caldwell as Gm of the team: 15 wins in 4 seasons

Dave got unofficially demoted and Tom took over operations: 12 wins in 1 season.

Dave is a good Scout but you cannot say he is a good GM.  I can see by bringing up old threads the dead season is hitting some hard.

So your entire case against Caldwell rests on one (1) hire-Bradley?
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(This post was last modified: 03-28-2018, 10:14 PM by Jagulars.)

Caldwell: Thanks for coming into my office, Blake. What can I do for you?

Bortles: Caldwell....you've got Norwell, but you don't have a new OC. You were going to help me, Dave. You're going to have to upgrade here. You're going to have to upgrade here.

Caldwell: : I've done far better than help you. I've resurrected you. And I wish to go on completing you slowly. I shall leave you with the same OC, and just like last year; not playing to the strengths of our players in the play-calling just like the championship game...rushing for a yard...rushing for a yard!

Bortles: (looks behind him) KHAAAAAN!

(Echo outside the office)

Bortles: KHAAAAAAN!

Caldwell: Smile
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I assume that was supposed to be funny.
[Image: IMG-1452.jpg]
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This team will be far better than last season. Couldn't resist a Trek reference to lighten up the fellow pessimistic fans.
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(03-28-2018, 10:24 PM)Jagulars Wrote: This team will be far better than last season. Couldn't resist a Trek reference to lighten up the fellow pessimistic fans.

LOL. I like it and we all can use a laugh every now and then
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(03-27-2018, 11:45 AM)Browntrouser Wrote: who revived this post. You need slapped.

If you think you're man enough.
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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(03-28-2018, 10:13 PM)Jagulars Wrote: Caldwell: Thanks for coming into my office, Blake. What can I do for you?

Bortles: Caldwell....you've got Norwell, but you don't have a new OC. You were going to help me, Dave. You're going to have to upgrade here. You're going to have to upgrade here.

Caldwell: : I've done far better than help you. I've resurrected you. And I wish to go on completing you slowly. I shall leave you with the same OC, and just like last year; not playing to the strengths of our players in the play-calling just like the championship game...rushing for a yard...rushing for a yard!

Bortles: (looks behind him) KHAAAAAN!

(Echo outside the office)

Bortles: KHAAAAAAN!

Caldwell: Smile

(03-28-2018, 10:15 PM)Rico Wrote: I assume that was supposed to be funny.

Swing and a miss.
Never argue with idiots. They drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
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(03-28-2018, 05:34 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: Lucky the board dosen't go back that far but if you want a real chuckle, half of these jokers were "ALL IN" on Gene Smith

"IN GENE WE TRUST" *barf*

(03-28-2018, 08:55 AM)Bullseye Wrote: You CAN give him credit.  You just WON'T.

TC did not bring in Ramsey, Jack, Ngakoue, Fowler, Telvin Smith, Linder, Bortles, et al.
That is correct, but Caldwell did have "his coach" with Bradley and gave him years to wreck this team.

The sad fact is, if TC did not return to  the jaguars we probably would of stunk again and Caldwell would be looking for a job now.

I fully disagree with this.
TC barely had any time to really put his stamp on things. Marrone and the coaching staff developed the guys that Caldwell brought in from 2014-2016. Most of our key players were guys Caldwell drafted or signed prior to TC showing up.

You can hate on Caldwell if you want... but to give all blame to him and all credit to Tom is asinine.
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(03-29-2018, 03:36 PM)Kane Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 05:34 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: Lucky the board dosen't go back that far but if you want a real chuckle, half of these jokers were "ALL IN" on Gene Smith

"IN GENE WE TRUST" *barf*

That is correct, but Caldwell did have "his coach" with Bradley and gave him years to wreck this team.

The sad fact is, if TC did not return to  the jaguars we probably would of stunk again and Caldwell would be looking for a job now.

I fully disagree with this.
TC barely had any time to really put his stamp on things. Marrone and the coaching staff developed the guys that Caldwell brought in from 2014-2016. Most of our key players were guys Caldwell drafted or signed prior to TC showing up.

You can hate on Caldwell if you want... but to give all blame to him and all credit to Tom is asinine.

The Usual Suspects™ have been nothing but consistent here.

For the good, they credit Coughlin alone.
For the bad, they blame Caldwell alone.

It was predictable even before the ink was wet on Coughlin's deal.
"You do your own thing in your own time. You should be proud."
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(This post was last modified: 03-29-2018, 04:14 PM by atburg.)

(03-28-2018, 05:41 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 03:56 PM)atburg Wrote: I defended Gabbert for 2 years, came out looking like a fool and I owned it! Looks like someone else has a hard time doing the same.

I gave Tom plenty of credit.  If you want to say Caldwell is a good draft guru, I would agree with that.  He has hit more than he misses.  Being a General Manager is a lot more than just getting talent.

The facts speak for themselves

Dave Caldwell as Gm of the team: 15 wins in 4 seasons

Dave got unofficially demoted and Tom took over operations: 12 wins in 1 season.

Dave is a good Scout but you cannot say he is a good GM.  I can see by bringing up old threads the dead season is hitting some hard.

Tom obviously played a huge role, but don't act like he assembled the roster. And Caldwell was .1-1 (Couldve been 2-0) as a general manager post Gus- pre Tom.
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(This post was last modified: 03-29-2018, 06:47 PM by jaguarmvp.)

(03-28-2018, 07:59 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 05:41 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: I gave Tom plenty of credit.  If you want to say Caldwell is a good draft guru, I would agree with that.  He has hit more than he misses.  Being a General Manager is a lot more than just getting talent.

The facts speak for themselves

Dave Caldwell as Gm of the team: 15 wins in 4 seasons

Dave got unofficially demoted and Tom took over operations: 12 wins in 1 season.

Dave is a good Scout but you cannot say he is a good GM.  I can see by bringing up old threads the dead season is hitting some hard.

So your entire case against Caldwell rests on one (1) hire-Bradley?
No, it rest on 4 of the most historically bad seasons in franchise History.  Dave Caldwell put his plan into place and it bombed. Tom had to come in and save the ship.
[Image: mvp.avia8a99974486b2b89.md.png]
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(03-29-2018, 03:36 PM)Kane Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 05:34 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: Lucky the board dosen't go back that far but if you want a real chuckle, half of these jokers were "ALL IN" on Gene Smith

"IN GENE WE TRUST" *barf*

That is correct, but Caldwell did have "his coach" with Bradley and gave him years to wreck this team.

The sad fact is, if TC did not return to  the jaguars we probably would of stunk again and Caldwell would be looking for a job now.

I fully disagree with this.
TC barely had any time to really put his stamp on things. Marrone and the coaching staff developed the guys that Caldwell brought in from 2014-2016. Most of our key players were guys Caldwell drafted or signed prior to TC showing up.

You can hate on Caldwell if you want... but to give all blame to him and all credit to Tom is asinine.
Disagree all you want but the facts are the facts.  When Tom was brought in as Vice President of operations he said himself he has final say on the roster and the coaches. Marrone is also a decent head coach and do believe he deserves credit. 

I gave Dave Credit but being a good Scout and running a team is 2 totally different things.   Does Dave Caldwell have an eye for talent?  Yes he does. 

Has Dave proven he can build a winning organization?  He HAS NOT.   It was his decisions to strip this team in 2013 while cutting some decent players who went on to have decent careers.  12 wins in 4 years is just flat out disgraceful.  The team was a laughing stock of the league under Dave Caldwell's leadership.
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(03-29-2018, 06:28 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-28-2018, 07:59 PM)Bullseye Wrote: So your entire case against Caldwell rests on one (1) hire-Bradley?
No, it rest on 4 of the most historically bad seasons in franchise History.  Dave Caldwell put his plan into place and it bombed.  Tom had to come in and save the ship.

How can ANYONE blame the first season or two on Caldwell?

Even if he hired a better coach than Bradley, no coach could have won those first 2-3 seasons with the talent on the roster during that time.

ANY GM faced with such a talent depleted roster would need more than one offseason to fix it, especially considering the disaster that was the 2013 draft.

As for TC, he did three key things since serving in his current capacity:

1.  He provided credibility to the FO.  While Caldwell had done a pretty good job drafting talent, he didn't have the results to back him up.  When TC came aboard, he had the reputation that gave the franchise credibility with vets like Campbell.

2.  He placed greater emphasis on special teams.  Caldwell, by his own admission, did not emphasize this part of the game enough.  Before TC got here, Special teams was a dumpster fire for the team.  Last year, with the exception of the Rams game, special teams was a positive factor in most of our games.

3.  He was an enforcer for Marrone.  Make no mistake, Marrone had established himself as a competent head coach before he came to Jacksonville.  However, the time and losing that elapsed since he was coaching Buffalo kind of put his accomplishments in that area on the back burner.  To the extent he needed FO support in case of any locker room issues, TC having his back was huge.  If any player has any sort of beef with Marrone, he likely won't be able to play clubhouse lawyer with TC.

If I had to add a 4th thing, drafting Fournette was key too.  I don't know that Caldwell wouldn't have drafted him absent TC's influence, but I firmly believe TC influenced that first pick.

Having said that, Caldwell assembled the bulk of this roster.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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(This post was last modified: 03-29-2018, 08:01 PM by atburg.)

(03-29-2018, 06:45 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 03:36 PM)Kane Wrote: I fully disagree with this.
TC barely had any time to really put his stamp on things. Marrone and the coaching staff developed the guys that Caldwell brought in from 2014-2016. Most of our key players were guys Caldwell drafted or signed prior to TC showing up.

You can hate on Caldwell if you want... but to give all blame to him and all credit to Tom is asinine.
Disagree all you want but the facts are the facts.  When Tom was brought in as Vice President of operations he said himself he has final say on the roster and the coaches. Marrone is also a decent head coach and do believe he deserves credit. 

I gave Dave Credit but being a good Scout and running a team is 2 totally different things.   Does Dave Caldwell have an eye for talent?  Yes he does. 

Has Dave proven he can build a winning organization?  He HAS NOT.   It was his decisions to strip this team in 2013 while cutting some decent players who went on to have decent careers.  12 wins in 4 years is just flat out disgraceful.  The team was a laughing stock of the league under Dave Caldwell's leadership.

I guess Tom was responsible for promoting Doug to head coach in 2016 as well? Again, you started a thread that failed miserably. Im guessing if you had been right, you would've been the one to bump it up.
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(03-29-2018, 07:06 PM)Bullseye Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 06:28 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: No, it rest on 4 of the most historically bad seasons in franchise History.  Dave Caldwell put his plan into place and it bombed.  Tom had to come in and save the ship.

How can ANYONE blame the first season or two on Caldwell?

Even if he hired a better coach than Bradley, no coach could have won those first 2-3 seasons with the talent on the roster during that time.

ANY GM faced with such a talent depleted roster would need more than one offseason to fix it, especially considering the disaster that was the 2013 draft.

As for TC, he did three key things since serving in his current capacity:

1.  He provided credibility to the FO.  While Caldwell had done a pretty good job drafting talent, he didn't have the results to back him up.  When TC came aboard, he had the reputation that gave the franchise credibility with vets like Campbell.

2.  He placed greater emphasis on special teams.  Caldwell, by his own admission, did not emphasize this part of the game enough.  Before TC got here, Special teams was a dumpster fire for the team.  Last year, with the exception of the Rams game, special teams was a positive factor in most of our games.

3.  He was an enforcer for Marrone.  Make no mistake, Marrone had established himself as a competent head coach before he came to Jacksonville.  However, the time and losing that elapsed since he was coaching Buffalo kind of put his accomplishments in that area on the back burner.  To the extent he needed FO support in case of any locker room issues, TC having his back was huge.  If any player has any sort of beef with Marrone, he likely won't be able to play clubhouse lawyer with TC.

If I had to add a 4th thing, drafting Fournette was key too.  I don't know that Caldwell wouldn't have drafted him absent TC's influence, but I firmly believe TC influenced that first pick.

Having said that, Caldwell assembled the bulk of this roster.
What are you arguing?  I already said Caldwell has the eye for talent and I give him credit for buidling most of the roster.  That being said, acquiring the talent is only part of building an organization. 

To me if Dave was the Top Dog before Coughlin and now Coughlin is the top dog that means Dave got demoted. 

I guess you forget under Dave and Gus it was like a college Dorm in the Jags locker room.  Ping pong, videogames, ice cream parties, you name it was going on. 

Tom came in here and instantly changed this culture. Tom came in cleaned house and put this franchise on the right track.  Dave Caldwell has not proven he can do the same.
[Image: mvp.avia8a99974486b2b89.md.png]
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(03-29-2018, 07:59 PM)atburg Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 06:45 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote: Disagree all you want but the facts are the facts.  When Tom was brought in as Vice President of operations he said himself he has final say on the roster and the coaches. Marrone is also a decent head coach and do believe he deserves credit. 

I gave Dave Credit but being a good Scout and running a team is 2 totally different things.   Does Dave Caldwell have an eye for talent?  Yes he does. 

Has Dave proven he can build a winning organization?  He HAS NOT.   It was his decisions to strip this team in 2013 while cutting some decent players who went on to have decent careers.  12 wins in 4 years is just flat out disgraceful.  The team was a laughing stock of the league under Dave Caldwell's leadership.

I guess Tom was responsible for promoting Doug to head coach in 2016 as well? Again, you started a thread that failed miserably.  Im guessing if you had been right, you would've been the one to bump it up.

I normally don't go around digging 50 pages back looking for old threads to attempt to say, "I told you so."

Tom Coughlin had to come in and reset this organization, he gets the majority of the credit.  Strange that we have our first winning season in years under proven leadership is it not?
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(03-29-2018, 08:04 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 07:06 PM)Bullseye Wrote: How can ANYONE blame the first season or two on Caldwell?

Even if he hired a better coach than Bradley, no coach could have won those first 2-3 seasons with the talent on the roster during that time.

ANY GM faced with such a talent depleted roster would need more than one offseason to fix it, especially considering the disaster that was the 2013 draft.

As for TC, he did three key things since serving in his current capacity:

1.  He provided credibility to the FO.  While Caldwell had done a pretty good job drafting talent, he didn't have the results to back him up.  When TC came aboard, he had the reputation that gave the franchise credibility with vets like Campbell.

2.  He placed greater emphasis on special teams.  Caldwell, by his own admission, did not emphasize this part of the game enough.  Before TC got here, Special teams was a dumpster fire for the team.  Last year, with the exception of the Rams game, special teams was a positive factor in most of our games.

3.  He was an enforcer for Marrone.  Make no mistake, Marrone had established himself as a competent head coach before he came to Jacksonville.  However, the time and losing that elapsed since he was coaching Buffalo kind of put his accomplishments in that area on the back burner.  To the extent he needed FO support in case of any locker room issues, TC having his back was huge.  If any player has any sort of beef with Marrone, he likely won't be able to play clubhouse lawyer with TC.

If I had to add a 4th thing, drafting Fournette was key too.  I don't know that Caldwell wouldn't have drafted him absent TC's influence, but I firmly believe TC influenced that first pick.

Having said that, Caldwell assembled the bulk of this roster.
What are you arguing?  I already said Caldwell has the eye for talent and I give him credit for buidling most of the roster.  That being said, acquiring the talent is only part of building an organization. 

To me if Dave was the Top Dog before Coughlin and now Coughlin is the top dog that means Dave got demoted. 

I guess you forget under Dave and Gus it was like a college Dorm in the Jags locker room.  Ping pong, videogames, ice cream parties, you name it was going on. 

Tom came in here and instantly changed this culture. Tom came in cleaned house and put this franchise on the right track.  Dave Caldwell has not proven he can do the same.

Wrong. Marrone changed that Bobblehead Baskin Robbins crap the first week he was interim head coach, and the result on the field was immediate. December, 2016, weeks before TC was hired. You absolutely couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

(03-29-2018, 08:10 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 07:59 PM)atburg Wrote: I guess Tom was responsible for promoting Doug to head coach in 2016 as well? Again, you started a thread that failed miserably.  Im guessing if you had been right, you would've been the one to bump it up.

I normally don't go around digging 50 pages back looking for old threads to attempt to say, "I told you so."

Tom Coughlin had to come in and reset this organization, he gets the majority of the credit.  Strange that we have our first winning season in years under proven leadership is it not?

I just did it to have a chuckle at the expense of the Doom Brigade, and you've made it even better with your feeble attempts to still be right. Thanks, you've lifted my spirits!
“An empty vessel makes the loudest sound, so they that have the least wit are the greatest babblers.”. - Plato

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Holy. Molé.

The whole "Everything good that happened in 2017 was Coughlin, not Caldwell"  thing is approaching hilarity in this thread.
Folks on this tip need to seriously think a little harder.

Blaming Caldwell for Bradley's 2016 failures - but then not crediting Caldwell for primarily the same team under Marrone is some chump-a-licious garbage. The team's success in 2017 should be (in part) credited to years of hard work from David Caldwell - like it or not. 
The other credit goes to Marrone and his staff for organizing the talent much more efficiently (and quickly)  than Gus did. Coughlin's 2017 input is nebulous at best - and the first move everyone quickly assumed was "his idea" unfortunately failed miserably. (Branden Albert) 

I'm very glad TC signed on and I think he will absolutely make Caldwell a better GM and he's absolutely aiding this franchise.  However  -  I do believe it's complete fantasy to think that the turn-around from 2016 to 2017 was some magical sea-change resulting primarily from Coughlin's executive role. That's silly. 

Remember   -  when Coughlin initially came to interview, it was ostensibly for the coaching gig. Not a F.O. role. 
Kahn (and maybe his consultants) it would seem, proposed to TC that he take on the Exec/Football Czar position instead.
 In Kahn's interview the other day it seemed clear that Caldwell and the Kahns were already all in on Marrone as HC - then they convinced TC to go the F.O. route and his signing off on Marrone as HC was part of the deal.

Please tell me if I'm crazy for seeing it this way - but all the "tea leaves" make this ^  breakdown seem pretty apparent to me.
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(This post was last modified: 03-30-2018, 03:43 AM by Bullseye.)

(03-29-2018, 08:04 PM)jaguarmvp Wrote:
(03-29-2018, 07:06 PM)Bullseye Wrote: How can ANYONE blame the first season or two on Caldwell?

Even if he hired a better coach than Bradley, no coach could have won those first 2-3 seasons with the talent on the roster during that time.

ANY GM faced with such a talent depleted roster would need more than one offseason to fix it, especially considering the disaster that was the 2013 draft.

As for TC, he did three key things since serving in his current capacity:

1.  He provided credibility to the FO.  While Caldwell had done a pretty good job drafting talent, he didn't have the results to back him up.  When TC came aboard, he had the reputation that gave the franchise credibility with vets like Campbell.

2.  He placed greater emphasis on special teams.  Caldwell, by his own admission, did not emphasize this part of the game enough.  Before TC got here, Special teams was a dumpster fire for the team.  Last year, with the exception of the Rams game, special teams was a positive factor in most of our games.

3.  He was an enforcer for Marrone.  Make no mistake, Marrone had established himself as a competent head coach before he came to Jacksonville.  However, the time and losing that elapsed since he was coaching Buffalo kind of put his accomplishments in that area on the back burner.  To the extent he needed FO support in case of any locker room issues, TC having his back was huge.  If any player has any sort of beef with Marrone, he likely won't be able to play clubhouse lawyer with TC.

If I had to add a 4th thing, drafting Fournette was key too.  I don't know that Caldwell wouldn't have drafted him absent TC's influence, but I firmly believe TC influenced that first pick.

Having said that, Caldwell assembled the bulk of this roster.
What are you arguing?  I already said Caldwell has the eye for talent and I give him credit for buidling most of the roster.  That being said, acquiring the talent is only part of building an organization. 

To me if Dave was the Top Dog before Coughlin and now Coughlin is the top dog that means Dave got demoted. 

I guess you forget under Dave and Gus it was like a college Dorm in the Jags locker room.  Ping pong, videogames, ice cream parties, you name it was going on. 

Tom came in here and instantly changed this culture. Tom came in cleaned house and put this franchise on the right track.  Dave Caldwell has not proven he can do the same.

Talent is the main factor.  I agree it isn't the only factor, but it is the main factor.

Caldwell fired Bradley before TC got here, and he named Marrone HC.

TC cleaned house?  Who exactly did he clean out?  I seem to recall all of the complaining on this board about how the bulk of the coaching staff-especially the coordinators- remained intact.

TC vetoed the hiring of DBs coach Donnie Henderson, and was likely key in hiring Keenan McCardell, Perry Fewell and Joe DeCamillis, considering all three either played for him (Keenan) or coached under him previously (Fewell, DeCamillis).

(03-30-2018, 12:36 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: Holy. Molé.

The whole "Everything good that happened in 2017 was Coughlin, not Caldwell"  thing is approaching hilarity in this thread.
Folks on this tip need to seriously think a little harder.

Blaming Caldwell for Bradley's 2016 failures - but then not crediting Caldwell for primarily the same team under Marrone is some chump-a-licious garbage. The team's success in 2017 should be (in part) credited to years of hard work from David Caldwell - like it or not. 
The other credit goes to Marrone and his staff for organizing the talent much more efficiently (and quickly)  than Gus did. Coughlin's 2017 input is nebulous at best - and the first move everyone quickly assumed was "his idea" unfortunately failed miserably. (Branden Albert) 

I'm very glad TC signed on and I think he will absolutely make Caldwell a better GM and he's absolutely aiding this franchise.  However  -  I do believe it's complete fantasy to think that the turn-around from 2016 to 2017 was some magical sea-change resulting primarily from Coughlin's executive role. That's silly. 

Remember   -  when Coughlin initially came to interview, it was ostensibly for the coaching gig. Not a F.O. role. 
Kahn (and maybe his consultants) it would seem, proposed to TC that he take on the Exec/Football Czar position instead.
 In Kahn's interview the other day it seemed clear that Caldwell and the Kahns were already all in on Marrone as HC - then they convinced TC to go the F.O. route and his signing off on Marrone as HC was part of the deal.

Please tell me if I'm crazy for seeing it this way - but all the "tea leaves" make this ^  breakdown seem pretty apparent to me.
I see it pretty much the same way.
 

Worst to 1st.  Curse Reversed!





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